After nine weekends and 18 races, the curtain is ready to fall on the Formula 3 season at Monza this weekend. Prema has already claimed the teams’ championship, so all the focus is on the drivers’ battle.
By Motorsport.com's maths, there are four drivers with a realistic chance of topping the order come the end of the weekend, while three others remain in the mix but would require huge points swings to snatch the crown.
However, a particularly weird quirk in the history books shows that no F3 title winner since the championship's current iteration began in 2019 has won on the final weekend of the season. With the margins so tight this time around, this is a record that may now fall.
Here, we take a look at how the key contenders are currently faring.
1. Leonardo Fornaroli - Trident
Points: 129
Wins: 0
Age: 19
Leonardo Fornaroli has been a picture of consistency across the season, failing to score points in only two races and finishing on the podium six times. However, this total is yet to include a race win and features only one second place.
It should be noted that no driver has secured the title since GP3 and the Formula 3 European Championship merged without winning at least once. Clement Novalak holds the record for the highest-placed finisher without a victory – taking third in the standings in a winless 2021 campaign with Trident.
But, with steady points gains through 10 finishes between third and seventh, second-year racer Fornaroli has kept himself in the mix to deliver back-to-back titles for Trident as others endured mixed weekends.
Finishing third in each of the past two feature races in Hungary and Belgium, the Italian is arguably finding form at the perfect moment. But, with a slender one-point lead and a potential winner-takes-all scenario, Fornaroli breaking his win duck could be crucial to see off his rivals.
2. Gabriele Mini - Prema
Points: 128
Wins: 1
Age: 19
After a winning campaign with Hitech in 2023, Gabriele Mini’s season got off to a promising start with points finishes in each of the opening six races and a victory in the eighth – the feature race at Monaco.
Leaving the principality, the Alpine junior driver topped the standings and looked on course to cement his advantage, building on a solid foundation of results. However, almost the reverse has occurred. He went scoreless in Spain and Hungary and has collected points in just five of the 10 last races.
It should be noted that this number includes a trio of runner-up results, two of which came in the more lucrative feature races at the Red Bull Ring and Silverstone. In fact, across the past four weekends, Mini has outscored his championship-leading rival by 56 to 45.
Separating the two Italian sophomores is a difficult task, as is picking a favourite, with the home crowd likely to cheer on both in equal measure. But as Mini has previous experience of winning titles - having taken Italian F4 glory in 2020 - perhaps even with a one-point deficit he may hold a slight edge.
While Fornaroli is the only Trident driver gunning for glory, Mini’s Prema team-mates (Dino Beganovic and Arvid Lindblad) are both still in the title hunt. In a battle of fine margins, could this play in Fornaroli's favour?
3. Luke Browning - Hitech
Points: 123
Wins: 2
Age: 22
Macau Grand Prix winner Luke Browning entered the season as one of the favourites to top the order come Monza and remains well positioned to achieve this, although the matter is not entirely in his own hands.
The Hitech driver has been left playing catch-up due to a frustratingly consistent inability to score regular points in sprint races. His record of scoring points in just two of the nine sprint races this term has severely hampered his charge. Of those gunning for the title, only Christian Mansell has endured more point-less races than Browning's eight.
Despite also suffering poor luck and making several costly errors in qualifying, he is the only driver in the field to have scored more than one pole position. But, given how powerful the tow is during races at Monza, this is a strength that is unlikely to prove decisive this weekend.
Monza qualifying has typically been a frenetic affair with all 30 drivers bunching in an attempt to get the tow on the final lap. But, in order to negate this danger, the championship has enacted a Monaco-like format for the weekend, with only half the field taking to the track at any one time during a split qualifying session.
Unlike those around him, Browning’s form has never been entirely brilliant or poor, but his weekends have been almost entirely mixed. Nailing a complete weekend for the first time since Monaco is essential if he is to overcome those ahead.
4. Arvid Lindblad - Prema
Points: 113
Wins: 4
Age: 17
Perhaps the most frustrating driver of those at the front has been Arvid Lindblad. While the Prema racer’s speed is undoubted and has been evident throughout the season, especially with a stunning double win at Silverstone, his luck since that moment has been woeful.
Lindblad has failed to record a single point in the most recent four races, leaving him trailing by 16 points. Should this form continue, and Fornaroli scores his maiden win in the sprint race, he would be knocked out of the battle ahead of the feature contest.
Of those viewed by Motorsport.com as having more than simply a mathematical hope of becoming the champion, he is the only driver in such a precarious position.
However, he is also the only driver with a serious chance of success that is in his rookie campaign. Factor this in, and the Briton’s achievements appear even greater.
The rest
Dino Beganovic (Prema), Christian Mansell (ART) and Oliver Goethe (Campos) are the three remaining drivers who have a sniff at the title, but would require much more than a minor miracle to overcome the four leaders. Of the trio, Ferrari junior Beganovic is the best placed on 100 points, with Mansell on 97 and Goethe on 94.
As is the case with Lindblad, the trio could be out of the mix following Saturday’s sprint race. Combined, they have three victories. The 2022 Formula Regional European champion Beganovic has won twice, Geothe (Euroformula Open champion in 2022) once while Mansell, like Fornaroli, is yet to top the order.
Beganovic and Mansell can take solace from the fact that, of the leaders, only Fornaroli has outscored them across the past two weekends. But the in-form Callum Voisin (Rodin) and Noel Leon (Van Amersfoort Racing) – the best performing drivers over Hungary and Spa with 45 and 39 points, respectively – could throw a spanner or two in the works.
While harbouring dreams of overcoming their respective mountains, it is more likely that the trio will use the final weekend of the season to posture and put themselves in the shop window for a 2025 F2 seat.
