The Dutch driver secured a clean sweep of pole, fastest lap and victory in Qatar – just a day after he was crowned champion in the Sprint race – and with another Sprint this weekend, there are two more opportunities for top spot.
A Verstappen mistake on the Saturday in Qatar led to defeat by McLaren’s Oscar Piastri and if he slips up again the usual drivers will be ready to pounce, although some new upgrades could upset the order of those challengers.
POLE PERFORMANCE
As with all sprint races, there will be limited preparation time before qualifying for the main race, making it vital for teams to nail their set-up quickly. Anyone who does not could risk a qualifying knockout or a low grid position.
Verstappen (9/25) has claimed pole in the last two races but he is still beatable and has actually only had three poles from the last seven. Carlos Sainz (14/1) and Oscar Piastri (12/1) are the two drivers with most recent form.
SPRINT SUPERIORITY
Piastri hit the jackpot in Qatar with a sprint pole and victory. He is 12/1 to win the Sprint Shootout in Austin, while Verstappen is at 9/25, Lando Norris 7/1, Charles Leclerc 12/1, Sainz 14/1 and the two Mercedes at 18/1.
The latter seems potentially tempting odds given that Mercedes will be bringing what Technical Director James Allison described as a “useful” development to Austin, a new floor promising “small gains” that could make a big difference.
MAIN RACE CHALLENGERS
Red Bull has only been defeated in once race this season, by Sainz in Singapore, and they are 9/50 for another win. More tempting, given the form, is McLaren, the next favourites at 28/5 for a team win, while Ferrari and Mercedes are 12/1.
Pick one of the two McLaren drivers, however, and those odds rise to 11/1 for Norris and 12/1 for Piastri – although McLaren has warned its impressive recent pace may have been accentuated by the high-speed nature of the last two tracks.
A non-Verstappen victory is always a long shot – he is at 23/100 for another win – but if Mercedes’ upgrades do work, that could put them back ahead of McLaren and Hamilton is at 23/10 for a podium, with George Russell at 57/20.
POINTS PLAYERS
Alex Albon climbed from 17th to seventh in the Qatar Sprint although he did not do so well in the race. The Williams driver is due a return to the points and he is 6/4 to claim a top 10 finish in Austin.
Haas will be bringing a huge upgrade for what is one of three home races for the US-based team. The sweeping changes move the car towards a Red Bull concept, with almost all of the bodywork being changed, and could put them in the mix.
The team’s last points came three races ago, when Kevin Magnussen was tenth. He is 7/1 to do so again while Nico Hulkenberg is at 4//1, with 44/1 for a double. The chances of a top six are very slim, but both drivers are at 69/1 for that.
The Alfa Romeo Stake team brought a significant upgrade to the Qatar race and it delivered with a double points finish. Expect to see them in with a chance of points too, with Valtteri Bottas at 7/2 and Zhou Guanyu at 4/1.
Finally, Daniel Ricciardo should be back in the AlphaTauri having completed a demo run last weekend. He has failed to score a point in his two races this year but is 4/1 to do so at what is his favourite track, although the chances are low.
CHANCE CHOICES
If Mercedes’ upgrades work well, they could be a good bet for a fastest lap at odds of 7/1. Verstappen (53/100) has claimed fastest lap in the last two races, but Hamilton (14/1 himself) did so three races ago. Russell is also 14/1.
There are still odds being taken on second place in the World Championship, with Sergio Perez ahead of Lewis Hamilton by 30 points. The British driver has gained 25 points in the last three races and is currently 14/5 to finish runner-up.
For more betting odds and the latest markets on this weekend’s Grand Prix and all Formula 1 races, head over to stake.com
NOTE: Odds correct at time of writing
