Formula One finally had a different look last weekend when Red Bull was finally defeated and Carlos Sainz won for Ferrari in a nose-to-tail three-team finish – but does that mean the reigning champions’ dominance is over? Probably not.
Verstappen is still far and away the favourite for victory in Japan – his odds of winning are 29/100, barely any different to what they were last weekend, and the Singapore defeat was likely more a blip than a cliff-edge drop in form.
After that race, Verstappen revealed the car had been tough to set up on the simulator even before the team arrived at the track, and he also revealed that the same car, on a ‘virtual’ Suzuka, had “felt amazing.”
The team’s struggles were caused by a new floor that did not work as well as expected and track resurfacing and circuit changes that did not suit the car. Suzuka could see a return to norm – but good odds can still be found.
POLE PERFORMANCE
In the last five races, Verstappen has only been on pole once (in the Netherlands) yet he is still 1/2 favourite this weekend. Past form backs that up, as last year Red Bull topped every part of qualifying and the Dutch driver ended up on pole.
That said, Ferrari was close, with Leclerc and Sainz second and third in a top three covered by just 0.057s. Having just completed three poles from four, they could be good value at 27/5 for either car, Charles Leclerc 44/5 or Sainz 9/1.
PODIUM CHALLENGERS
Heavy rain can often cause havoc at Suzuka but although it did so last year, Verstappen still came through the spray to beat team-mate Sergio Perez to victory by almost 30 seconds. This year, however, the sun is due to shine.
That makes Verstappen hot favourite, assuming Red Bull is on form, as Perez has only finished ahead of him twice this season, winning both times. His odds are 11/1 to win, though, so if Verstappen’s car falters, he could pick up the pieces.
One driver on the grid who is a master of Suzuka is five-time winner Lewis Hamilton. He was in the mix in Singapore and is a very good value 17/1 for victory or 9/5 for top three, with 10/1 for either Mercedes to come home first.
Suzuka, like Silverstone and Spa, has some high-speed corners that could cause tyre wear issues. Ferrari struggled with that early on this year but seem to have overcome it and both drivers are 18/1 to win or a good value 14/5 for a podium.
McLaren are strong with high-speed corners – they were second and fourth at Silverstone – and Lando Norris is coming off the back of his equal best result, with second. He is 14/1 to win, but odds of 143/100 for top three are not great.
POINTS PLAYERS
The top order is hard to predict right now – three different teams went for the win in Singapore and none of those were Red Bull! That means small errors or gains will make the difference between a podium and mid-range points.
As a result of that, it is hard to find value in top six finisher odds. Pierre Gasly is at 12/1, however, and he has achieved that in two of the last three races. Alpine has struggled in high-speed corners but he was also sixth in the Spa sprint.
As for the top-ten, Liam Lawson took his first points score in Singapore and is at 9/4 for a repeat. He has already raced at Suzuka this year in Super Formula, climbing from ninth to fourth. At 39/1, a top six finish could even be tempting.
CHANCE CHOICES
There could have been an all-British podium in Singapore, with Norris, Hamilton and George Russell all in contention in the closing laps. The odds of a British winner in Japan are 29/5.
Despite all their success, Red Bull has not set a fastest lap in any of the last four races. Of those, Suzuka maestro Hamilton has set two and is a tempting 10/1 to do so again in Japan, with a fastest lap for either Mercedes at 5/1.
Tipping a team for a two-car podium can be good value. The odds of Red Bull achieving a double – which has happened eight times this year – are 9/10 bit Mercedes – the only other team to have done so – are 41/5 and Ferrari 11/1.
For more betting odds and the latest markets on the Japanese Grand Prix and all Formula 1 races, head over to stake.com
NOTE: Odds correct at time of writing
