Welcome to the Tuesday, September 5th, Brew.
By: Joseph Greaney
Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:
- Explore the Heart of American Governance: Join Our Federalism Learning Journey today!
- Rhode Island and Utah hold special-election primaries for open congressional seats
- Donald Trump’s share price in PredictIt’s 2024 Republican presidential primary market highest since at least September 2022
Explore the Heart of American Governance: Join Our Federalism Learning Journey today!
Announcing our latest educational series – Ballotpedia’s Federalism Learning Journey! This free, comprehensive, three-part email series delves into the captivating realm of federalism.
Federalism lies at the core of the United States’ governmental structure. It defines the relationship between the central authority and individual states, playing a pivotal role in shaping our nation’s governance, policies, and rights.
The Federalism Learning Journey is entirely free and conveniently delivered straight to your inbox. Your Journey Awaits:
Day 1: Federalism: What is it, and what isn’t it?
In the first installment, we will delve into the historical foundations of federalism.
Day 2: Types of federalism
Building on the historical context, we will explore how federalism operates in the modern era. You will gain insights into the different forms federalism can take and their implications for governance.
Day 3: Arguments about federalism
The final part of this series focuses on the major areas of debate related to federalism in contemporary times.
Claim your spot in this free, limited series! Learning Journeys are interactive email series from Ballotpedia that help you learn more about important topics in American government at your own pace. Each email in the series is packed with explainers, examples, and interactive content to help you master the topic and share your newfound expertise with your friends.
Click here to sign up for our Federalism Learning Journey today.
Rhode Island and Utah hold special-election primaries for open congressional seats
Two states, Rhode Island and Utah, are holding primaries today, September 5, 2023, to fill congressional vacancies. These are the second and third congressional special elections in 2023.
In Rhode Island, 11 candidates are running in the Democratic special primary for the 1st Congressional District. The candidate with the most votes will advance to the general election on Nov 7. The previous incumbent, David Cicilline (D), resigned on May 31, 2023, to run the Rhode Island Foundation. Ballotpedia previously wrote about this race in the Aug. 29, 2023, Brew,
Among the 11 candidates are Rhode Island’s lieutenant governor, three incumbent state legislators, one local official, two former state representatives, and a former White House aide. Gabe Amo, Sandra Cano, Don Carlson, Sabina Matos, and Aaron Regunberg have received the most media attention and endorsements. According to Roll Call’s Daniela Altimari, the Democratic primary “has sparked interest from national groups who view it as a proxy battle for the ideological soul of the Democratic Party.” Candidates have staked out varying positions on law enforcement, climate change, defense spending, immigration, and more.
The winner of the Democratic special primary will face the winner of the Republican special primary between Terri Flynn and Gerry Leonard. In 2020, former Rep. Cicilline won re-election with 64% of the vote.
In Utah, Becky Edwards, Bruce Hough, and Celeste Maloy are running in the Republican primary for the 2nd Congressional District. The winner will advance to a general election on Nov. 21, 2023. Incumbent Rep. Chris Stewart (R), first elected in 2012, will resign on Sept. 15.
The winner of the Republican special primary will face Democratic candidate Kathleen Riebe. The Democratic special primary for this election was canceled. In 2020, Rep. Stewart won re-election with 59.7% of the vote.
Maloy advanced to the primary after she received the most delegate support at the Republican Party’s June 24 convention. Edwards and Hough submitted signatures in order to appear on the ballot.
This is Utah’s first U.S. House special election since 2017, and the fifth in state history. Ballotpedia previously wrote about this race in the Aug. 22, 2023, Brew.
Originally, Utah was set to hold municipal elections this year with primaries on Aug. 15 and a general election on Nov. 7, corresponding with most other states’ general elections. That changed on June 7, when Stewart officially submitted his resignation letter to Gov. Spencer Cox (R).
Under state law, special congressional elections in Utah must be held at least 90 days after the governor receives a resignation letter and be on the same day as a municipal general election, a presidential primary, a regular primary, or a regular general election. Instead, Cox called a special legislative session, where lawmakers adjusted the entire state’s election calendar by setting the Sept. 5 primary, exactly 90 days after Stewart submitted his resignation, and moving the general election back two weeks. The new election date avoids a temporary vacancy in Stewart’s seat, which would have left the 2nd District without representation and lowered congressional Republicans’ already-narrow majority.
These special elections will be the second and third special elections held to complete a term in the U.S. House during the 118th Congress. Sixty-seven special congressional elections were called during the 113th through 117th Congresses. During that time, special elections were called for 23 seats vacated by Democrats and 44 vacated by Republicans.
Republicans currently hold a 222-212 majority in the House of Representatives with one vacancy.
Donald Trump’s share price in PredictIt’s 2024 Republican presidential primary market highest since at least September 2022
As of Aug. 29, 2023, former President Donald Trump (R) leads in both RealClearPolitics’ (RCP) Republican presidential primary polling average and PredictIt’s Republican presidential primary market.
Trump’s polling average currently stands at 54%, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) at 13%. No other candidate has more than a 10% polling average. In PredictIt’s Republican primary market, Trump’s share price is $0.66, the highest share price he’s had since at least Sept. 2022. Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy’s (R) share price is $0.15, and DeSantis’ share price is $0.14. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10.
A candidate’s polling average reflects an estimate of the vote share a candidate would receive if the election were held today, while a PredictIt share price roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of a candidate winning the election.
President Joe Biden (D) leads both RCP’s Democratic primary polling average and PredictIt’s Democratic primary market. Biden has a 66% polling average, followed by lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 13%. No other candidate is polling at or above 10%. Biden has a $0.70 PredictIt share price. One other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10. California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) stands at $0.17.
Newsom is the only candidate of those mentioned above to have not announced a 2024 presidential campaign.
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