The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has just predicted that there is a greater than 66% probability that at least one of the years from 2023 to 2027 will witness a global mean surface temperature rise of 1.5 o C above the average in the years 1850-1900.
Clearly, nobody in the world today lives in the global mean temperature. It then becomes critical to understand what crossing the 1.5 o C threshold crossing will mean for specific regions, including for a country like India.
To do this, we must first understand how these multi-year forecasts are different from the much discussed El Niño forecasts for 2023 as well as from the longer-term climate projections, which the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released during 2021-22, as its Assessment Report 6.
