Swansea City’s hopes of a late promotion-winning run via the play-offs this season have been given a two per cent chance of becoming reality, according to expert FiveThirtyEight’s calculations.
The Swans are the Championship’s in-form team at the moment, having won six out of their last seven games, a run which started with consecutive wins over local rivals - the 2-0 victory against Bristol City and that win at Cardiff City Stadium.
Despite Saturday’s comprehensive victory over Norwich City continuing this run and making it 19 points from a possible 21, the data suggests that the likelihood of Matt Grimes making the 107-step journey up to the Royal Box at Wembley is pretty slim.
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The 3-0 victory at Carrow Road put them level on points with the Canaries in 11th, with only goal difference separating them. With Russell Martin’s men showing no sign of slowing down, members of the Jack Army could be forgiven for still dreaming of the impossible.
Standing in their way currently is a three-point gap and seven-goal swing on sixth-placed Sunderland, with Coventry a point above but on the same goal difference. Since Luton look likely to have secured third place and Middlesbrough fourth, it leaves those final two play-off spots up for grabs.
There’s just the small matter of the chasing pack from ninth to seventh who look far better placed to catch the Black Cats and Sky Blues than Swansea are at the moment - in particular, Blackburn Rovers and West Bromwich Albion, who could leapfrog both sides if they win their midweek games in hand against Burnley and Sheffield United respectively.
Seventh-placed Millwall sit level on points with Sunderland after the same number of games, although they are three goals worse off. The Lions have a 43 per cent chance of play-off glory despite dropping out of the top six after consecutive losses to Birmingham and bottom-placed Wigan, and will be aiming to turn this around with a victory away to relegation-battling Blackpool on Saturday. Three points against the Seasiders has the potential to set up a tasty final day shootout at The Den against fellow hopefuls Blackburn over the final play-off place.
Also hoping to still be in contention by then are Preston. Lying in 10th, and despite being a point above Swansea and Norwich, the Lilywhites only have a three per cent likelihood of promotion, which is likely down to their poor goal difference.
Finding the back of the net has been a problem for the Lilywhites this season with them ranking fifth lowest in the division for goals scored with 44, almost half the number fourth-placed Boro have put away. However, it’s been their ability to hold on to narrow leads which has put them in play-off contention, albeit narrowly. Even with this defensive steel, the -8 in the GD column looks as if it may prove to be one hurdle too far going into the final two matchdays.
FiveThirtyEight’s Championship play-off predictions in full:
5. Coventry City – 69 pts (61% chance of promotion via play-offs)
6. Millwall – 69 pts (43%)
7. Blackburn – 68 pts (30%)
8. Sunderland – 68 pts (39%)
9. West Brom – 67 pts (21%)
10. Swansea – 65 pts (2%)
11. Preston – 65 pts (3%)
12. Norwich – 65 pts (2%)
FiveThirtyEight simulate a team's remaining league matches 20,000 times using weighted probabilities for each result with difficulty of opponent, as well as form and prior results, considered to reach a prediction. Every week the table is updated based on this, with those on winning streaks seeing improved forecasts and those on a poor run subsequently penalised.
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