Households across the UK should not anticipate an immediate impact on their energy bills following the escalating crisis in the Middle East.
However, experts caution that sustained volatility could lead to price hikes in the longer term.
Analysts at Cornwall Insight suggest that prolonged uncertainty regarding supplies could complicate summer refilling efforts, gradually pushing up prices for the coming winter.
They noted, however, "no suggestion of immediate system stress." Tensions stem from Iran's warning to vessels to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, a point through which approximately 20 per cent of global oil and gas transits.
It follows retaliatory attacks on some ships in response to US and Israeli strikes that resulted in the death of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
At least 150 tankers have now dropped anchor in open Gulf waters beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
Britain’s benchmark gas price, NBP, leapt by 54 per cent on Monday. Brent crude, the global benchmark oil price, was up about 9 per cent at 79.40 US dollars per barrel.
Qatar’s state-owned energy company QatarEnergy has also halted its production of LNG following Iranian attacks on some of its facilities.
Cornwall Insight said the UK was less reliant on Qatari LNG than during the post-Ukraine crisis, with Qatar supplying about 6.5 per cent of UK LNG imports over the past year, compared with about 69 per cent from the US since 2023.
However, it said this could lead to greater competition for LNG from other sources, pushing up global prices.
Dr Craig Lowrey, principal consultant at Cornwall Insight, said: “The UK’s dependence on global gas markets means movements in international wholesale prices feed directly into domestic bills.
“The situation in the Middle East and the risk of disruption to liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz pushed gas prices up yesterday and further again today.”
He added: “For those customers on the price cap, the April to June price is now set, and therefore there should be no immediate impact on bills.
“Looking ahead, the cap is calculated using an average wholesale price over three months, and we are only at the very start of the July to September assessment period, so the long-term impact will depend on how long gas prices stay elevated and how long this period of volatility remains.”
Other analysts warned that prolonged disruptions to gas exports from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates risked a “repeat of 2022”, when household bills rocketed.
In a research note, investment bank Stifel said the European gas price at 100 euros per megawatt hour would be enough to drive the UK’s energy price cap to £2,500 a year.
The cap currently stands at £1,758 per year, and is due to fall to £1,641 from April 1.
Jess Ralston, head of energy at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) said: “The Energy Crisis Commission warned that the UK remained dangerously underprepared for another energy crisis.
“Nobody knows exactly how the next few weeks will play out, but with homes and businesses still facing the debt and after-effects of the last gas crisis, people will understandably be concerned.”
