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Barchart
Barchart
Rich Asplund

Expectations For a Global Sugar Surplus Continue to Weigh on Prices

October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) today is down -0.26 (-1.57%), and August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ25) is down -13.60 (-2.79%).

Sugar prices today gave up an early advance and fell sharply, with London sugar posting a 1-week low.  Sugar prices have plummeted over the past three months due to expectations of a global sugar surplus.  On July 2, October NY sugar posted a contract low, and Aug London sugar posted a 3.75-year nearest-futures low, while on June 30 the July NY sugar contract posted a 4.25-year low on the nearest-futures chart.  On June 30, commodities trader Czarnikow projected a 7.5 MMT global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the largest surplus in 8 years.  On May 22, the USDA, in its biannual report, projected that global 2025/26 sugar production would increase by +4.7% y/y to a record 189.318 million metric tons (MMT), with global sugar ending stocks at 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% year-over-year.

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