Vladimir Putin’s total power has led to strategic mistakes while Russia’s “exhausted” forces are losing ground in Ukraine, the head of Britain's GCHQ is to say.
Sir Jeremy Fleming is set to give a speech on Tuesday setting out how the Kremlin's troops are running out of supplies and failing to defeat the “courageous” Ukrainian effort.
“Far from the inevitable Russian military victory that their propaganda machine spouted, it’s clear that Ukraine’s courageous action on the battlefield and in cyberspace is turning the tide,” the intelligence agency chief will say.
"We know - and Russian commanders on the ground know - that their supplies and munitions are running out.”
GCHQ believes that Ukraine is turning the tide, despite the missile strike on capital Kyiv that killed at least a dozen on Monday. Mr Putin said in a speech that the shelling was the Kremlin’s response to the bombing of a bridge that connected occupied Crimea to Russia.
Sir Jeremy will also use his rare public address to say how Mr Putin’s omnipotence is leading him to make “flawed” decisions in “a high-stakes strategy that is leading to strategic errors in judgement”.
The intelligence agency thinks Russians are beginning to wake up to the truth of the situation beyond what state propaganda has portrayed.
Sir Jeremy will add: "They're seeing just how badly Putin has misjudged the situation.
“They're fleeing the draft, realising they can no longer travel. They know their access to modern technologies and external influences will be drastically restricted."
The talk will also set out the threat of China.
Sir Jeremy will add: “Many believe that China is building a powerful anti-satellite capability, with a doctrine of denying other nations access to space in the event of a conflict.
“There are fears the technology could be used to track individuals.”
