Two South West cities could be among the fastest growing in terms of job creation when the UK emerges from the current recession, according to a new report.
Bristol and Exeter have been predicted to be among the top 10 largest city economies for employment growth in the second half of 2023 by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr).
According to Cebr’s research for legal and financial services firm Irwin Mitchell, the Devon city ranks joint-fourth alongside Liverpool, with year-on-year employment growth of 1.7% estimated for the last quarter of 2023.
Bristol meanwhile is just back in joint 6th spot alongside Edinburgh with 1.6% - which could take the total worker headcount in Bristol to 370,700.
Exeter is also projected to see the fastest growth expected throughout the 50 major UK cities studied in the year to Q4. The report’s authors wrote they expected Exeter’s economy to be “resilient” to the cost-of-living crisis, with a rise of 1.3% gross value added (GVA) to £5.8bn forecast.
The report highlighted recent, large infrastructure investments in Exeter and the city prioritising carbon reduction to attract further funds, with a recent net zero plan published by local authorities and organisation in the city identifying projects which could require £200m in investment.
Bristol’s economy is expected to see annual growth of 0.7% in Q4 2023 with GVA rising to £16.7bn.
Josie Dent, managing economist at Cebr, said: ”2023 will be a difficult year for consumers and businesses in the South West, with the cost-of-living crisis expected to lead to falling economic activity. However, Cebr forecasts that economic growth will resume in the second half of 2023, with most cities expected to see an annual expansion in GVA by Q4 2023.”
Charlotte Rees-John, partner and head of Irwin Mitchell’s consumer sector, added: “Considering longer-term aspirations, such as the transition to carbon net zero, is something all businesses, irrespective of the sector they are in and the pressures that they are facing, need to do.
“ESG is fast becoming a priority for the majority, particularly at a time when there is huge pressure and scrutiny from consumers and investors who are increasingly making their decisions based on ethical as well as financial factors.”
Cambridge was predicted to see the biggest rise in employment growth of 2.5% in Q4 of 2023, ahead of Stoke-on-Trent on 2.1% and Inner London on 2%.
Ms Rees-John said: “Last year presented numerous challenges and the downward pressure on spending activity, which continues to be concentrated in the consumer sector, looks set to continue throughout the first half of 2023.
“The consumer sector has however been one of the most resilient, agile and innovative sectors in recent times and those businesses that succeed during 2023 will be in a very strong position to take advantage of a more stable economic environment in 2024.”
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