The U.S. men’s national team learned its pathway for the 2026 FIFA World Cup on Friday and can largely be pleased with how things sorted themselves out, giving the co-hosts a significant advantage as a seeded, Pot 1 nation.
Led by manager Mauricio Pochettino, the USMNT will open the tournament against Paraguay in Los Angeles on June 12, before facing Australia on June 19 in Seattle. After their quick foray to the Pacific Northwest, they will return to Los Angeles to face one of Türkiye, Romania, Slovakia or Kosovo from the UEFA Playoff Path.
Ranked 14th in the current FIFA rankings, the USMNT are the leading favorites to win Group D, with Australia ranked 29th, Paraguay 39th and 25th-ranked Türkiye the only UEFA Playoff Path D team ranked above 40th.
How does the USMNT stack up? We break it down.
Familiar Opposition for USMNT
If the USMNT had a list of perfect opponents, these might have just been on it. While the start of the Mauricio Pochettino era had some rocky moments, the USMNT ironed out several issues over the fall and will face two of those sides at the World Cup.
Taking on Paraguay in the World Cup opener could be a feisty test for the USMNT, following the November friendly which saw the USMNT prevail 2–1 in Chester, Pennsylvania, with goals from Gio Reyna and Folarin Balogun. As much as that was a positive showing from the Stars and Stripes, it also came with a fight between Alex Freeman and Gustavo Gómez, and those passions could percolate on the stage of a home World Cup opener.
Facing Australia also sees the USMNT go up against a side they beat 2–1 in the fall, having pushed past the Socceroos at Dick’s Sporting Goods Park in Commerce City, Colorado. Although they won’t be playing at altitude or in the snow, they can be familiar with the qualities of Jackson Irvine and Nestory Irankunda and the counter-pressing nature of manager Tony Popovic’s squad.
If Türkiye indeed qualify through the UEFA Playoff, the USMNT will have drawn three opponents that they would play within 13 months of their first match of the World Cup. However, the match against Türkiye in June saw the USMNT lose 2–1, before things began progressing positively under Pochettino.
Group Stage Finale Could Decide Fate
The USMNT doesn’t yet know their opponent for the final match, but if things go as they should, Türkiye will be the team advancing out of the UEFA Playoff.
Given the USMNT’s experience and success against their first two opponents, and Türkiye’s overwhelming skill, the two sides will be favored to enter the last matchday tied at six points apiece, with the group winner having a far greater chance of an extended run in the 48-team tournament.
By the third match, we’ll have a good sense of where these two teams are at, and both will likely have organized themselves into their best lineups and relied on subs. Yet there would still be fear for the USMNT should they need a result, facing the talents of Arda Güler, Kenan Yıldız, Can Uzun, Hakan Çalhanoğlu, Barış Alper Yılmaz and Kerem Aktürkoğlu.
If the USMNT wins the group, they will have days off and remain in California to play a Round of 32 match in Santa Clara, California, with the potential to stay on the West Coast for a Round of 16 match in Seattle and a quarterfinal in Los Angeles.
Should they finish second, there would be much more travel and other climates to adapt to, with that pathway seeing Round of 32 in Dallas, Round of 16 in Atlanta and a quarterfinal in Kansas City, Missouri.
Hype Builds Around USMNT
There are plenty of soccer factors the USMNT can be happy about in its relatively favorable World Cup schedule, but the biggest takeaway from Friday’s festivities may have been the hype: The U.S. is hosting the World Cup, and it’s starting to feel more tangible.
“Now the excitement grows. It makes it feel more real,” midfielder and Red Bull New York product Tyler Adams told reporters. “But for this group, the anticipation was obviously a long time coming, to play on home soil.”
Pochettino’s tenure may have been riddled with team selection issues, but it seems like the soccer has finally turned for the better with the USMNT. That’s an absolutely critical step, with the opportunity to hand the USMNT a leading sense of national pride through an extended run in the summer.
“We all want to win the World Cup. You don’t play a tournament just to be there,” added defender Tim Ream. “Yeah, we want to win. I think people can laugh at it and say whatever they want. But it’s exciting. We’re all excited. It’s a World Cup.”
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Excitement Starts to Build: Three Takeaways As USMNT Learn 2026 World Cup Pathway.
