Last week, news broke that Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans had set a hard deadline with the organization regarding his future status. The recently turned 30-year-old wide receiver has had nine consecutive 1000-yard seasons with Tampa in addition to four Pro Bowl appearances and contributing to the 2021 Super Bowl team. However, the organization has been reluctant to extend the aging wideout in their post-Tom Brady era while they face one of the worst financial situations in the league.
Unsurprisingly, Evans feels quite differently. He’s set a deadline of September 9th for Tampa Bay to arrive at a contract extension or that his camp will shift their attention to his next team. Evans’ contract is set to expire at the end of the 2023 season and the Buccaneers would find it quite expensive to exercise the franchise tag, meaning that September 9th could ultimately signal the end of his time with the organization after this year.
Buy Texans TicketsFull statement by Mike Evans agent setting a deadline of Sept 8 to reach a new deal with Bucs. pic.twitter.com/tG8mHK5pfc
— Rick Stroud (@NFLSTROUD) September 1, 2023
Why does it matter? In a rebuilding year for Tampa Bay, featuring Baker Mayfield starting at quarterback, many are left to wonder if Evans makes sense as a logical trade candidate before the Buccaneers lose his services for nothing in the spring.
Could the Houston Texans make sense as a candidate to bring Evans back to the state where he dominated as a college football player at Texas A&M? There are multiple angles worth looking at.
Why the Houston Texans might be interested
There’s a reason that Houston is brought up in nearly every wide receiver conversation. Their current room simply does not spark confidence for a modern NFL passing game.
Nico Collins is the most physically talented of the bunch and slots in as Houston’s No. 1 perimeter receiver going into Week 1 at Baltimore. However, he’s struggled to stay healthy and never played a full season through his first two years in the league. Robert Woods was signed prior to free agency and the team is hopeful that he can return to form in a familiar scheme, but he showed serious signs of age in his last stint with the Tennessee Titans.
Meanwhile, rookies John Metchie, Tank Dell, and Xavier Hutchinson come with zero league experience and their own set of question marks. Veteran Noah Brown is well-established as a tertiary passing option rather than an elite receiver.
Put simply, Mike Evans makes the Houston Texans a much better offensive team.
Nick Caserio should be on the phone today.
They've got the money, they've got the need… Mike Evans is the type of receiver you hope becomes available for a young quarterback.
Imagine C.J. Stroud's deep ball placement with Evans' skillset #WeAreTexans https://t.co/HGhQUO2hW6
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) September 1, 2023
He would bring immediate credibility and an elite skillset to the group while offering rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud a go-to target on difficult passing downs. His skillset on the perimeter overlaps very well with what Nico Collins is expected to do and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik would simply drop a Pro Bowl-caliber talent into that role instead.
It’s well documented how much young passers benefit from the addition of elite receivers and optimism would have to revolve around the idea that Evans would accelerate the learning curve for Stroud and add a dynamic, vertical element to the offense that they currently lack.
Amongst the receiver group, an argument could be made that Evans brings a needed championship-caliber presence and may be a useful mentor to younger players such as Collins, Hutchinson, and Metchie. He’d rejoin former Tampa Bay teammate Shaq Mason in the locker room as two players who have previously reached the mountain top and understand what a high-level offense looks like.
The addition of Evans would take the pressure off the team to select a stud receiver in the upcoming draft and open up additional avenues for how Houston can use Cleveland’s first-round pick in 2024. They may ultimately select a receiver regardless; however, that player would feel less pressure to produce, and the team would suddenly feature a deep and talented depth chart at the position.
Keon Coleman is yet another draft eligible wide receiver for Houston fans to admire this season.
Big play to kickoff his first game with Florida State pic.twitter.com/suYeCF4E60
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) September 4, 2023
Finally, Houston has the projected future cap space to pay Evans.
General manager Nick Caserio and the club are projected with over $80 million in cap space to work with for next season. It’s very reasonable to ask if Evans is more talented than the players that will be available for the club in free agency and the answer would likely be yes. Unfortunately, there are more difficult components of the financial discussion to be had.
Why the Houston Texans may stay away
For every reason Houston would be thrilled to add a player like Mike Evans in 2023, there are reasons for hesitation. The first of which would be the development of their younger wide receivers. Are the Texans ready to watch their younger receivers feature primarily on the bench? That would be the most likely outcome.
Evans would consume most of, if not all, the projected role for Collins and relegate the third-year player to the bench for his projected breakout season. Down the line, Evans’ presence would make it even more difficult for players such as Xavier Hutchinson and John Metchie to see the field in any meaningful capacity.
The only drawback to a Mike Evans, or any receiver, pursuit for the 2023 season:
Collins, Metchie, Hutchinson's roles would all be reduced. Can't learn what you have in those players.
At this point, may make sense to just wait. Throw momentum in 2024 with more info #WeAreTexans
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) September 1, 2023
It may generate a meaningful first-year bump for C.J. Stroud as a rookie, but the move would harm Houston’s ability to see their draft picks create any positive momentum for themselves and for the team’s future.
Financially, the situation is far more difficult than simply having the cap space in 2024. Houston would need to absorb all of Mike Evans’ current cap hit and they currently only have around $4 million to do so. That could require extensions for current players they’re not ready to give out yet, using void years to harm the future salary cap, or flat-out releasing players that were in their plans for 2023. Some real financial gymnastics would be needed.
What does compensation look like?
Tampa Bay has seen wide receivers such as Davante Adams and A.J. Brown go for an enormous amount of draft capital in recent trades. They’ve also seen veterans like Amari Cooper traded for far less than their true value. This would signal a clear situation where Tampa Bay is not in a financial position to demand true value for Evans’ contract.
Would they be willing to trade their long-time franchise star for a late Day 2 selection or even worse? Would Houston be willing to pay a Round 2 pick or more if the team wanted to be stubborn on their price? The logistics of how to value a dominant but aging receiver, in a messy contract situation, are more complicated than some of the recent wide receiver trades around the league.
What should Houston Texans fans expect?
It’s unclear whether or not head coach DeMeco Ryans and the team would truly be interested in adding Evans to accelerate their 2023 team. It’s much less clear what kind of situation Evans would want to enter if he were to demand a trade away from Tampa Bay.
Caserio has been aggressive in acquiring players he believes fit the team and their window. In fact, he dealt with Tampa Bay just a few months ago to acquire Mason when trying to solidify his offensive line. It’s not outrageous to think the team could move if they so decided.
Despite that, fans should be prepared for Houston to enter the season with their current cast of young receivers in a developmental year. They weren’t interested in DeAndre Hopkins without a trade price tag and it’s hard to imagine them dealing significant financial and draft compensation to make a change this close to the start of the season.
