It was a bitterly fought election. A campaign full of rhetoric from all sides, a random pre-poll move to divide the Lingayat vote bank which seems to have failed miserably, a carpet-bombing advertisement spree, a premature celebration which has now turned into a dank meme, a dark horse regional party doing much better than predicted and then, finally, a surprise result!
But if you think the pre-election period was bonkers, what has happened since the election results came out in the past two days is just plain mind-boggling.
And the Winner is…?
We still don’t know the true answer to this question.
The seat tally was this:
Source: http://eciresults.nic.in/
It was a true roller-coaster ride where, as the results were pouring in, the BJP looked set to cross the half-way mark of 113. But when the leads started turning into seat wins, the vote share of the Indian National Congress and Janata Dal (Secular) dramatically shot up. Now it turns out that the INC has more vote share than the BJP, but it didn’t translate into seats.
Why? Because of our First Past the Post System, which essentially means it is ultimately seats, not votes, that count.
By the end of the counting, BJP ended up 9 seats short of the majority but the combined strength of the INC, JD(S) and BSP touched 116. Congress quickly reached out to JD(S) and sealed a post-poll alliance with them.
Till that point, everyone was underestimating the regional outfit. A lot of people were wondering, “JD(S) will be the kingmaker or not?”. Turns out, HD Kumaraswamy was offered the CM post and he zoomed from kingmaker to a potential king in a matter of hours!
Oh, politics! How flexible! How full of twists and turns! Abbas-Mastan should be taking notes!
Everyone other than the BJP was like…
But then, the BJP was not worried. Of course, they weren’t worried. Because when asked what will they do now, Ram Madhav said, “Don’t worry, we have Amit Shah LOLOLOL”.
On live TV!
#KarnatakaVerdict:
Navika: BJP slightly short of majority, now what…❓
Ram Madhav: (Laughs) …Don’t Worry, We have Amit Shah… (Laughs)
Navika: (Laughs)
This was when BJP was 109, finally ended even lower at 104. Everyone can Judge about BJP’s Ways… #BJPMurdersDemocracy pic.twitter.com/WzPcWRwEJB— Jairaj P (@jairajp) May 16, 2018
Navika Kumar being so jubilant makes you laugh too until your laugh turns into awkward silence after realisation strikes.
Poaching commences in 3… 2… 1…
We have collectively gotten so used to BJP getting themselves out of awkward situations such as this one that it has become rather hilarious. Because what else can we do except laugh, eh?
News started pouring in of the BJP being in touch with ‘rebel’ JD(S) MLAs, who were being offered a buttload of money. Kumaraswamy himself made this claim.
JD(S) MLAs are being offered Rs 100 crore each. Where is this black money coming from? They are supposedly the servers of poor people and they are offering money today. Where are the income tax officials?: HD Kumaraswamy, JD(S) #KarnatakaElections2018 pic.twitter.com/d157SS30E5
— ANI (@ANI) May 16, 2018
Then, basically, it just devolved from there. Others were like, “You will poach my MLAs? Wait wait. I will poach YOUR MLAs! HA! Take that!”
Forget ‘Operation Kamal’ being successful, there are people who are ready to leave BJP&come with us. If you try to poach one from ours, we’ll do the same & take double from you. I’m also telling the Governor to not take any decision which encourages horse-trading: HD Kumaraswamy pic.twitter.com/Wo3mWygNWz
— ANI (@ANI) May 16, 2018
As #Karnataka‘s political scenario gets intensive, the state’s #Congress Party leaders have alleged that the #BJP is trying to “poach” their MLAs in an attempt to establish majority to form the government.
Read @ANI story | https://t.co/UMovfBVmEV pic.twitter.com/M03sDDfQWk
— ANI Digital (@ani_digital) May 16, 2018
Senior Congress Minister of Karnataka in close touch with 4 Bjp Mla,s. Bjp Mla,s are trying to balance both sides.
Sources— Aadesh Rawal (@AadeshRawal) May 15, 2018
Courtesy: https://twitter.com/RoflGandhi_/status/996690182396153857
Total neki aur poach poach situation. Heh.
But, then, the focus soon shifted to the one person who will give the definitive answer to this whole confusing fiasco: Governor of Karnataka Vajubhai Vala. The situation became so intense that even the saddest person in Bollywood today, Uday Chopra, chipped in.
I just googled the governor of Karnataka https://t.co/5vUFe5Tttq BJP guy and RSS hmmm I guess we all know what’s gonna happen
— Uday Chopra (@udaychopra) May 15, 2018
Vajubhai Vala’s Valhalla
Now the big question was who the Governor would invite to form the Government: BJP, which is the single largest party with 104 seats, or the INC & JD(S)+ alliance, which has 4 seats more than the majority mark.
There is a lot of confusing lawyer-talk happening on this issue, so let’s try to get to the bottom of it.
Folks are citing the SR Bommai vs Union of India case which, commentators claim, says that the single-largest party should be invited to form the Government first. Turns out, the judgment lays down no legal position on the current situation.
It’s also a funny situation because this argument, which is being used by the BJP to stake claim in Karnataka, was used by the Congress last year when Goa Assembly faced a similar electoral conundrum.
9 Judges S.R.Bommai’s case clearly decided that ‘single largest party has to be called to form the Govt’. Why is Modiji trampling democracy? pic.twitter.com/Vd5LDIAuNW
— Randeep Singh Surjewala (@rssurjewala) March 14, 2017
There are two other reports which are being highlighted, namely the Sarkaria Commission Report of 1988 and the Punchhi Commission Report of 2010 that lay down the conventions of how a Governor should appoint governments. But then, at the end of the day, they are recommendatory in nature.
The gist of the whole thing is: The Governor can do almost anything he/she wants. Almost.
LEGAL LOOPHOLE ALERT!
The Constitution of India does not lay down how the governor should appoint the government and who he/she should invite to do it. There is quite literally no answer to the question, “Who should the Governor invite first” because it has always been a vague legal territory which hasn’t been clarified till date.
The Constitution, however, under Article 361, does grant immunity to the Governor from the judiciary and he/she cannot be summoned by courts. There is an unspoken understanding and assumption that the Governor will not do anything against the spirit of the Constitution, that he/she will not make arbitrary moves which are shady in nature. So to speak.
But then, again, it’s all unspoken and an assumption. So, probably, going by that logic, Governor Vala just went right ahead and invited the BJP to form Government and gave them 15 days to prove majority. Let the hunger games commence!
Karnataka Governor’s letter inviting BJP’s BS Yeddyurappa to form government. #KarnatakaElectionResults2018 pic.twitter.com/EafBULC7nr
— ANI (@ANI) May 16, 2018
But INC & JD(S) were obviously pissed off and, strangely enough, Arun Jaitley had said the exact opposite things in the past…
In a hung assembly, if majority of the elected MLAs form a coalition, the Governor would be constitutionally right (1/2)
— Arun Jaitley (@arunjaitley) March 13, 2017
in inviting the leader of the majority coalition to form the government and prove their majority within a short period. (2/2)
— Arun Jaitley (@arunjaitley) March 13, 2017
So Congress knocked the doors of the Supreme Court pleading them to stall BS Yeddyurappa’s swearing-in on March 17, 2018, at 9.00 am.
A dramatic late-night hearing
Last night at 1.45 am, the Supreme Court assembled a three-judge bench to decide what to do about the Karnataka situation. Twitter lit up!
Breaking: SC to hear @INCIndia -JD(S) plea against Karnataka governor’s decision to invite @BSYBJP in Court 2 at 1:45 am.
— Live Law (@LiveLawIndia) May 16, 2018
Some passionate arguments were made by Abhishek Manu Singhvi, who was representing the Congress…
BJP has just 104 MLAs in support and the Governor has invited BJP leader BS Yeddyurappa to form the government. It is completely unconstitutional: Abhishek Manu Singhvi in hearing of plea filed by Cong & JD(S) challenging Karnataka Governor’s decision #KarnatakaElections
— ANI (@ANI) May 16, 2018
Singhvi: I may not form the government, I may fail to show numbers but not calling me to form government is incorrect. And Governor cannot call someone else even when I have the numbers.
— Apurva Vishwanath (@apurva_hv) May 16, 2018
A party without the majority is given 15 days to prove majority, your lordships have settled, it’s the biggest license for poaching of MLAs: AM Singhvi
— Arvind Gunasekar (@arvindgunasekar) May 16, 2018
Meghalaya, Manipur, Goa @INCIndia was single largest party but BJP and others were called.
In Delhi, @BJP4India was highest but @INCIndia and others were called.
Jharkhand also BJP was single largest but was not called. @BSYBJP
— Bar & Bench (@barandbench) May 16, 2018
Some passionate arguments were made by KK Venugopal, who was representing the Centre. Mukul Rohatgi, who was representing a few BJP MLAs, also uh…chipped in…
AG Venugopal: Everything here is in the realm of speculation. Whole thing is a grey area
Rohatgi: What is the urgency of the matter to hear it at midnight? Will heavens fall if a person is sworn in in the morning
J. Sikri: First tell us how you claim a majority in numbers
— Krishnadas Rajagopal (@kdrajagopal) May 16, 2018
Justice Bobde: Can floor test be held after swearing in just the MLA’s (without swearing in the CM)
Attorney General KK Venugopal: That would be highly unorthodox.— Apurva Vishwanath (@apurva_hv) May 16, 2018
AG: Anti-defection law would come into force only after the MLAs are sworn in.
Justice Sikri and Bhushan: does that mean all the suitcase exchange is possible before they are sworn in? That’s impermissible.— Apurva Vishwanath (@apurva_hv) May 16, 2018
Justice Sikri: We cannot look away because the figures don’t say you have majority.
Attorney General: But your lordships don’t know the full figures. You only know what’s announced yesterday but not entirely.— Apurva Vishwanath (@apurva_hv) May 16, 2018
“This is an attempt to stultify democratic process”, Mukul Rohatgi.
— Bar & Bench (@barandbench) May 16, 2018
Rohatgi was talking about the Congress’ attempt to stultify democratic process, in case you were wondering otherwise. Just saying.
And finally, the verdict came at 5.30 am. No stay. BS Yeddyurappa to be sworn in.
Verdict again: Supreme Court declines to stay BS Yeddyurappa’s swearing in.
SC asks for the letter BSY wrote to the Governor to be produced before Friday 10:30am when he will pass final orders @ThePrintIndia
— Apurva Vishwanath (@apurva_hv) May 17, 2018
Now the BJP has to produce the letter which Yeddyurappa sent to the Governor, explaining his side about how he intends to ensure a majority in the Assembly. The floor test remains delayed so we still don’t know who the winner is.
If BJP manages to ‘convince’ a few rebel MLAs (from INC or JDS) to switch sides within 15 days, they will end up forming the Government. If they don’t manage to do so, then the Congress & JD(S)+ will form the Government.
Oh, and since Yeddyurappa has already been sworn in as Chief Minister as of this morning, he’s already started taking arbitrary decisions. Without an Assembly in place. Or a cabinet.
@BSYBJP chairs his first Cabinet meeting. He is the only minister in his council of ministers. Waives off Rs.1 lakh loan of farmers.
— DP SATISH (@dp_satish) May 17, 2018
Just some confident dictatorial behaviour to mark the premature victory, I guess.
A few final thoughts on the situation
This whole saga, although mind-boggling, is also quite worrying. But it’s not so because the BJP is doing this or the Congress did it in the past or this has happened in other states in the past. It’s also not about that time in 1996 when HD Devegowda actually dismissed Vala’s government in Gujarat and this might be his own bizarre way to seek revenge two decades later.
It’s not about all that because politics is vindictive, petty and quite flexible in nature. You add a sprinkling of lawyer-speak on top and there will always be arguments one way or another, depending on the situation at play. This is more about the vague nature of what the Governor is supposed to do and how nobody has really fixed that loophole till now.
The vagueness in law is being exploited by the ruling party to twist and turn the situation in their favour, while the Supreme Court also seems to be quite helpless in the situation since they can’t question the Governor.
Another worrying factor here is that we, the people, who were a few years ago screaming about corruption have somehow normalised MLA poaching and horse-trading as an… uh… art form? We should never forget that no political party or person stays in power forever. When the tables turn, the current events will be used as a precedent to justify even worse things in the future.
The only way out of this rut is systemic reform and clear-cut laws about how the Governor should appoint his/her government in a state, how floor tests need to be held and chief ministers sworn in. All in a logical order. If we don’t do that, whenever the next batch of states go for elections, we will see the same drama unfold while the voters watch on helplessly.
Or, perhaps, the best way to deal with this situation is to find the funny bits and laugh away our worries. Because what else can we do, eh?
Cue…the best tweet from last night’s Supreme Court drama!
Dude…your crew are perhaps in the wrong coutroom. Go to Court No.6. You will find many other news teams there. https://t.co/5w0ZfORfR8
— Prasanna S (@prasanna_s) May 16, 2018
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