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Sarah Mills, Professor of Human Geography, Loughborough University

Everything can be a bet now – the rise and risks of prediction markets

Polymarket Kalshi PredictIt United States
The final result in November's New York City mayoral election was more like 51% for Zohran Mamdani and 41% for Andrew Cuomo. rblfmr/Shutterstock

Yes or no? It’s a simple question that now drives more than US$13 billion (£9.7 billion) a month on prediction markets – companies like Polymarket, PredictIt and Kalshi.

These firms run digital platforms that use blockchain technology to let anonymous users gamble on uncertainty and place “predictions” rather than bets. Users can buy a yes or no “event contract” on anything from strikes on Iran to the most popular show on Netflix and the return of Jesus.

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