Paris-Nice is traditionally seen as the first important stage race of the season. In the past, everything prior to this event would have been accused of being a training race or a gentle introduction to the rhythm of competition. But nowadays there’s no such thing. A rider can’t turn up to any race expecting a controlled first half with a bit of racing towards the end, mainly involving the poor souls who been training extensively through the bleak winter for the Classics.
A ten-day training camp and a few too many kilos might have been acceptable back then, but that largesse doesn’t cut it nowadays and everyone has to turn up ready for action. If you’re not, then you won’t even be considered for the big test that is Paris-Nice. So when any rider makes the selection we can assume that their squad thinks they have something to offer on the journey down to the Cote d’Azur.
There are always the standout competitors, though, and this 82nd edition of Paris-Nice sees two from the 'Big Four' present and they will be the focal point for most of the attention given it's the first time any of that quartet face off before the Tour de France. Last year we had Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard fighting it out and this year we have the other two amigos, Remco Evenepoel and Primož Roglič, to entertain us.
It should be an interesting contest in terms of confidence building for the Slovenian who, let’s remember, has stepped outside of the dominant Visma structure, and for Remco, who hopes to be on the podium in Nice not only here but in July, when another, altogether bigger tour of the French countryside reaches its conclusion.
Evenepoel arrives in rather fine form. In six days of racing this year he’s been on the podium five times, raised his arms aloft in victory celebration for half of them and he took the overall win at the Volta ao Algarve for the third time. A none-too-shabby set of statistics, to say the least.
Roglič, on the other hand, begins his season and makes his first appearance for his new team Bora-Hansgrohe when he appears on the start line in Les Mureaux on Sunday. As a previous winner of Pais-Nice back in 2022, he knows how to ride this race successfully, but even he’ll be aware that the task this time around will require his best form and the full support of that new team.
Luckily, Bora agree that the signing of a Tour de France challenger merits proper back-up, so he has a strong squad that includes Aleksandr Vlasov as his wingman for the hardest climbing stages.
Over at Soudal-Quickstep, Ilan Van Wilder and Louis Vervaeke are on climbing lieutenant duties for Patrick Lefevere’s protégé, a role which carries a certain amount of stress in itself following the team principal’s recent outbursts concerning form, results and external interests. Thankfully both young Belgians have been up to the task so far this season.
Of course, it’s not just going to be a two-horse race as there are other teams and riders with genuine ambitions. David Gaudu was runner up last year, João Almeida and, especially, Brandon McNulty will be involved at some point for UAE Team Emirates, and then there’s the Ineos duo of Carlos Rodriguez and Egan Bernal, the latter replacing Luke Rowe at the last minute. That partnership will be something to watch as the internal politics over who is team leader needs to be established.
Rodriguez re-signed with the team with the understanding that he was number one, however Bernal’s return to something near his best level might well change the hierarchy. It’s a few years and accidents on from the Colombian’s 2019 victories in Paris-Nice, Tour de Suisse and the Tour de France, but there are indications that his talent is re-emerging. Dual leadership has never really worked out for the British-registered collective, but maybe under new management they can make it happen.
Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek), Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious) and Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) also catch the eye as possible outsiders, but it’s hard to see past Evenepoel and Roglič as the out and out favourites.
The decisive points
Looking at the route, it’s not too brutal to start with, though the two stages near Paris require the usual amount of concentration for the GC hopefuls, with street furniture, changes of direction, and the possibility of echelons if it’s windy. I’d still mark them down as sprint stages, which, given the fast men present, ought to be spectacular. For once, Visma-Lease A Bike won’t be involved in the overall battle, but Olav Kooij won’t have it easy with the stellar line-up of other sprinters present.
In no particular order, there are the Arnauds, De Lie and Démare, Arvid de Kleijn, Dylan Groenewegen, Mads Pedersen, Kaden Groves, Gerben Thijssen, Marijn Van den Berg, Sam Bennett, Fabio Jakobsen, Michael Matthews, Pascal Ackerman and Bryan Coquard, who will be hoping that someone from Cofidis is finally able to win a race. They’re the only World Tour team without a victory this year, so no pressure to get in the break whenever possible then…
The first sort-out of the GC will be the team trial on day 3, when the statisticians will have to work out where to use up riders to maximise their squads’ chances. On paper, it looks to be advantage Bora-Hansgrohe over the Soudal-Quickstep team of Evenepoel, which has slightly smaller riders, but it ought to be close between them.
That doesn’t mean one of them will win, because when you look through the start list there’s plenty of competition. I suspect it’ll be the usual hierarchy for the discipline with Visma, UAE, Ineos, Jayco and Lidl-Trek all reasonably close to each other.
Once that’s out of the way and the peloton heads down towards the more mountainous stages, the chances for the attackers become clearer and the GC fight can be whittled down to those in form and those just surviving. Stage 4 finishing on top of Mont Brouilly will be an indicator and probably will be the trickiest day to control if anything dramatic happens. The following two days are ones where the GC might not be won but could easily be lost by a moment of inattention or bad luck.
As ever, the final weekend will be where the race really plays out. The Saturday stage, with over 4.000m of elevation and a summit finish at Auron, is the big climbing test, but the final stage around Nice ought to be its usual, explosive self. It could spring a surprise.
