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Fortune
Fortune
Dave Smith

Even if you can’t trust the data, these 13 warning signs will tell you the economy is in trouble

Donald Trump holds up a chart alleging BLS data has been inaccurate (Credit: Win McNamee—Getty Images)

For decades, statistics that came directly from the U.S. government, especially from agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), have long been the gold standard for measuring the health of the American economy. But this trust has been shaken by recent events, including substantial downward revisions to jobs data, bruising political accusations, and the unceremonious dismissal of Erika McEntarfer, the BLS’s top official, at the beginning of the month. The resulting uncertainty has left many Americans asking: If official government data can’t be trusted, how can you know if the economy is struggling?

For decades, regular reports from the BLS and other agencies have offered a detailed portrait of economic activity, from employment levels to inflation to productivity. Businesses, investors, and policymakers depend on these numbers to make informed decisions. But collecting this data is an imperfect, daunting task, particularly in an economy as large and fast-moving as that of the U.S.

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