In the Commons this afternoon, the Prime Minister needs a symphonic mixture of apology, distraction and defiance to slough off his troubles. The Big Sorry however comes with many tangled strings attached. Labour and the Lib Dems are seeking to extract a parliamentary vote on the matter — adding another spotlight to Johnson’s woes and nudging the rattled Conservative benches towards a no-confidence vote. Every Partygate fine administered to Team Boris and the great party-goer himself adds to the impression of slipshod management and cynicism. Add to that a hike in cost of living, causing palpitations in cash-strapped households. No wonder many Tories view the May elections, as one MP from the 2016 intake puts it to me, as an impending “Slaughterhouse-Five”.
Voting across London and the country on May 5 does indeed feel like impending mortal combat for the political parties. Conservative MPs fear a drubbing so thorough that the prospect of recovery under Boris Johnson’s leadership becomes too shaky to bank on.
Any government suffering long-stay wear and tear, the backwash of Covid, economic stress and a spate of appallingly-behaved MPs coming a cropper over their personal conduct and misjudgments would be anxious about the mid-term health check.
But the Tories face the prospect of shifting abruptly from default party of power to a leadership crisis from which the exit route looks daunting or, at best, convoluted. The PM’s personal ratings have plummeted to his lowest, with more than 70 per cent of those polled by The Times voicing negative views. Even for a man whose best performances have been when under pressure, this looks a tough gig. Today he expressed a modicum of regret about the mess of illicit Downing Street gatherings, suggesting that being under-informed rather than reckless was the reason — adding a plea for “perspective”. Johnson also played the Zelensky defence, citing the Ukrainian war leader’s warm words about the PM and their frequent meetings.
Reflected glory is never something to turn down, even if the real source of gratitude from the Ukrainian leader is the UK’s military intelligence and strategic support. That said, Volodymyr Zelensky is genuinely warm about Johnson, not least because he recognises another natural performer. An upbeat visit from Johnson surely beats the patchy support Zelensky has gained elsewhere in Europe.
So Johnson had demanded that we focus on the “big picture” — of a dangerous world, the price of standing up for liberty and the defence of the underdog. It’s an oddity to go into bread-and-butter local elections wielding international security policy as your best defence, but the global stage does currently cast a more favourable light on Britain’s leader.
In London, with 32 boroughs and borough mayoralties up for grabs next month, elections will feel more like a referendum on Keir Starmer’s advances than any hope of a Tory rally from the doldrums. Conservatives can, of course, still live pretty confidently with an electoral map divided between urban Southern seats and areas which remain fretful about a Labour government or just confused about what Starmer stands for beyond “I told you so”.
It’s also a reminder that old divides are likely to resume as the fight hots up. The Government’s segue to a policy of processing asylum claims in Rwanda is over-complex and, in likely outcomes, hardly worth the trouble (to say nothing of the distaste one might feel at having refugees processed in a country run by a cruel autocrat). But in terms of a target audience, it is a squarely fixed line on immigration and asylum; areas in which the Opposition has so often squirmed when trying to satisfy both its progressive-liberal and more traditional wings.
Starting today, the Great Deflector will seek to change the conversation to the cost of living squeeze, where he can pressure his Chancellor for faster remedies (and imply that Rishi Sunak has been slow). He can also bask in the reflected glory of assisting a democracy under assault — even though support for its refugees has been far less dazzling.
Since there is nothing to be said about Partygate which will not entangle Johnson in even more half truths, he will say as little as possible. Yet it is another matter to sustain an election campaign with a blank omerta on a topic on which there is still much vocal anger. For a noisy politician, a vow of silence may turn out to be the hardest ruse of all.
