Dozens of European leaders will be seeking to chart a more common future during a one-day summit hosted by Hungarian leader Viktor Orban in Budapest on Thursday.
The transatlantic relationship was always set to change after the 5 November US presidential election, but the question remains whether that change will be seismic under Donald Trump.
For summit host and ardent Trump supporter, Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban, all things were already crystal clear even as votes were still being counted. “Good morning, Hungary! On the way to a beautiful victory. It’s already in the bag!”
Other European leaders have been far more reticent.
The impact of the US results could be felt for years to come, on issues including the war in Ukraine, the European Union's trade relations with the rest of the world, migration, the Middle East wars and climate change.
“All this is putting peace, stability and prosperity at risk in our region,” said the invitation letter to the leaders of the European Political Community, which unites almost 50 nations in Europe and its near neighbours, bar Russia and Belarus.
'Evaporation' of US support for Ukraine
Among the leaders likely to attend on Thursday is Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who is expected to make another plea for more aid as his country fends off Moscow's invasion.
The timing is laden with significance as Trump has vowed to end the war “within 24 hours” of being elected – something leaders in Kyiv interpret as an impending evaporation of US support with a Trump win.
Not so long ago, such a meeting – which is also expected to include leaders from non-EU countries like Turkey, Serbia and the United Kingdom – would end with praise for European unity and a common political direction.
Yet with Orban as the host of the summit, friction is as good as assured.
Orban, who has openly thrown his weight behind Trump and argued that the former president is a “man of peace,” predicted a Trump victory and suggested that civil and criminal cases against him were the result of a politically motivated US Justice Department – a common Trump refrain.
Future of Europe
Having played the obstructionist for years within the 27-nation EU, Orban now holds the bloc's rotating presidency, giving him a more prominent platform and making him the host of Thursday's EPC summit, as well as another gathering of EU leaders on Friday.
The presidency under Orban caused turmoil from day one, when he declared “Make Europe Great Again” the motto of his six months in charge.
It was a strikingly clear reference to his affection for Trump, which he followed up with unannounced visits to Moscow and Beijing, angering EU leaders who said he wasn't acting on their behalf.
In response to Orban's self-styled “peace mission” many EU countries began boycotting presidency meetings in Budapest, or sending only lower-level bureaucrats rather than ministers.
However, no boycotts are expected for this week's summits.
While Orban has cast the result of US elections as determinative of Europe's future – he's even delayed passing Hungary's 2025 national budget until after a new president is elected – not all EU leaders are comfortable with the bloc's fate being so tightly bound up with the movements of American politics.
Donald Tusk, the centre-right prime minister of Poland, said that Europe must forge a more independent path that is less sensitive to changes across the Atlantic.
"Some claim that the future of Europe depends on the American elections, while it depends first and foremost on us, on the condition that Europe finally grows up and believes in its own strength," Tusk said in the days before the summit.
“Whatever the outcome, the era of geopolitical outsourcing is over”.
