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The Guardian - UK
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Lili Bayer in Budapest

European elections: Hungary poll puts Orbán’s Fidesz on 50% with Magyar’s Tisza on 27% – as it happened

Election billboards for Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz read ‘Peace’ and ‘Stop War’ in Budapest.
Election billboards for Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz read ‘Peace’ and ‘Stop War’ in Budapest.
Photograph: Bernadett Szabó/Reuters

Summary of the day

  • People in Ireland and the Czech Republic are voting in the European elections, a day after voters in the Netherlands went to the polls.

  • Broadcaster NOS has published an exit poll showing that in the Netherlands the Green-Left-Labour alliance took a narrow lead over the far-right Freedom party (PVV).

  • Reacting to the exit polling, the Greens’ Bas Eickhout said “the narrative of the rise of the far-right has been beaten in the Netherlands.”

  • Far-right politician Geert Wilders welcomed the exit poll results “The PVV had the best result and biggest gains ever in the EU elections!” he wrote.

  • In Ireland, a record number of far-right candidates are on the ballot for local councils and the European parliament but it is unclear if many will get elected and join an expected far-right surge across Europe.

  • “Keeping the crazies out, that’s the main thing,” said Ger, in his 40s, after voting in Dun Laoghaire in south Dublin. “I’m quite concerned that one of them will get elected to Europe.”

  • Helen, 69, outside another south Dublin polling station, said she had nothing against foreigners but had voted for parties that would prioritise accommodation for “forgotten” homeless Irish people.

  • Petr Fiala, the conservative Czech prime minister, said his electoral alliance will stop illegal migration to Europe.

  • Meanwhile, the campaign has been heating up across the continent, as more countries prepare to vote.

  • Pollster Median found that among decided Hungarian voters, the ruling Fidesz party is polling at 50%, while Péter Magyar’s Tisza party is at 27%.

  • Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, addressed the French national assembly.

  • The European Commission said that Ukraine and Moldova meet all the criteria to formally start negotiations on EU membership.

We are now closing this blog but you can read all our European coverage here.

Updated

European Commission confirms Ukraine and Moldova meet criteria for EU negotiations

The European Commission said today that Ukraine and Moldova meet all the criteria to formally start negotiations on EU membership, Reuters reported.

“We confirm that on the Commission side we consider that all the steps have been met by the two countries,” a Commission spokesperson said.

“The decision is now in the hands of the member states - it is for them to adopt the negotiating framework,” she said. “Once this step is done it is the prerogative of the EU presidency to convene an intergovernmental conference to formally mark the start of the negotiations,” she added.

To start negotiations, the EU’s member states need to unanimously agree by adopting the so-called negotiating framework.

Hungary has raised doubts about the assessment.

Updated

The European People’s party (EPP) leader, Manfred Weber, made the case that Europe should make do with the resources it has.

His comments come amid an emerging debate over the bloc’s finances, in particular as pressure grows to invest in areas such as defence.

Explainer: the European political families

After Sunday, attention will shift quickly to Europe’s party politics and the race for coveted top EU jobs.

Expect some political shifts: parties new to the European parliament will find homes in political groups.

For example, in Monday’s campaign blog, Henrik Dahl, lead candidate for Denmark’s Liberal Alliance, told us his party plans to join the centre-right European People’s party – because “there is less wokeness in the EPP.”

And some parties that have sat in the parliament for a long time will be looking for new allies as well.

One such party is Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party, which quit the EPP in 2021 when it faced possible suspension or expulsion. Now, it has its eyes on the European Conservatives and Reformists group.

On the liberal side, Renew Europe is expected to decide after the election whether to expel Dutch member VVD due to its decision to enter government with the far-right.

Earlier this week, we heard from a few Renew members who want the group to stay together. “I think that at this very moment of time, we still should find the ways how to keep all of our members,” said Urmas Paet from Estonia’s Reform party.

Here’s a quick explainer of the current groups in the European parliament:

  • The European People’s party: This is the biggest political family, representing the centre-right. It includes heavyweights such as Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Poland’s Civic Platform. It has the most seats in the current parliament and is set to retain its position as the biggest group in the next one as well.

  • The Socialists and Democrats: The Socialists and Democrats are the second-largest group. The group includes parties such as Spain’s Socialist party and Germany’s Social Democratic party.

  • Renew Europe: This grouping brings together centrist and liberal parties, including Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance. It is expected to lose seats in the elections.

  • European Conservatives and Reformists: This is the grouping pundits, journalists and politicians have been chatting about the most over the past weeks. There is an ongoing debate about whether the centre right will open up to more cooperation with at least some of its members. It currently includes parties such as Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy and Poland’s conservative Law and Justice – but also groupings such as Spain’s far-right Vox and French far-right party Reconquête.

  • Identity and Democracy: The ID group consists of a range of far-right parties, including France’s National Rally, Austria’s Freedom party and Belgium’s Vlaams Belang. In May, Alternative for Germany (AfD) was expelled from the group, following a spate of scandals.

  • Greens: The Greens group, with members such as the German Greens, is expected to lose seats in these elections.

  • The Left: This group includes members such as La France Insoumise and Ireland’s Sinn Féin.

Updated

Disinformation latest

Claims that there will be a “three hour information blackout” that will allow the Spanish government to rig the results of the European elections in the country on Sunday are part of the latest wave of disinformation circulating.

Under the law, national results from any of the 27 countries cannot be published until polls in the the last country to vote, Italy, are closed at 11pm on Sunday night.

The European Digital Media Observatory, which is collating fact checking operations through the EU, said conspiracy theorists had jumped on this to spread “false claims” that this is a deliberate blackout to manipulate voter turnout.

EDMO has also detected false claims of imminent election fraud in Germany, exploiting a recent incident in which 2019 ballot papers were mistakenly sent to postal voters in Bavaria.

German news agency DPA reported the municipal council of Bad Reichenhall confirmed it was serious human error but there was no intention to fix the vote.

EDMO says it has previously warned that potential count issues could lead to disinformation campaigns, a trend already detected in previous elections.

Elsewhere, Factcheck Election 24 have picked up on debunked claims that Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president and lead candidate for the centre-right European People’s party, was going to “vaccinate” the EU population against “wrong thinking”, partly down to a mistranslation of a speech in which she likened disinformation to a virus.

We asked Ágnes Vadai, a candidate for Hungary’s opposition Democratic Coalition, what she’s been hearing from voters on the campaign trail.

“Most often is, of course, standard of living,” she said.

“This is a constant issue. The prices are really up. Inflation is high. Wages are little,” she said, adding that services such as education and health care have been “deteriorating.”

“So people are mainly coming up with their own personal stories, demonstrating that in spite of what Orbán is saying, the situation in Hungary is really terrifying.”

The Democratic Coalition is running on a join list with the Hungarian Socialist party and Párbeszéd, a small green party.

The latest opinion poll from Median showed 9% of decided voters support the list, putting it in third place after the ruling Fidesz party and Péter Magyar’s Tisza.

Asked about the decision to run as a joint list, Vadai said “I think it’s kind of an obvious choice.”

She added:

If you look at the Hungarian political scene, you will see right-wing parties – Fidesz, Our Homeland, Tisza – they want weaker Europe.

We want stronger Europe, and we especially want social Europe.

Updated

Digital detectives in Paris have discovered hundreds of pro-Russia adverts on Facebook.

AI Forensics, which has been monitoring propaganda efforts on Facebook for months, says 275 pro-Russian propaganda ads collectively reached more than 3m accounts on Facebook.

Accounts on Facebook in France and Germany have both been targeted with Italy and Poland heavily targeted for the first time in the past few weeks, AI Forensics said.

It found 61 adverts reaching nearly 1.5m accounts in Italy between 1 May and 27 May, with 101 adverts targeting France for the same period, and 75 targeting Germany and 38 reaching about 350,000 accounts in Poland.

Marc Faddoul, founder of the not-for-profit service that investigates opaque and influential algorithms, says the pro-Russia adverts are being platformed from dormant Facebook accounts and run for just two or three days to avoid detection.

Some link to doppleganger sites such as Lepoint.wf, a take on the French newspaper website but with a ‘wf’ country code belonging to little known south Pacific islands Wallis and Futuna.

Referring to new EU laws regulating the online giants, Faddoul said it was able to scrutinise the adverts “thanks to the Digital Services Act and Meta for good implementation of the ad transparency mandated by the DSA”.

But he said more needed to be done.

Up until recently the advertisers also tried to disguise their pro-Russia and anti-Ukraine content by breaking up the country name with dots with one advert from “Grubby Excellent” complaining about why Europeans were “voting for the U.K.ai.n”

He said they quickly changed to using commas to prevent recognition by Facebook moderators.

Meta, owner of Facebook said it took action against the ads “most within hours of being created.

It also said the methodology used by AI Forensics did not consider its “proactive moderation” which had removed 430,000 adverts in the EU between July and December last year.

It said Meta first exposed the Doppelganger campaign in 2022, and since then it had been “investigating, disrupting, and blocking” content relating to this network.

“This is a highly adversarial space with malicious groups constantly evolving their tactics to evade detection by companies across the internet, which is why we invest heavily in regularly sharing our threat research publicly and with our industry peers, researchers and with law enforcement so we can keep raising our collective defences,” said a Meta spokesperson.

Who is Péter Magyar, the candidate shaking up Hungarian politics?

Péter Magyar is a political newcomer who is causing headaches for Hungary’s government – and other opposition parties.

He went from being virtually unknown just a few months ago to polling at 27% among decided voters for the European election.

An ex-diplomat who used to be married to Hungary’s former justice minister, Magyar told the Guardian in an interview in April that his experience as a regime insider can help him succeed where other opposition figures have failed, citing his “crazy” rise in the polls and “vision” as signs that change is possible.

He has differentiated himself from Hungary’s struggling opposition parties by criticising not only Orbán but also some of the government’s opponents, and asking conservative, leftwing and liberal Hungarians to join his movement.

Magyar’s messaging has focused heavily on domestic issues, in particular fighting corruption and improving Hungarians’ quality of life.

In the interview, he criticised Brussels but also stressed the need for a constructive relationship with the EU. “I can tell you that I’m a bit closer to the position of Fidesz than the opposition, but what’s for sure is that we are a member of the club and we should behave like a member of the club,” he said.

Read the full story.

Updated

New Hungarian poll: Orbán's Fidesz 50%, Magyar's Tisza 27%

Among decided Hungarian voters, the ruling Fidesz party is polling at 50%, while Péter Magyar’s Tisza party is at 27%, according to a new study by Medián, HVG reports.

The opinion poll results mean Fidesz-KDNP could take at least 11 seats, Tisza 6, and an alliance of social democrats led by the Democratic Coalition 2 seats.

Fidesz could take even more seats if some smaller parties don’t make it into the parliament at all.

The ruling party’s overall popularity among Hungarian adults is at 35%.

Updated

Von der Leyen campaigns in Austria

Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president and lead candidate for the European People’s party, has been campaigning in Austria today.

You can catch up on our coverage of the Austrian campaign on yesterday’s live blog, where we heard from three candidates: Andreas Schieder, lead candidate for Austria’s Social Democratic party, Reinhold Lopatka, lead candidate for the Austrian People’s party, and Anna Stürgkh, a candidate for the liberal NEOS party.

'Keeping the crazies out': Irish voters weigh in

Voters in Ireland are casting ballots in local and European elections that have become a test for the far-right and mainstream parties.

“Keeping the crazies out, that’s the main thing,” said Ger, in his 40s, after voting in Dun Laoghaire in south Dublin. “I’m quite concerned that one of them will get elected to Europe.”

He was referring to candidates that link Ireland’s housing crisis to immigrants and asylum seekers. Some of the candidates are running as independents, others are members of micro-parties that proclaim “Ireland for the Irish”.

Such sentiments have been blamed for threats and and racist abuse of minority candidates and a slump in support for Sinn Fein, a left-wing opposition party that some former supporters deem “soft” on migration.

Helen, 69, outside another south Dublin polling station, said she had nothing against foreigners but had voted for parties that would prioritise accommodation for “forgotten” homeless Irish people. Her friend Linda, 76, said Ireland needed to build affordable homes. “You can’t get a rabbit hutch here for less than €300,000.”

The taoiseach and Fine Gael leader, Simon Harris, urged people to vote. “If you don’t turn up you’re allowing someone else to speak on your behalf,” he told reporters at the voting centre in his home constituency in County Wicklow. “We live in a healthy democracy and today is working proof of it.”

The Green party leader Eamon Ryan said he had not detected strong anti-government sentiment. “We’ll see if that’s reflected in the count in the end.” Fine Gael, the Greens and Fianna Fail rule in a centre-right coalition that must call a general election by March.

Spotlight: the European election in Hungary

Today’s live blog comes to you from Budapest, where an intense campaign is ongoing for both local and European parliament elections.

The ruling Fidesz party, led by far-right populist prime minister Viktor Orbán, is visibly nervous, amid the rapid rise of Péter Magyar – a former insider who switched sides and is now leading the biggest opposition force in Hungary.

Fidesz is still set to win, but a strong performance from Magyar would have a significant impact on Hungarian politics and put Orbán on the defensive ahead of a national election in two years.

The Hungarian government has been campaigning on what it describes as a “peace” platform, promoting conspiracies that the west is trying to drag Hungary and Hungarian soldiers into a war with Russia and a fake narrative that all of Orbán’s opponents are being paid by western governments and organisations to undermine the country’s national interest.

Magyar, who has presented himself as a centrist and tried to appeal to right-wing, left-wing and liberal voters, has been campaigning on an anti-corruption platform.

His unexpected appearance on the political scene has excited many voters, who have been turning out to his rallies across the country. But it has also led to debates among Orbán’s critics about his political positioning and impact on other political parties as other opposition groups declined in the polls.

Updated

In Ireland, Micheál Martin, the Tánaiste – or deputy prime minister – has voted along with his family. As well as European elections, local elections are also taking place in the country.

Reuters have reported on Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s address to the French parliament earlier today.

The Ukrainian president thanked France for its support and said he hoped to see French jets in his countries skies soon, a day after Emmanuel Macron said France plans to provide Mirage 2000 warplanes to Ukraine.

Zelenskiy has long expressed his frustration at how long western allies are taking to make key decisions on military support for Ukraine and actually send help in its war against Russia’s invasion.

“I’m sure that a day will come when Ukraine will see the same jets in our skies that we saw in Normandy skies yesterday,” Zelenskiy told French lawmakers, in reference to World War Two aircraft that flew over commemorations for the 80th anniversary of D-Day in Normandy, in which he took part on Thursday.

“Your combat aviation, brilliant fighter jets under Ukrainian pilots’ command, will prove that Europe is stronger, stronger than evil which dared to threaten it,” Zelenskiy said.

“Now, just like 80 years ago, we can prove it — the power of our unity, the power of our alliance, the power of our shared ideals.”

Andrej Babiš, the populist former Czech prime minister, is urging people to go to the polls.

His ANO party is leading in the polls, running a campaign criticising EU policies on migration and the environment.

Petr Fiala, the conservative Czech prime minister, says his electoral alliance will stop illegal migration to Europe.

The rival ANO, led by populist former prime minister Andrej Babiš, is leading in the polls.

Czechs begin voting later today in the European election.

“Europe’s at stake here,” Spanish MEP and leader of the Socialists and Democrats group in the European parliament Iratxe García said this morning.

“Faced with a [People’s party] PP that’s only been slinging mud during this campaign, people need a PSOE that’s strong, committed and that has a plan,” she said. García’s comments are a reference to the saga embroiling the wife of Spain’s socialist prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, which the conservative PP has been weaponising.

Sánchez’s wife, Begoña Gómez, is being investigated by a judge over allegations of corruption and influence-peddling. Sánchez has insisted on his wife’s innocence and dismissed the allegations as cheap, politically-motivated and designed to hurt both his family and the government he leads.

The right has been trying to make the European elections a referendum on the prime minister.

Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the PP leader, said yesterday: “Spain needs this victory. Let’s not put off until the general election what we can start doing in the European elections. Let’s start the change from Europe.”

As Czechs prepare to vote today and tomorrow, the country’s conservative prime minister, Petr Fiala, said his electoral alliance will reduce European bureaucracy.

Updated

There’s lots of excitement within the Dutch Green-Left-Labour alliance about exit poll results.

“This election is about change,” Sinn Féin’s Daithí Doolan said.

Fianna Fáil’s Micheál Martin posted a video on his campaign. There’s dancing.

As Irish citizens go to the polls today, the country’s prime minister, Simon Harris, said he wants “to meet banks and discuss what that landscape means for Irish mortgages & for families.”|

‘You can feel a shift’: will the French be lured by Le Pen?

Céline, a civil servant and administrator in several French government ministries, used to keep quiet about the fact that she voted for the far-right, anti-immigration party of Marine Le Pen. “I couldn’t talk about it at work; people would say: ‘You’re a fascist.’ It was frowned upon – it was almost a sackable offence,” said the 68-year-old, who retired three years ago.

But today, even in her hometown of Boulogne-Billancourt, west of Paris, where the largely well-off residents have been historically closed to the far right, and voted 83% for the centrist Emmanuel Macron in the 2022 presidential final round, Céline has noticed a shift in the public mood.

Across France, Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National (RN) is polling at a historic high of about 33% in Sunday’s European elections, more than double Macron’s grouping on about 16%.

National politics has become increasingly focused on the far-right’s progress to the next presidential race in 2027, and whether anything will be capable of holding it back.

“Today, there’s more of a sense of people getting onboard with Le Pen’s ideas – it’s as if there has been a lightbulb moment,” Céline, who did not want to give her surname, said. “You don’t see immigrants here, but 10km away in the Paris banlieue you do. I live a comfortable life, but I have my eyes open, and it’s revolting out there for people who don’t have much money. The problem is immigration; people feel invaded.”

Read the full story here.

Here are the latest polling numbers from Germany.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, got a standing ovation in the French parliament.

He thanked France for its support.

Updated

Zelenskiy addresses French parliament

As the European elections continue, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, the Ukrainian president, is addressing the French national assembly.

Watch here:

Updated

In the Netherlands, exit polling showed that the top concern for voters was migration and asylum, followed by heath care.

'Narrative of the rise of the far-right has been beaten,' Green candidate says after Dutch exit poll

“The narrative of the rise of the far-right has been beaten in the Netherlands,” the Greens’ Bas Eickhout said.

“Of course it’s still tight, but we have won – a progressive coalition has won in the Netherlands. So really, this is a good example, and this is the message for the rest of Europe: Go out to vote! Go and vote for a strong and progressive Europe. We can do it, we can beat them,” he added.

Updated

'So proud': Wilders celebrates in the Netherlands

Far-right politician Geert Wilders has welcomed the exit poll results in the Netherlands.

“So proud of the results in the last year. We won the national elections half a year ago. We’ll join the Dutch government soon. And the PVV had the best result and biggest gains ever in the EU elections!” he wrote, thanking his voters.

Dutch left takes narrow lead: exit poll

Dutch voters cast their ballots in the European election yesterday.

Broadcaster NOS has published an exit poll showing the Green-Left-Labour alliance with a narrow lead over the far-right Freedom party (PVV).

Geert Wilders’ PVV is projected to take 7 seats, compared to one seat in the last European election, according to the poll.

However, the exit poll has an error margin of about one seat.

Ireland heads to the polls to vote in local and European elections

Voters in Ireland are going to the polls in local and European elections that have been dominated by a housing shortage and a backlash against immigrants and refugees.

A record number of far-right candidates are on the ballot for local councils and the European parliament but it is unclear if many will get elected and join an expected far-right surge across Europe.

Parties from the ruling coalition have sought to neuter the threat by hardening rhetoric and measures against migrants and asylum seekers. The far-right has also dented its prospects with a proliferation of candidates that will split their vote.

Polling stations opened at 7am local time and will close at 10pm.

Ireland will send 14 MEPs to Europe, accounting for 2% of the 720-seat chamber. Voters will also fill 949 city and county council seats in 31 local government authorities and choose a mayor for Limerick.

With polls showing that almost two-thirds of voters want tougher controls on immigration, the centre-right government has reduced welfare support, expanded enforcement and removed encampments to deter fresh arrivals.

That appears to have helped stabilise support for the Greens and Fianna Fáil and to have bolstered Fine Gael, the third party in the coalition led by the taoiseach, Simon Harris.

Read the full story here.

Welcome to the blog

Good morning and welcome back to the European elections blog.

Voters will Ireland go to the polls today, and voters in the Czech Republic will be voting today and tomorrow.

We will be delving into the latest on the campaign trail and polling places.

Send tips and comments to lili.bayer@theguardian.com.

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