Europe is scrambling to remilitarise. The European Commission is raising a €150bn (£129bn) defence fund and is calling on EU countries to invest €650bn (£561bn) more. Germany has cast aside its government debt limit to invest hundreds of billions of euros in defence. Poland will train every male of fighting age for battle, and envisages an army 500,000 strong. Latvia’s president has urged the rest of Europe to conscript citizens, as Latvia does. Even neutral Ireland is buying combat jets. No wonder Europe’s defence industry is booming. In just a few months, the share prices of several big weapons manufacturers have nearly doubled and doubled again. But, despite this new martial pulse, the continent is still sleepwalking towards disaster.
Europe can harden its shell and sharpen its claws, but it has done little to protect its soft underbelly against political manipulation. The US is capitulating to Russia over Ukraine because of political implosion at home, not military defeat. This story has been repeated many times in Europe’s history. Thucydides recounted how ancient Athens and Sparta sowed discord and cultivated traitors in each other’s camps. Europe’s leaders must remember this lesson and confront three new realities.
