New research estimates that more than 61,000 people died as a result of soaring temperatures in 2022, Europe's hottest summer on record. France was among the worst-hit countries, with nearly 5,000 heat-related deaths.
Public health experts at the the Barcelona Institute for Global Health and the French National Institute of Health compared mortality figures from 35 countries across Europe against last year's record-breaking temperatures.
In a study published on Monday in the journal Nature Medicine, they calculate that 61,672 deaths were caused by heat between the end of May and early September 2022.
More than 11,600 people are estimated to have died in the hottest week alone, from 18 to 24 July.
Italy was the worst affected country, with 18,010 deaths last summer. Next was Spain, with 11,324 deaths, followed by Germany (8,173) and France (4,807).
Comparing the number of deaths against the total population, meanwhile, the highest mortality rates were all in southern Europe: in Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal.
Elderly at highest risk
The risk was highest in elderly people, according to the authors, who explain that hot weather can aggravate existing health conditions such as heart or respiratory disease.
Certain medications can also make it harder for the body to regulate its temperature, while isolation and lack of access to air conditioning or other cooling systems also increase the risks for many older people, as well as people with limited economic resources.
The researchers counted more heat-related deaths in women, who tend to live longer than men and therefore make up a larger share of the elderly population.
Heatwave emergency plans should take into account the different risk factors and target the most vulnerable populations, the experts recommend.
Temperature rising fastest in France
In people under 65, France had the highest number of deaths – 1,007, compared to 965 in Italy and 796 in Spain.
It also saw the highest spike in average temperature last summer, at 2.43 degrees Celsius above the previous average.
Climate change is driving Europe as a whole to heat up at twice the global average, previous research has shown, making it the world's fastest-warming continent.
While deaths in 2022 remained below the toll from Europe's deadliest heatwave on record, which killed more than 70,000 people in the summer of 2003, the earlier event was exceptional – hotter than anyone could have predicted based on previous years.
In contrast, last summer's heatwave was largely in line with the rapid rise in temperatures recorded over the past decade.
Many European countries have also put in place preparedness strategies and prevention plans in the past 20 years, yet the high number of deaths last summer suggests that these were only partly effective, the study said.
Unless better strategies are found to protect people against rising temperatures, by 2030 Europe will face an average of more than 68,000 heat-related deaths every summer, the study estimated.
By 2040, there would be an average of more than 94,000 heat-linked deaths – and by 2050, the number could rise to over 120,000, the researchers said.
(with AFP)
