US intelligence has been an essential part of Ukraine’s defence for over a decade. Since the invasion of Crimea in 2014 the US has been supplying Kyiv with a continuous stream of electronic, satellite and human intelligence. This has been decisive in the war with Russia in providing warnings and in making Ukrainian attacks on the Russian military more effective.
If President Donald Trump were to return to pausing, or withdrawing US military intelligence from Kyiv, its depth and breadth will be very difficult to replace. Europe remains the most obvious source of replacement intelligence capabilities, but as yet cannot equal the US’s scale, speed and quality of military intelligence.
A US withdrawal of intelligence will leave Ukraine with less real-time intelligence about Russian military formations and movements. It will also reduce Kyiv’s targeting accuracy on the battlefield. Ukraine is likely to be exposed to more aerial attacks and heavier military and civilian casualties, because of receiving fewer warnings.
