A Russian defeat in Ukraine will not derail China’s rise, while relations between Beijing and the EU will be “critically affected” if Xi Jinping does not push Vladimir Putin to withdraw his forces, European ministers have been told.
The message comes in a paper drawn up by the EU foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, who is meeting the EU’s 27 foreign ministers on Friday in Stockholm to discuss how the bloc should “recalibrate” its policy towards Beijing.
Along with the war in Ukraine, relations with China have become Europe’s most pressing foreign policy issue, but EU politicians take different approaches on how to respond to an increasingly repressive and nationalistic Beijing – revealed in the furore over Emmanuel Macron’s comments about not being drawn into a US-China clash over Taiwan.
In a letter to ministers to accompany the paper, Borrell highlights at least three reasons to adjust the EU’s approach: China’s internal changes “with nationalism and ideology on the rise”; the “hardening of US-China competition” in all areas and China’s status as a key regional and global player.
As EU talks got under way, Beijing announced it would send a special envoy to Ukraine, Russia and other European countries next week. China’s special representative for Eurasian affairs, Li Hui, will lead a delegation to Ukraine, becoming the most senior Chinese diplomat to visit the country since the full-scale invasion of 2022. He will also visit Poland, France, Germany and Russia to “communicate with all parties on the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis”, according to a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson.
The choice of Li, however, raises questions about China’s claims to be a neutral player. Li served as ambassador to Moscow for a decade until 2019 and was awarded an Order of Friendship medal by Putin.
European tensions with China have intensified since the Chinese and Russian leaders declared a “no-limits partnership” a few weeks before the invasion of Ukraine.
“China is siding clearly with Russia,” states the paper seen by the Guardian, which describes China’s purported peace plan for Ukraine as “a collection of China’s well-known positions on the matter” that “confirms its firmly pro-Russian stance”.
In his letter to ministers Borrell makes clear the EU sees Moscow as the junior partner to Beijing: “The China issue is much more complex than the Russia issue [because] unlike Russia, China is a real systemic actor.”
While arguing for a “clear-eyed” approach, Borrell also writes that the EU must engage with China and the US to reduce tensions over the Taiwan strait. That strikes a different note to Macron, who warned against Europe getting caught up in “crises that are not ours”.
In carefully calibrated words, the EU paper warns against being drawn into “zero-sum” thinking. “Coordination with the United States will remain essential. However, the EU should not subscribe to an idea of a zero-sum game whereby there can only be one winner, in a binary contest between the US and China.”
Meanwhile, EU diplomats are holding separate talks in Brussels on whether seven Chinese companies should face sanctions for helping Russia evade western import bans. The potential move is part of a wider aim to clamp down on countries, such as those in central Asia, the Caucasus and the Middle East, deemed to be helping Moscow dodge western sanctions.
While the goal of stopping non-EU countries from aiding Russia commands widespread EU support, several member states are uneasy about targeting China. Germany is wary of listing Chinese companies, while Berlin, Paris and Rome are unhappy with the way the European Commission made a proposal without consulting member states before details leaked to the press.
EU member states think they should be in the driving seat of determining which foreign businesses to target, rather than the EU executive in Brussels: “We are worried they [the commission] will do it badly and antagonise a lot of countries,” one senior diplomat said.
The source added that “probably the case is good” for listing the Chinese companies, a symbolic move that would freeze European assets and discourage western lenders, but added: “We need to improve the way we share information and intelligence.”
The latest China paper largely reflects a hawkish speech by the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, in March, in which she called for reducing dependency on Chinese raw materials and green technology, as part of a wider “de-risking” of relations.
But the EU is also cautious about damaging routine trade with China – with total goods trade worth €1.9bn (£1.68bn) a day. Von der Leyen and Borrell argue against “decoupling” from China, a middle ground versus the more confrontational approach they perceive from the US.
The EU defined China in 2019 as a “partner”, “economic competitor” and “systemic rival”. Borrell wrote that it was obvious in recent years that the “rivalry aspect” had become more important.
