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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
World
Jonathan Yerushalmy (now); Lili Bayer and Ashifa Kassam (earlier)

Von der Leyen says ‘centre is holding’ as far right surges in EU elections – as it happened

European Union Europe France Germany Italy Poland Spain
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen poses during an event at the European People's Party headquarters in Brussels
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen poses during an event at the European People's Party headquarters in Brussels Photograph: Geert Vanden Wijngaert/AP

Closing summary

It’s 3.45am in Brussels, where EU lawmaking is set to get more complicated, after parties on the populist right made huge gains in the European elections on Sunday, while the pro-European centre also appeared to have held.

We’re closing our live coverage for now, but will be back soon with reactions across the continent to these seismic results.

  • Despite gains for the far and radical right on Sunday, the mainstream, pro-European parties were on course to hold their majority in the EU parliament. The centre-right European People’s party (EPP), which also topped the polls in Spain and Poland, won the largest number of seats, boosting the chances of its lead candidate, Ursula von der Leyen, to secure a second term as European Commission president. “There remains a majority in the centre for a strong Europe and that is crucial for stability. In other words the centre is holding,” von der Leyen said. The extremes on the left and right had gained support, she said, which put “great responsibility on the parties in the centre”.

  • Socialists won the largest share of the vote in Malta, Romania and Sweden, helping the centre-left to retain its position as the parliament’s second-largest group, albeit far weaker than the 1990s, when it led many more governments. The EPP, Socialists and Democrats, the centrist Renew group and the Greens were on course for 462 of the 720 seats, a 64.1% share, compared with their 69.2% share in the slightly smaller outgoing parliament, according to a projection based on final and provisional results late on Sunday.

  • In France, Emmanuel Macron called snap legislative elections after a crushing defeat of his allies by Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally. The RN won about 32% of French votes, more than double the 15% or so scored by Macron’s allies, according to projections, with the Socialists just behind on about 14%. “I cannot act as if nothing had happened,” Macron said. “I have decided to give you the choice.”

  • Olaf Scholz’s coalition had a bad night in Germany, as the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) made significant gains. The Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union, now in opposition, took a decisive lead, with 30.9% of the vote, according to provisional results. The AfD jumped to 14.2% from 11% in 2019, despite a slew of scandals, including its lead candidate saying that the SS, the Nazi’s main paramilitary force, were “not all criminals”.

  • Italian prime minister Georgia Meloni’s thanked voters after exit polls showed her hard-right Brothers of Italy party winning 26%-30% of the vote, comfortably ahead of its centre-left rivals on 21%-25%.

  • The Nordic countries bucked the overall trend in the EU elections, with left-wing and green parties making gains, official results showed, while far-right parties saw their support diminish. Denmark saw a surprise surge in support for the Socialist People’s Party (SF), which became the largest party with 17.4% of the vote, up 4.2 percentage points compared to the 2019 result – with all votes counted.

  • Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer has said he heard voters’ “message” and will seek to address their concerns ahead of national elections later this year, including cracking down on “illegal migration”. Nehammer was speaking after close-to-final results showed that far-right party FPOe had come first in EU elections with 25.7% of the vote, just ahead of his ruling conservative People’s Party (OeVP) which stood at 24.7%.

  • In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders’ far-right party was second behind a Left-Green alliance, but appeared to have fallen short of expectations. The Freedom party took 17% of the vote, while the Left-Green alliance, led by the former EU Commission vice-president Frans Timmermans, was on 21.1%.

  • The Fidesz party of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán received the most votes, but its performance was its worse in years. With 84.36% of votes counted, the ruling party was at 44.17%, while Péter Magyar’s opposition Tisza party was at 30.09%. Magyar called the election the Fidesz government’s Waterloo and “the beginning of the end”.

Denmark's leftwing Socialist People’s Party (SF) see surprising surge

Denmark saw a surprise surge in support for the Socialist People’s Party (SF), which became the largest party with 17.4% of the vote, up 4.2 percentage points compared to the 2019 result – with all votes counted.

The ruling Social Democrats lost 5.9 percentage points, winning 15.6% of the votes.

Prime minister Mette Frederiksen said that SF was the party closest to the Social Democrats politically and that she was happy to see left-wing parties gaining ground.

“In large parts of Europe, the right-wing has made significant progress. Here we stand out in Denmark,” she said in a post on Instagram.

The Nordic countries bucked the overall trend in the EU elections, with left-wing and green parties making gains, official results showed, while far-right parties saw their support diminish.

In Sweden, the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats, which is propping up Ulf Kristersson’s government, had been expected to gain votes and pass Kristersson’s conservative Moderate Party to become the second largest party – as it did in the country’s 2022 general election.

Instead, the party ended up losing ground for the first time in the party’s history. It won 13.2% of the vote, down 2.1 percentage points from the 2019 election – with more than 90% of votes counted.

The Green party emerged as the country’s third largest with 13.8% of the vote, an increase of 2.3 percentage points compared to the 2019 election.

The Left Party also saw a boost of 4.2 percentage points, reaching 11%.

Why has Macron called a snap parliamentary election?

One of the biggest shocks of the night has been Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call a snap parliamentary election that will be held within the next 30 days.

After suffering a crushing defeat at the hands of Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) in the European parliamentary elections, Macron said he had made the “serious and heavy” decision.

The president said he would not resign himself to the fact that “far-right parties … are progressing everywhere on the continent”.

He described it as “an act of confidence”, saying he had faith in France’s voters and “in the capacity of the French people to make the best choice for themselves and for future generations”.

The French president’s centrist coalition lost its parliamentary majority in the 2022 elections and has since resorted to pushing through legislation without a vote in the assembly, using a controversial constitutional tool known as 49/3.

Sunday’s dramatic move, however, is a huge gamble: Macron’s party could suffer yet more losses, effectively hobbling the rest of his presidential term and potentially handing Marine Le Pen even more power.

Most analysts, however, predict that while the far-right party may emerge with more MPs, it will probably not win enough seats to give it a majority either – meaning the next parliament may be even messier and more ineffective than the current one.

It could be that he is looking at a neutralising “cohabitation effect”. If RN were to score well and, for example, Bardella were offered the job of prime minister, two and a half years in government may be just enough time to render the far right unpopular too.

Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer has said he hears voters’ “message” and will seek to address their concerns ahead of national elections later this year, including cracking down on “illegal migration”.

Nehammer was speaking after close-to-final results showed that far-right party FPOe had come first in EU elections with 25.7% of the vote, just ahead of his ruling conservative People’s Party (OeVP) which stood at 24.7%.

FPOe’s share surged from 17% in 2019, with its leader Herbert Kickl saying on Sunday that voters had opened “a new era in politics in Austria and Europe”.

“This era is characterised by the fact that it is the people who are at the centre and not the disconnected elites of the system,” he told cheering supporters in downtown Vienna, adding the “next step is the chancellery”.

International media were barred from the party event, according to Agence France-Presse, with the FPOe citing space restrictions.

The FPOe is also expected to top the vote in national elections expected to be held in September, but it remains to be seen if it can find partners to form a majority to govern.

Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni has thanked voters after initial results showed her Brothers of Italy group had won the most votes in Italy’s European parliamentary election.

Projected forecasts based on the early count said Brothers of Italy had won 28.3%, more than four times what it took in the last EU election in 2019 and beating the 26% it secured in the 2022 national ballot, when it rose to power.

“THANK YOU!” Meloni wrote on X, adding that results confirmed Brothers of Italy as the “leading Italian party”.

The opposition centre-left Democratic Party (PD) came in second on 23.7% with another opposition group, the 5-Star Movement, coming third on 10.5% – its worst showing at a countrywide level since its creation in 2009.

The one disappointment for all parties will be turnout, which came in at just below 50%, initial data suggested, a record low in a country that has had historically strong voter participation.

Belgium PM set to resign after general election

Belgium is heading for a new government after a general election in which an expected surge for the far right party Vlaams Belang failed to materialise and the outgoing governing coalition headed by liberal prime minister Alexander De Croo lost its ability to form a majority.

Vlaams Belang’s arch rival the nationalist party N-VA (New Flemish Alliance) was on course to remain the largest party in Belgium’s parliament on Sunday while De Croo’s liberal party, Open VLD, slumped in Flanders, the Dutch speaking part of the country.

De Croo will remain caretaker prime minister until a new coalition, currently involving seven parties, is formed. According to protocol, he will hand in his resignation to Belgium’s King Philippe on Monday at the royal palace in Brussels.

The result came on a day of triple elections for Belgians who were also voting for regional and European elections.

  • This is Jonathan Yerushalmy, picking up our live coverage from Lili Bayer.

Spain’s socialist prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has congratulated the conservative People’s party (PP), as well as his own party allies.

He also said his government is the only option capable of facing the far-right wave that is sweeping Europe and Spain.

A view of the European parliament tonight.

Updated provisional results and estimates for key races

1. Germany

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU): 30.7%

Social Democratic party (SPD): 14.5%

Alternative for Germany (AfD): 14.5%

Greens: 12.5%

BSW: 5.5%

FDP: 5.4%

2. France

The far-right National Rally, led by Jordan Bardella: 31.5%

Renaissance, Modem, Horizons, UDI led by Valérie Hayer: 14.5%

Socialists and Place Publique led by Raphaël Glucksmann: 14%

3. Hungary

Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz: 44.30%

Péter Magyar’s Tisza: 29.96%

4. Slovakia

Progressive Slovakia: 27.8%

Robert Fico’s Smer: 24.8%

Republika: 12.5%

Hlas: 7.2%

5. Spain

Conservative People’s party (PP): 34.18%

Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist party: 30.19%

Far-right Vox: 9.62%

Updated

'The beginning of the end': Hungary's political newcomer celebrates results

Hungary’s Viktor Orbán took the stage in Hungary a little while ago, the sound of the song Listen to Your Heart – a longtime Fidesz tradition – and declared victory.

But there were also big celebrations at the election event of former government insider-turned-opposition politician Péter Magyar’s Tisza party.

Orbán’s Fidesz got the most votes, but its performance has been its worse in years.

With 84.36% of votes counted, the ruling party was at 44.17%, while Magyar’s Tisza was at 30.09%.

At Tisza’s election night event, supporters were chanting: “We are the future!”

Magyar called the election the Fidesz government’s Waterloo and “the beginning of the end”.

The outcome of today’s local and European elections marks a shift in the Hungarian political landscape and could set the tone ahead of national elections in 2026.

Updated projections

European People’s party: 189

Socialists and Democrats: 135

Renew Europe: 83

European Conservatives and Reformists: 72

Identity and Democracy: 58

Greens/EFA: 53

The Left: 35

Non-attached: 45

Others: 50

Far-right makes gains as Ursula von der Leyen says 'centre is holding' but world in 'turmoil'

Amid a surge in support for the far-right in countries including France and Germany, the European centre-right’s candidate declared “the centre is holding”– but also warned “the world around us is in turmoil.”

Speaking to reporters at the European parliament late Sunday as election results were coming in, Ursula von der Leyen said “today is a good day for the European People’s party.”

The EPP is set to take 189 seats in the European parliament, according to the latest projections, followed by the Socialists and Democrats with 135 and Renew Europe with 83.

But the European Conservatives and Reformists group, which includes parties such as Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, is projected to take 72 seats and the far-right Identity and Democracy 58.

“We won the European elections,” von der Leyen declared. “This election has given us two messages,” she said, adding:

First, there remains a majority in the centre for a strong Europe, and that is crucial for stability. In other words, the centre is holding.

But it is also true that the extremes on the left and on the right have gained support, and this is why the result comes with great responsibility for the parties in the centre. We may differ on individual points, but we all have an interest in stability, and we all want a strong and effective Europe.

The lead candidate also said that she wants to continue working “with those who are pro-European, pro-Ukraine, pro-rule of law.”

Von der Leyen, who is the current European Commission president and aims to serve a second term, warned that “of course this election does not take place in a vacuum.”

“The world around us is in turmoil. Forces from the outside and from the inside are trying to destabilise our societies, and they are trying to weaken Europe. We will never let that happen,” she said.

“These election results show that the majority of Europeans want a strong Europe,” she concluded.

Updated

Walter Baier, lead candidate for the European Left, has said the rise of Sahra Wagenknecht’s support in Germany was a protest against social deprivation and weakening public services in eastern parts of the country.

“I feel the rise of … Sahra Wagenknecht is one of the symptoms of the disillusionment of broad layers of society, with the current politics, with the politics of social degradation, with the politics of new liberal downsizing of public services, particularly in the eastern parts of Germany,” he said.

Updated

Updated provisional results

European People’s party: 191

Socialists and Democrats: 135

Renew Europe: 83

European Conservatives and Reformists: 71

Identity and Democracy: 57

Greens/EFA: 53

The Left: 35

Non-attached: 45

Others: 50

Updated

Big night for Hungarian politics as Orbán's Fidesz weakened

Big shifts are under way in Hungarian politics. Here are the latest numbers, with 64.24% of votes counted.

Viktor Orbán’s ruling Fidesz is at merely 43.7%, compared with the 52% it won in the last European election.

Updated

Latest estimates for Italy

Brothers of Italy: 28%

Democratic Party: 23%

Five Stars Movement: 12%

Forza Italia: 9.5%

League: 9%

How do the numbers compare?

Based on the current provisional results:

European People’s party: 189 seats. Gained 13

Socialists and Democrats: 135 seats. Lost 4 seats

Renew Europe: 80 seats. Lost 22 seats

European Conservatives and Reformists: 72 seats: Gained 3 seats

Identity and Democracy: 58 seats; Gained 9 seats

Greens/EFA: 52 seats Lost 72

Journalists in the room could be heard sighing as it was announced that Emmanuel Macron’s ally, Valérie Hayer, is not present and won’t be speaking.

Nicolas Schmit, the lead candidate for the European socialists, is speaking now at the European parliament.

There is no place, no possibility for social democrats to cooperate with those who want to weaken Europe, he declared.

Update from our correspondent in Greece

Over in Greece the biggest winner of today’s ballot - unquestionably- was the no-show vote with abstention rates reaching close to 60 percent, the highest ever. Unheard of in an otherwise deeply politicised nation.

But there were clear ballot box messages, too, and the first to understand that tonight was the Greek prime minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, whose centre-right New Democracy party lagged 14 points behind the vote share it achieved in national elections last July, and at 28.6%, five percent behind its declared goal of attaining 33% this evening.

Although leftwing main opposition Syriza won 14.7%- lower than the 17% it clinched in national polls last year - Mitsotakis was quick to recognise that the results were disappointing.

“I will not hide the truth. Our party did not reach the goal we had set ... We knew from the beginning that this election would be very difficult. Citizens who supported us in 2023 knew that now they were not electing a government and, perhaps faced this battle differently,” he said in a late night address.

People had practical problems to deal with - such as soaring prices as a result of the cost of living crisis - and wanted to send a message, he said.

Mitsotakis, though doing well as a centre right leader more generally in Europe, is also acutely aware of the rise (and appeal) of the far-right in Greece with parties to the right of New Democracy, such as nationalist Greek Solution, coming in fourth with 9.3%.

“These elections are the starting point of a new path toward 2027,” he said referring to the next national election while vowing to concentrate on everyday issues affecting Greeks.

The centre is holding, Ursula von der Leyen says while acknowledging extremes gained support

Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president and lead candidate for the centre-right European People’s party, is on stage.

She has thanked the European voters for their trust.

“Today is a good day for the European People’s party. We won the European elections,” she declared, speaking to reporters in the European parliament.

The EPP is an anchor of stability, she said.

This election has given us two messages, she said: the centre is holding, but it is also true that the extremes on the left and right have gained support, and this is why the result comes with great responsibility for the parties in the centre, she said.

We all have an interest in stability, she stressed, adding that as of tomorrow she will be reaching out to the Socialists and Democrats and Renew Europe.

We are now building on a constructive and proven relationship, she said.

Von der Leyen said that her aim is to continue on the same path with those who are pro-European, pro-Ukraine, pro-rule of law.

The world around us is in turmoil, the Commission president said, noting that some are trying to weaken Europe. “We will never let that happen,” she declared.

“These election results show that the majority of Europeans want a strong Europe,” she said.

Updated

New provisional results for European parliament

New provisional results have been announced:

Centre-right European People’s party: 189

Socialists and Democrats: 135

Renew Europe: 80

European Conservatives and Reformists: 72

Far-right Identity and Democracy: 58

Greens: 52

The Left: 36

This post has been corrected, after the European parliament reported the wrong numbers.

Updated

New Hungarian opposition party at around 31%: early results

With 51.12% of votes counted, Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán’s ruling Fidesz party is at 43.57%, while Péter Magyar’s new opposition party Tisza is at 30.99%.

An opinion poll before the election predicted that Fidesz would take 50%. If confirmed, these results show Orbán has performed far worse than expected and that political newcomer Magyar has managed to reach a wide audience.

Updated

As voting continues in Hungary, here are the latest results.

With 98% of votes counted, Dutch media report that the far-right Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom has not done as well as he thought.

The Netherlands clearly voted for the Labour/Green Left alliance first (8 seats) and the Party for Freedom second (6 seats, not 7).

The size of the Dutch far right representation is similar to the last European election after Brexit.

Matteo Salvini’s far-right League, a member of the ruling coalition, is polling between 8-10%, a complete reverse in fortunes for a party that won 34% in the 2019 European elections.

The numbers for the League are a complete reverse in fortunes for a party that won 34% in the 2019 European elections.

Salvini was hoping to regain some ground by backing independent candidate Roberto Vannaci, a general who was suspended from the army for views deemed offensive towards gay people and ethnic minorities.

The late Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, another coalition partner, is slightly ahead of the League.

Meanwhile, in Hungary:

Budapest’s incumbent opposition mayor Gergely Karácsony is behind as votes are counted in the local elections.

Europe’s centre-right is celebrating tonight.

Dutch election results

And here are the Dutch numbers.

Meloni's Brothers of Italy leading in Italy, according to poll

Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy had a clear lead in a poll by Rai.

Brothers of Italy: 26%-30%

Centre-left Democratic party: 21%-25%

Five Star Movement: 10-14%

Forza Italia: 8.5%-10.5%

Matteo Salvini’s far-right League: 8-10%

Updated

We’re waiting for an estimate for Italy, a heavyweight.

French hard-left politician Jean-Luc Mélenchon has called on supporters to gather now.

EPP claims victory

Addressing reporters in the European parliament, Manfred Weber, the centre-right European People’s party leader, claimed victory.

He invited the Social Democrats and Renew Europe to join an alliance.

It a “good day” today for the EPP, he said.

Asked why he didn’t mention the Greens, he said the starting point is to invite Socialists and liberals to work together.

The next step will be for the German chancellor and French president to confirm the proposal for Ursula von der Leyen to become president of the European Commission again, he said.

He also said talks will continue with Hungarian opposition politician Péter Magyar, praising Hungarians who have taken to the streets.

Updated

The French far-right National Rally’s Jordan Bardella said “we are ready to constitute a new majority for France.”

“I call on the French to join us and get involved,” he added.

Raphaël Glucksmann, lead candidate for the French Socialists and Place Publique list, has called for a bringing together for the next elections “a social, ecological, democratic, and pro-European alternative.”

Dara Murphy, former vice president of the centre-right European People’s party, and former Irish European affairs minister described the exit polls in Germany, France and Austria were “dark results for Europe particularly in the second largest member state”.

But he said it now behoved the EPP, the liberals, socialists, Greens and others to stop “playing games” and properly pull together against the far right.

“I think any of us who are pro-European and pro-democracy have to be saddened by it to be honest,” he said.

“On the other hand, you still see a significant bloc in the centre. If you include the Greens, we have well over 450 MEPs who will be returned,” he added.

“There is now a huge responsibility in a way to reduce the games, because we now face a proper opposition in the far right. We have been voted to do a job and we have to do that. And I have been heartened at how clear the EPP has been to say they would not in any shape or form work with the far right.”

He was speaking at the EPP celebrations at the Stanhope Hotel in Brussels.

Updated

High turnout in Germany

Voter participation in Germany for the European election was between 64 and 65%, the highest ever level for this election since reunification. This compares favourably with the turnout across the EU which was 51%.

In 1994, 60% of eligible Germans cast their ballots. Thereafter, the level fell to around just 40 to 50%. Five years ago, turnout was 61.4%.

The highest ever participation was 65.7% in 1979, the first ever European election, but this only involved voters in West Germany.

Manfred Weber, the German MEP and leader of the centre-right European People’s party, said his group is now the “stabilising” force in Europe, following the rise of the far right in Germany, France and Austria.

The EPP counts 13 prime ministers in its group including the Polish, Greek and Irish leaders, and is currently projected to get 181 seats in the European parliament.

Weber said “voters are not opting for this extreme right positioning. In France and Germany that is a domestic situation, but we are increasing our seats and that is helping us stabilise the centre.”

“The left has no legitimacy any more, people voted for the centre right and that is good news for Europe,” he said.

He was speaking at celebrations for the EPP at the Stanhope hotel in Brussels.

Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president and lead candidate for the centre-right European People’s party (EPP), has just addressed the party faithful at the Stanhope elections, greeted to roars of “five more years, five more years” as she took to the stage.

“We had a fantastic campaign, we were determined, we were united, we made it and now we won the European elections,” she said.

“This is a good day for the EPP,” she shouted to applause. “We won the elections.”

“First of all I want to thank the voters who trusted us their vote and counted on us,” she said.

Von der Leyen told her campaigners to enjoy the night but from tomorrow it was “work” to deliver to voters across Europe.

Updated

Turnout across EU at 51%

As it stands now, provisional turnout for the European election is at 51%, the European parliament has announced.

This is slightly higher than the previous election.

Updated

Estimates for Portugal

Socialist party: 31.4%

Centre-right Democratic Alliance: 30.6%

Liberal Initiative: 9.8%

Far-right Chega: 9.2%

LIVRE: 4.4%

Eric Ciotti, leader of the Republicans in France, said that Emmanuel Macron’s decision to dissolve parliament was the “only solution” after today’s results, Le Monde reported.

Meanwhile, there’s some singing outside the European parliament.

Estimate for Romania

Social Democratic Party (PSD)-National Liberal Party (PNL) joint list: 54%

The far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR): 14%

United Right Alliance: 11%

Updated

Estimate for Poland

An estimate has been published for Poland:

Prime minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition : 38.2%

The conservative Law and Justice: 33.9%

Far-right Konfederacja: 11.9%

Third Way: 8.2%

The Left: 6.6%

Raphaël Glucksmann, lead candidate for the French Socialists and Place Publique list, has criticised Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call a snap legislative election.

Le Pen welcomes new elections

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen has welcomed Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call a snap election.

Updated

Macron dissolves national assembly, calls snap elections

Emmanuel Macron, the French president, has announced that he is dissolving the national assembly, and calling for legislative elections on June 30 and July 7.

The French president said that he can’t pretend nothing has happened, that the outcome of the EU election is not good for his government and that the rise of nationalists is a danger for France and Europe.

Updated

Turnout in Hungary stood at 56.09% by 6:30pm.

What do today's results mean for Emmanuel Macron?

The crushing defeat of Emmanuel Macron’s centrist list at the hands of Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) is likely to make for an even more fraught end to his presidency, analysts have said.

Macron’s list is projected to score between 14.8% and 15.2% of the vote, less than half of RN’s tally of 31.5-33% - the party’s highest ever in a nationwide election - and only just ahead of the Socialist list on 14%.

Macron was due to address the nation later on Sunday evening. The head of the RN’s list, 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, said French voters had “expressed a desire for change” and demanded snap legislative elections.

Macron was “a weakened president tonight”, Bardella told supporters, saying the “unprecedented gap” in the two scores reflected “a stinging disavowal and rejection of the president and his government”.

Analysts have said Macron, whose centrist alliance does not have a majority in the French parliament, could face a very complicated two-and-a-half years before presidential elections due in spring 2027.

Problems may start piling up for the president after the summer break, observers say, when the centre-right Les Republicains (LR) opposition have threatened to bring a censure motion against the government.

Such a confidence vote could well bring down the government, which would realistically leave Macron facing a choice between seeking a new prime minister and calling an early parliamentary election.

“France is a particular concern,” said Mujtaba Rahman of the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group. Such a heavy defeat “could trigger censure motions, government collapse and even early (legislative) elections.”

Estimate for Denmark

An estimate has been published for Denmark:

Socialistisk Folkeparti (Green Left): 18.4%

Social Democrats, the party of the country’s prime minister, Mette Frederiksen: 15.4%

Venstre – Denmark’s Liberal Party: 13.9%

The Liberal Alliance, a party planning to join the centre-right European People’s party: 7.8%

Updated

Conservative PP in the lead in Spain, according to estimate

An estimate has been published for Spain:

Opposition leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s conservative People’s party (PP): 32.4%

Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez’s Socialist party (PSOE): 30.2%

The far-right Vox party: 10.4%

In Spain, the right has sought to turn the European election into a referendum on Sánchez.

Ahead of the vote, public attention has focused on a saga embroiling the prime minister’s wife, Begoña Gómez, who is being investigated over allegations of corruption and influence-peddling, which Sanchez has dismissed as politically-motivated and totally baseless.

In the estimate just published by the European parliament for France, this is the breakdown:

The far-right National Rally, led by Jordan Bardella: 31.5%

Renaissance, Modem, Horizons, UDI led by Valérie Hayer: 15.2%

Socialists and Place Publique led by Raphaël Glucksmann: 14%

First projection for new European parliament published

A first estimate for the whole parliament, based on 11 member states’ estimates, has been published.

Centre-right European People’s party: 181

Socialists and Democrats: 135

Renew: 82

European Conservatives and Reformists: 71

Far-right Identity and Democracy: 62

Greens: 53

The Left: 34

Updated

Roberta Metsola, the European parliament president, has taken the stage here at the European parliament in Brussels, addressing the press.

Updated

What's behind the French far-right's win?

The French far-right National Rally is heading for a massive win tonight, led by its 28-year old top candidate, Jordan Bardella.

Bardella, who was elected to the European parliament five years ago, has led the National Rally’s European campaign to unprecedented heights, taking 32.4% of the vote today based on the latest estimates.

He has taken a deliberately humble tone with voters, part of a strategy to deliver the final phase of far-right leader Marine Le Pen’s decade-long drive to soften the far-right party’s image.

Bardella does not seek to dilute the party’s hardline anti-immigration message, which has not changed since the 1970s; instead he wants to make it respectable and fully mainstream ahead of Le Pen’s fourth attempt at the presidency in 2027.

The French far-right National Rally’s high score in European elections is not new. From the mid-1980s, it has traditionally done well in European votes and topped the poll in France in the last two European elections, in 2014 and in 2019.

One major difference this time is that the rise of other far-right parties across the EU can give the French equivalent more international clout.

A second is that Bardella’s lead against French president Emmanuel Macron’s group is big – expected to be around 17 percentage points - whereas last time it was less than 1%. This shows not just that the far right has grown, but that Macron’s support has considerably fallen.

Updated

German far-right AfD welcomes party performance

The AfD leadership has welcomed the party’s performance in the European election, in which they look to have secured more than 16% of the vote according to exit polls.

Tino Chrupalla, its co-leader, described the result to broadcaster ZDF as a “super outcome”, saying his party had “accrued almost 50 per cent new voters”.

A sea of affairs and scandals around its leading candidates Maximilian Krah and Petr Bystron had clearly not dented the AfD’s attractivity to voters, he said.

Admitting that the party emerged with a poorer result than opinion polls had suggested ahead of the vote, some of which saw them with more than 20%, the party still gained 5.5% when compared to the 2019 vote, and as a result has emerged as the second strongest.

Alice Weidel, joint leader to Chrupalla, put her party’s strong standing down to an increasingly EU-sceptical stance amongst voters.

“All in all people are fed up with the fact that they are faced with so much bureaucracy from Brussels,” she told broadcaster ARD, citing in particular, its legislation to ban combustion engines.

Here is the centre-right European People’s party internal projection based on available exit polls.

Update from our correspondent in Rome

Turnout in Italy neared 39% by 7pm, according to data from the interior ministry.

Italians have until 11pm to cast their ballot, and are also voting in a host of local elections including Bari, Cagliari and Florence, a traditionally leftwing city being challenged by Eike Schmidt, the former director of the Uffizi galleries who is running for mayor on behalf of Italy’s ruling far-right coalition.

Meanwhile, there was disarray at a voting station in Naples after a scrutineer decided to leave and not return, allegedly because the pay was too low. She was subsequently reported to police, according to reports in the Italian press. TGcom24 reported that pay for scrutineers ranges between €56 and €110.

Far-right leading in France, according to estimate

The far-right has made significant gains in France, according to an estimate published just now, leaving Emmanuel Macron’s allies far behind in second place in a race that is closely-watched in France and around Europe.

The far-right National Rally, led by Jordan Bardella: 32.4%

Renaissance, Modem, Horizons, UDI led by Valérie Hayer: 15.2%

Socialists and Place Publique led by Raphaël Glucksmann: 14.3%

Updated

Young Germans desert Greens for far-right

Germany’s ZDF public television said German voters under 30 went in droves to the far right, with +10 points for AfD and -18 points for Greens compared to five years ago. Many also turned to smaller parties such as Volt.

The result was notable as it was the first time 16 and 17 year olds were allowed to cast ballots in Germany in a European election.

The live blog comes to you tonight from the European parliament.

Here’s a view from the Guardian team’s table.

'Look amongst ourselves to find the mistakes': German SPD reacts to projections

Meanwhile the SPD‘s general secretary Kevin Kühnert said his party, which secured just 14%, would “look amongst ourselves to find the mistakes we’ve made,” he said. “But we won’t be putting on sackcloth and ashes.”

He said it would be wrong to push the blame onto SPD leader and chancellor, Olaf Scholz.

“We had an honest and upstanding campaign. It would be very bad style to now push the blame onto one person.”

Hermann Binkert, head of the polling institute INSA called the result - in which all three parties in Scholz’s coalition government, including the pro-business FDP (around 5%) were punished by the voters - the equivalent of the electorate “handing the receipt” to the government for their disgruntlement.

According to a recent INSA poll, 70% of Germans are currently dissatisfied with the government, compared to 22% who are satisfied.

“Never has a government been so unpopular with the electorate. It looks unlikely that this coalition will regain its majority in the coming year,” Binkert told German media.

German Green party co-leader reacts

The co-leader of Germany’s Green party, Ricarda Lang, has reacted with disappointment to her party’s performance at the European election, in which it slumped to 12%, (from 20.5 five years ago) according to exit polls.

“This is below the expectation with which we went into this election and we will review this together,” she said on broadcaster ARD.

Lang said the world was a very different place from the time in which the election in 2019 took place, saying people were feeling very unsettled by many things, especially the issues of war and peace.

But a change of her party’s course regarding the conflict in Ukraine would not be on the cards, Lang said. “If Vladimir Putin (the Russian president) was allowed to win this war, the future in Germany would be considerably less peaceful,” Lang said.

What’s next?

At around 8:15pm, we are expecting estimates from France, Denmark and Spain.

We’re also expecting the first full estimate for the new parliament, based on 11 national estimates and pre-election data from 16 countries.

Green candidate 'disappointed' with German projected results

Bas Eickhout, one of the two lead European green party candidates, has said he is “disappointed” with the projected result in Germany but says if the Volt party comes through with three seats, the result may come good in the end for parties that care about climate emergency and the environment.

Volt is a pan-European federalist party, which joins the Greens under the Greens/Free Alliance for Europe political grouping in the European parliament. Its best known candidates are independent Dutch MEP Sophie in ’t Veld and German Damian Boeselager, already elected with Volt in 2019, who is part of the Greens/Free Alliance for Europe group.

Asked what a good result would look like tonight, he said the greens did not expect to repeat the success of 2019 when they made significant gains in France.

“In 2019, we had 10%. We knew we would not reach that. I think if we are around 7% or 8%, that would still be a pretty good result for us, I would say,” he told reporters.

He repeated that the Greens would not work with either the European Conservative and Reformists, the political group to which Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy belong or Identity and Democracy, the party to which Marine Le Pen’s National Rally belongs.

“Some are just climate deniers, even I would say climate sceptical is maybe too mild. So yes, of course I’m worried.”

Updated

Estimates for Croatia

The estimate for Croatia has been published:

Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), the conservative party of the country’s prime minister Andrej Plenković: 33.74%

SDP coalition: 27.81%

Homeland Movement (DP), a far-right party: 8.67%

Updated

Estimate published for Bulgaria

Here’s the estimate for Bulgaria:

GERB -SDS: 26.2%

We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB) party: 15.7%

Revival party: 15.4%

Movement for Rights and Freedom (DPS): 11.7%

Estimate for Malta

Labour party: 44.67%

Nationalist party: 42.52%

Update from France

At a smart party venue overlooking the woodland of the Bois de Vincennes east of Paris, members of Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National - RN) clinked glasses to the sound of gentle jazz piano as they waited for the results.

The mood at Jordan Bardella’s election night soirée was one of optimism an hour before polls closed in major French cities.

Near the cheese platter and pyramid of champagne glasses, one former senior gendarme said: “If the polls are right - and I believe they will be - our score tonight will be historic, and that will auger well for the next few years. It will mean that the party is at the gates of power in France. It will mean that in people’s minds, this party is the political alternative.”

Updated

Greens fear election outcome

Green parties are anxiously awaiting the official results of an election they fear could grind down Europe’s environmental ambitions, after exit polls show them slumping in their stronghold Germany.

The party has dropped 8.5 percentage points since the last election, from 20.5% in 2019 to 12% today, initial polls suggest. Its losses appear to be particularly pronounced among under-30s, who have shifted toward the far-right AfD and newer parties, the German public broadcaster reported.

Since wars and inflation have pushed climate change down the political agenda, European Green politicians have put democracy at the centre of their campaign strategy. They have positioned themselves as an opposition force to far-right parties seeking to rip up rules that cut pollution and protect wildlife.

That message, fleshed out on the campaign trail and echoed by young climate activists who are not formally backing any party, is unlikely to have convinced voters already rooting for the radical right. But it may have drawn in centrists alarmed by the gains those parties are projected to make tonight.

In Germany, where the Greens are in the national government, big losses had already been forecast. Polls from earlier this year suggest they will also shed seats in France and Italy. Green politicians say they beat the polls in 2019 and intend to do so again tonight.

But the political landscape has shifted dramatically since the last elections, when school strikers like Greta Thunberg took to the streets and pushed climate change into the forefront of people’s minds. The protests that helped secure cross-party support for the Green Deal five years ago have shrunk in size and number, while furious farmers’ protests railing against policies to protect nature have cropped up. In the months ahead of the elections, European leaders ditched several climate measures in response.

Political scientists see little evidence of a societal backlash to the Green Deal - though they have seen local opposition to specific climate policies push voters away from the Greens. A more likely explanation for the projected losses, they say, is that other issues have grown more important. Economic troubles may make people less likely to consider the environment when casting a vote - regardless of whether they themselves struggle to pay for green measures.

Updated

Turnout in Hungary stood at 50.69% by 5pm – compared to only 37.06% in 2019.

This massive turnout comes after an intense campaign that has taken on symbolic meaning and which some voters see as a referendum on the country’s controversial prime minister, Viktor Orbán, and on his new opponent, Péter Magyar.

There’s more to today’s turnout figures in Spain than meets the eye.

Although turnout here by 6pm was at 38.3% - down from 49.4% at the same time during the 2019 European election, those elections coincided with regional and municipal elections, which pushed the overall turnout up.

Perhaps a more useful comparison is the 2014 European elections, where turnout at 6pm was at 33.8%. So, if we take the 2014 elections as the benchmark, turnout this time round is up almost five points.

CDU general secretary Carsten Linnemann said the SPD’s drubbing meant that Olaf Scholz’s government should either fundamentally change course or call new elections.

Linnemann said on public television that the chancellor, who had featured prominently in his party’s European election campaign, must “ask himself if he is really making policy for people here. Otherwise he has got to clear the way, for example with a no-confidence vote”.

Ann-Katrin Müller, who covers the AfD for Der Spiegel magazine, said on X that the far right’s strong result should signal to mainstream parties that their strategy to stop its rise is not working:

“In light of the result can we stop talking about protest voters whom we can win back if we accommodate them on issues or rhetoric, and instead start talking about what really helps against a lurch to the right?”


Antonie Rietzschel, a reporter for the Leipziger Volkszeitung in the state of Saxony, where the AfD is expected to perform well in a pivotal election in September, said the controversies ahead of Sunday’s vote failed to throw the party off course.

“Not really surprising: neither spying nor bribery scandals hurt #AFD. It has loyal voters who are spurred on by the narrative they are politically persecuted and with their vote are becoming something like resistance fighters,” she posted on X.

Estimate for Cyprus

And here’s the estimate for Cyprus:

Democratic Rally: 23.8%

Progressive Party of Working People: 23.1%

Fidias: 14.70%

What do the German exit polls mean for the country's political landscape?

The drubbing in the polls for Germany’s Social Democrats, comes almost two and a half years since Olaf Scholz, the chancellor and SPD chief, took the reins of the government in Berlin.

But the party’s performance in the European election today, according to exit polls, indicates that voters have signalled their disgruntlement with the party, effectively hanging it up to dry.

The SPD has emerged with a miserable 14%, meaning that it received only every third vote, compared to over half of German votes - 52% or 12 points more - at the federal elections of 2021.

The result puts the party behind the far-right AfD, and decidedly behind the Conservative CDU/CSU alliance, which has secured more than double the votes of the SPD, with 29.5%, making it the clear winner of the night.

The Greens have scraped just 12 per cent, a massive 8.5% drop from the 2021 poll.

The pro-business FDP, alongside the SPD and Greens, part of the coalition government under Scholz, has been delivered a humiliating result, of 5%, less than half of its federal election result of 11.5, but more or less on par with its last European election result in 2019.

The AfD success will be a blow to those who thought that having been saddled with scandal after scandal in recent months - over its close relationship with Russia, involvement in incidents of Chinese espionage, accusations of bribery and a ban on its main candidate Maximilian Krah even standing, after he gave an interview to an Italian paper in which he appeared to belittle the crimes of the SS, the elite guard of the Nazi regime - the party would suffer in the polls.

The opposite appears to be the case, with the far-right party delivered around 16.5%, according to exit polls, significantly more than at the 2019 or 2021 polls.

The third clear German victor of the night is Sahra Wagenknecht, who, with her new BSW alliance, achieved 5.5%, according to the exit polls, meaning the party will be represented in the EU parliament.

Meanwhile the far-left Die Linke, to which she had previously belonged, but which she almost sank with her departure, taking several of its MPs with her, have secured less than 3%, a humiliating blow.

In a German parliamentary election, less than 5% would mean the party would no longer be represented. In the European parliament this threshold doesn’t exist. But the result does not bode well for the party’s future.

Estimate for the Netherlands published

An estimate has been published for the Netherlands.

Labour/Green Left alliance (PvdA/GL): 21.6%

Geert Wilders’ far-right Freedom party (PVV): 17.7%

People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD): 11.6%

Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA): 9.7%

D66: 8.1%

BBB: 5.3%

Updated

Estimate for Greece puts New Democracy in lead

Here’s the estimate for Greece, where New Democracy, the party of the prime minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, is in the lead.

New Democracy: 30%

Syriza: 16.7%

PASOK: 12.4%

Updated

Estimate for Austria shows far-right in lead

An estimate for Austria has been published.

The far-right Freedom party (FPÖ): 27%

Austrian People’s party: 23.50%

Social Democratic party: 23%

Greens: 10.5%

NEOS: 10.5%

Updated

Exit polls from Germany, where voting booths closed at 6pm local time, show that the conservative CDU/CSU alliance has come out a clear victor, with 29.5-30% of the vote, giving them a decisive lead ahead of other parties.

The Greens look to have had a miserable performance by contrast, emerging with just 12-12.5 per cent of the vote, compared to 20.5 per cent in 2019, when they had the second strongest result.

The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has made very clear gains, with initial poll results showing that they are on track to secure 16-16.5%, compared to 11 per cent five years ago. This would put them ahead of the Social Democrats (SPD), who are currently estimated to have polled 14%, even worse than their historically-speaking poor result of 2019.

The European elections are the first polling test for Sahra Wagenknecht’s fledgling BSW party, and from this standing start have managed to secure 5.5-6 %, putting it on a level with the pro-business FDP.

In short, all three parties in Olaf Scholz’s coalition in Germany’s federal government, appear to have taken a bashing from voters.

Updated

National estimates just in from Germany indicate that the Greens have slumped in the polls, the far-right AfD is fighting for second place, while the Christian Democrats look likely to be the clear victor in the European parliament election.

Updated

CDU in lead in Germany, AfD in second place at 16.5%: exit poll

An exit poll has been published for Germany, Reuters reports.

The poll shows significant gains for the far-right.

Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU): 29.5%

Alternative for Germany (AfD): 16.5%

Social Democratic party (SPD): 14%

Greens: 12%

Free Democrats: 5%

How does this compare to 2019?

In 2019, the CDU was at 28.9%, the SPD at 15.8% and AfD at only 11%.

Updated

As we wait for national estimates, here’s a bit of background on the political landscape in Austria.

Austrians vote to elect 20 members of the European parliament.

The far-right Freedom party was leading in opinion polls with around 29%.

It was followed by the Social Democratic party with about 22% and the Austrian People’s party with approximately 20%. NEOS is was at about 10%.

Key event

We’re now waiting for estimates for Austria, Cyprus, Germany, Greece, Malta, the Netherlands. Stay tuned.

5. Slovakia

Another key race to keep an eye on is in Slovakia.

Slovakia’s prime minister, Robert Fico, was shot and seriously injured in May, in the most serious incident of violence against a head of government in Europe in decades.

The populist leader and his Smer party have come under scrutiny over the past months for moves critics say undermine media freedom and checks and balances. Fico’s rhetoric on foreign policy has also raised concerns that Bratislava is adopting a more Kremlin-friendly approach.

“It is necessary to vote for MEPs who will support peace initiatives and not the continuation of war,” Fico said in a social media post on Saturday as he voted at a Bratislava hospital.

The latest polls put Fico’s Smer slightly ahead of the opposition Progressive Slovakia, which is running on a pro-western platform.

4. Germany

In Germany, the performance of the far-right Alternative for Germany will be closely watched.

The AfD has been embroiled in a series of scandals over the past months, and was expelled from the far-right Identity and Democracy group in the European parliament, which brings together far-right such as France’s National Rally and Belgium’s Vlaams Belang.

The latest polls put the centre-right Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) at 30%, the Greens at 15%, the Social Democratic party (SPD) at 15% and the AfD at 14%.

Read more:

‘They call us Nazis’: inside the wealthy German town where the far right is on the rise

3. Spain

In Spain, the right has sought to turn the European election into a referendum on the socialist prime minister, Pedro Sánchez.

“Let’s not put off until the general election what we can start doing in the European elections. Let’s start the change from Europe,” said the conservative People’s party leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo.

Ahead of the vote, public attention has focused on a saga embroiling the prime minister’s wife, Begoña Gómez, who is being investigated over allegations of corruption and influence-peddling, which Sánchez has dismissed as politically-motivated and totally baseless.

However, his opponents have used the allegations to ramp up pressure on Sánchez, whom they accuse of being self-serving, hypocritical and hellbent on retaining power.

In the aftermath of last year’s inconclusive general election, Sánchez managed to secure another term by performing a u-turn and promising Catalan pro-independence parties a controversial and divisive amnesty law in return for their support in returning him to office.

For Europe, political developments in Madrid are especially significant because Sánchez is one of the continent’s few socialist heads of government.

Portugal’s socialist prime minister, António Costa, resigned last November after an investigation was launched into alleged illegalities in his administration’s handling of large green investment projects. Portugal is now governed by the centre-right Democratic Alliance, which finished first in March’s snap general election.

Read more:

Spanish PM hits out at rivals after wife summoned over corruption allegations

2. Hungary

Another key race to watch is in Hungary.

While Viktor Orbán’s ruling Fidesz party is expected to garner the most votes in Hungary, the election being closely watched due to the rapid rise of Péter Magyar, a former government insider who recently launched an opposition movement.

Magyar has campaigned on an anti-corruption platform aimed at restoring democratic institutions. The prime minister has campaigned claiming a third world war could be imminent and presenting his party as the only political force that can preserve “peace” in Hungary.

The outcome of today’s voting is set to shape Hungary’s political landscape ahead of a national election in 2026.

Read more:

Hungarians rally for former ally leading the charge against Viktor Orbán’s rule

5 races to watch

While the EU elections involve 27 races, some are being watched particularly closely due to their possible impact on the political landscape both nationally and in Brussels.

Here are five races worth keeping an eye on:

1. France

The far-right National Rally, with its 28-year old lead candidate Jordan Bardella, is expected to get the most votes. The list led by Emmanuel Macron’s ally Valérie Hayer is trailing behind.

A Le Monde poll ahead of the election put National Rally at 33%, with Macron’s governing coalition at 16% and the Socialists together with Place Publique at 14.5%.

The results of today’s vote will set the stage for the 2027 presidential election campaign in France and could have a significant impact on public discussions around the rise of the far-right in Europe.

Read more:

‘You can feel a shift’: will the French be lured by Le Pen?

‘A paradigm shift’: will Jordan Bardella finally normalise Le Pen’s far right?

Good evening from the European parliament in Brussels!

I will be here with colleagues Jennifer Rankin and Lisa O’Carroll this evening, as we will report on election results and reactions. We will also be sharing reporting here from our colleagues across the continent.

At 6:15pm CET, we are expecting the first national estimates: for Austria, Cyprus, Germany, Greece, and Netherlands and Malta.

This will be followed by estimates for Bulgaria and Croatia at 7:15pm CET.

At 8:15pm, we expect estimates from Denmark, France and Spain.

At 9:15 pm, we expect national estimates for Poland, Portugal, Romania and Sweden.

What are national estimates? This will be data provided by Verian for the European parliament based on available exit polls, estimations or similar non-official data published in member states.

Results will follow later. We will keep you updated on both estimates and results as they come in.

Updated

With polls suggesting support for far-right and nationalist parties will surge in the European elections, campaigners are bracing for a political landscape that they fear could further stigmatise marginalised communities – and result in fewer MEPs of colour in parliament.

Campaigners have long warned that the European parliament is profoundly out of step with the demographic reality of Europe. While racialised minorities make up an estimated 10% of the EU’s population, MEPs from these groups accounted for just 4.3% of the total lawmakers in the last mandate, according to analysis by the European Network Against Racism.

The wide gap was exacerbated by Brexit, with the departure of the UK MEPs in 2020 sending the proportion of racialised minorities in the European parliament tumbling to 3.5% – just 25 of 705 MEPs, according to a 2020 analysis.

Ahead of a vote that is expected to see even fewer Black, Asian and minority ethnic MEPs elected, I spoke with several MEPs about their experiences of working in a parliament that was described by one MEP as “very much pale and male”:

With exit polls expected to start rolling in soon, here's where things stand so far:

  • Today will see 21 countries in Europe go to the polls, including Italy which runs its ballot over two days. Among the countries voting today are the EU’s other big three economies: Spain, Germany and France.

  • Results of the European parliamentary elections won’t start to pour in until after 11pm CET when the last polls close in Italy. The big reveal will be between 11:15pm and 11:30pm, when we will get provisional results for 24 countries – all but Poland, Italy and Belgium.

  • But exit polls for Germany will be published at around 6:15pm CET, giving Europe the first indication of whether the expected surge for the far right materialises.

  • Turnout in Hungary was 33.14 at 1pm, according to the national election office. That’s up nearly 10 points from turnout at the same time in 2019, which stood at 24.01%, in an election that has pitted Hungary’s populist prime minister, Viktor Orbán, against newcomer Tisza, led by former government insider Péter Magyar.

  • Voter turnout in France was 45.26% at 5pm, according to the country’s interior ministry. This was an increase from the same period in 2019, when it was 43.29%. The slight bump in turnout comes as the French president, Emmanuel Macron, is polling far behind Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally.

  • Austria’s far-right Freedom Party is the likely winner of the European parliament election, Reuters reports, citing a polling-based “trend forecast” that was carried out for Austrian broadcasters and a news agency and which was published when polling stations closed on Sunday.

  • In the southwest German city of Karlsruhe, two members of the far-right AfD party were reportedly attacked on Saturday by a masked gang with baseball bats. Three people suffered “light injuries” according to authorities, who said five people had been arrested. The attack is the latest in a string of incidents involving violence against German politicians in the lead up to the European elections.

Poll-based trend forecast says Austria's far right wins EU vote - Reuters

Austria’s far-right Freedom Party is the likely winner of the European parliament election, Reuters reports, citing a polling-based “trend forecast” that was carried out for Austrian broadcasters and a news agency and which was published when polling stations closed on Sunday.

The forecast, based on surveys of 3,600 people carried out in the past week for national broadcaster ORF, Puls 24 TV and APA showed the Freedom Party (FPO) in first place on 27.0% followed by the conservative People’s Party (OVP) on 23.5% and the Social Democrats (SPO) on 23.0%.

Voter turnout up by 2 points in France

Voter turnout in France was 45.26% at 5pm, according to the country’s interior ministry. This was an increase from the same period in 2019, when it was 43.29%.

The slight bump in turnout comes as the French president, Emmanuel Macron, is polling far behind Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally.

The National Rally’s high score in European elections is not new, writes the Guardian’s Angelique Chrisafis. From the mid-1980s, it has traditionally done well in European votes and topped the poll in France in the last two European elections, in 2014 and in 2019.

One major difference this time is that the rise of other far-right parties across the EU can give the French equivalent more international clout. A second is that National Rally’s lead against Macron’s group is expected to be big – potentially more than 10% – whereas last time it was less than 1%. This would show not just that the far right has grown, but that Macron’s support has considerably fallen.

Chrisafis recently followed Jordan Bardella, the president of Le Pen’s National Rally, on the campaign trail, exploring whether the young politician hailed as the new face of the French far right could lead the party’s European election campaign to unprecedented heights:

Europe’s Green parties are expected to see a slump in support in the European parliament elections, with polls suggesting that they could lose as many as a third of their seats.

The Guardian’s Europe environment correspondent, Ajit Niranjan, has looked into what’s behind this shift, which could see a rollback of climate policies with the effects rippling far beyond the continent:

The most recent winner of Drag Race España, Pitita Queen, is among the many across Spain who have been called to supervise a polling station.

Under Spanish law, the country’s polling stations must be overseen by registered voters who are chosen through a lottery system. Those who fail to show up face fines or even jail time.

On Sunday Pitita Queen explained that after overseeing a polling station in Barcelona, she had to head directly to a performance. “That’s why I had to come dressed,” she wrote on social media. “I was an alternate but fate wanted me to spend the day here fulfilling my obligations as a citizen.”

Updated

Here’s a few of the millions of people across Europe who are heading to polls today

A powerful European parliament campaign video urging people to vote has been viewed more than half a billion times.

The video shows elderly Europeans, including survivors of the Holocaust, addressing their grandchildren, under the slogan: “Use your vote or others will decide for you.”

The campaign, which recalls the Nazi occupation, the Holocaust and the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia, has aired on social media, TV, cinemas and football stadiums in recent weeks.

Turnout in Hungary climbs nearly 10 points over 2019

Turnout in Hungary has been very high. By 1pm today, 33.14% of eligible voters had cast their ballots, according to the national election office.

In 2019, 24.01% had voted by that time.

The election has pitted Hungary’s populist prime minister, Viktor Orbán, against newcomer Tisza, led by former government insider Péter Magyar. Many see the elections as a de facto referendum on both Orbán and the opposition parties that have struggled to challenge him over the past years.

Orbán, who is the EU’s most Kremlin-friendly leader, has focused his election campaign on what he has described as a “peace” platform.

Ahead of the elections, his ruling Fidesz party has run an intense disinformation campaign claiming – without providing proof – that there is a global conspiracy to force Hungary into a direct war with Russia and that Hungary’s opposition is being directed by the west to undermine the national interest.

As 21 countries are called to the polls today, experts remain on high alert for a tsunami of disinformation.

In its daily alert, the European Digital Media Observatory (EDMO) highlighted a hoax circulating in Germany that claims the EU will impose an €80 per month “Ukrainian solidarity tax” on earners starting in August.

It is “an attempt to undermine support for Ukraine and at the same time push negative sentiment toward EU institutions, portraying it as imposing unfair measures on EU citizens,” said the EDMO.

Both the European Commission and Germany’s Federal Ministry of Finance confirmed there were no such plans.

Migration continues to be another target for disinformation with false claims in Spain that the Socialist party in Brussels, where elections are being held today, only represents Muslim communities.

On Sunday EFE Verifica, reported that about 20% of false claims about migrants in the EU “aimed to criminalise them”, depicting them as violent or perpetrators of crimes.

They used Election24 Check, the first database of fact-checked information for European countries, to analyse 106 false claims in recent weeks.

Summary of the day so far

  • In the first European election since Britain left the EU, voters are being asked to elect 720 lawmakers to the world’s only directly elected transnational parliament.

  • This year’s ballot is being closely watched as opinion polls forecast significant gains for far-right and anti-establishment parties, which would have far-reaching consequences for the EU’s policy agenda.

  • Today will see 21 countries in Europe go to the polls, including Italy which runs its ballot over two days. Among the countries voting today are the EU’s other big three economies: Spain, Germany and France.

  • Results of the European parliamentary elections won’t start to pour in until after 11pm CET when the last polls close in Italy. The big reveal will be between 11:15pm and 11:30pm, when we will get provisional results for 24 countries – all but Poland, Italy and Belgium.

  • But exit polls for Germany will be published at around 6:15pm CET, giving Europe the first indication of whether the expected surge for the far right materialises.

  • Turnout in Hungary was 22.89% at 11am, according to the national election office. That’s up more than 5 points from turnout at the same time in 2019, which stood at 17.16%.

  • In the southwest German city of Karlsruhe, two members of the far-right AfD party were reportedly attacked on Saturday by a masked gang with baseball bats. Three people suffered “light injuries” according to authorities, who said five people had been arrested. The attack is the latest in a string of incidents involving violence against German politicians in the lead up to the European elections.

Turnout in Italy was at 25% by around midday and at a booth in Rome, there was a steady flow of people determined to cast their ballots.

Tiziana Capone recalled that just over 78 years had passed since Italian women won the right to vote,

“It’s a duty to use that right,” she said. “We have to vote, because it’s important for us all that Europe is united and I hope it becomes more united and stronger,” she added. Capone, who describes herself as a “non-ideological” centrist voter, said she believes the Italian prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, whose party has neofascist roots, is “doing her best. And at least she can speak English ...none of the others can.”

Alberta, 40, disagrees. She said she comes from a family of fascists, and recalls her grandfather speaking with admiration about dictator Benito Mussolini. “I think this government is showing similar risks...people are duped into believing they are doing good things, but I have no faith in it or Meloni whatsoever. This is why it’s important to vote today, we have to try to stop this rise.”

Gianni, 55, said: “We’re facing very complicated challenges around the world – the war in Ukraine, in Gaza and then climate change ... and I fear it will get worse if the far-right parties get too strong. We have to try to prevent this.”

Among those who have called on people to vote in the European elections is a group of Holocaust survivors.

Earlier this month they issued a joint appeal calling on younger voters to go to the polls and exercise their right.

“For millions of you, the European poll is the first election in your life. For many of us it could be the last,” the eight survivors wrote in the letter. “We couldn’t prevent [the rise of nazism] back then, but you can today.”

They added:

“When the right-wing extremists came to power the last time, we were still teenagers, some of us even children. They promised to make this country great again. They promised that Germans would come first.

And they found scapegoats for everything that didn’t work: the Jews, the Sinti and Roma, the homosexuals, the people with disabilities, the committed democrats. Step by step, millions of people were stripped of their rights, finally even their right to live.”

Many across Europe are keeping a close eye on Italy, where the prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, is being increasingly seen as the potential kingmaker of European politics.

Italy, which will hold 76 of the 720 seats in the new parliament, could play a crucial role deciding the balance of power in the bloc. With polls suggesting Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party could gain up to 27% of the vote – up from just 6.4% in the 2019 EU elections – Italy’s prime minister could decide the political fate of the European Commission chief, Ursula von der Leyen, and whether she receives sufficient backing to secure a second term.

The Guardian’s Clea Skopeliti has delved into the outsized role that Italy may end up playing once the results are in:

Reporters for news agency Agence France-Presse have been speaking to people across the continent about why they are voting today.

In Berlin, 52-year-old Tanja Reith said:

“In the current world situation, where everyone is trying to isolate each other, it’s important to keep standing up for peace and democracy.”

In Stockholm a male voter in his 70s said his primary concern was immigration. With global warming, “it’s too hot to live there so they want to go where the climate is not so hard,” he said, declining to give his name.

Hungarian voter Ferenc Hamori, 54, said he wanted to see more EU leaders like Hungary’s populist prime minister, Viktor Orbán - even though he expected Orbán to remain “outnumbered in Brussels”.

In Budapest, however, one voter hinted at a pushback against populism. “I think the public sentiment has changed; people who have been burying their heads in the sand are now standing up and coming forward,” said voter Dorottya Wolf.

In EU countries closest to Russia, the spectre of Russia’s threat loomed large. “I would like to see greater security,” doctor Andrzej Zmiejewski, 51, told the news agency in Warsaw.

In Romania’s capital Bucharest, psychologist Teodora Maia said she cast her vote “on the theme of war, which worries us all, and ecology”.

Emmanuel Macron was expected to vote in the northern seaside resort of Le Touquet on Sunday, before returning to Paris for the results.

In Paris, officials at several voting centres reported higher than usual turnout on Sunday morning. By midday, the turnout in the French capital was 16%, according to local authorities, compared to 11.35% for the same period in 2019. Nationwide, the turn-out by midday was slightly higher than for the same period in 2019.

A key question in France will be how Macron’s centrists react if they lag far behind Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally.

Polls in recent weeks estimated the far-right’s Jordan Bardella at around 33%, double the predicted score of Macron’s lead candidate, Valérie Hayer, at around 16%. Le Pen’s far-right has topped the vote twice before in the last two European elections, in 2014 and 2019, but with a much smaller margin. This time, analysts will be assessing the size of the gap between the two parties.

Some centrists in Macron’s camp have stressed that it is very rare in France for the party of a serving president to come first in the European elections – one exception in recent decades was Nicolas Sarkozy’s right-wing UMP party coming top in 2009.

Analysts are also watching scores on the left – the MEP Raphaël Glucksmann, standing for Place Publique and the Socialist party, had slowly risen in polls to potentially rival Hayer’s position. Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise party, with a list headed by the MEP Manon Aubry, had been polling at 8%, but said they expected a last-minute boost to a higher score. The Green list, led by the MEP, Marie Toussaint, was polling at around 5%, far lower than in 2019.

When will we start to get results?

Results of the European parliamentary elections won’t start to pour in until after 11pm CET when the last polls close in Italy.

The big reveal will be between 11:15pm and 11:30pm, when we will get provisional results for 24 countries – all but Poland, Italy and Belgium.

But exit polls for Germany will be published at around 6:15pm CET, giving Europe the first indication of whether the expected surge for the far right materialises.

Five other countries are in the first wave of exit polls: Austria, Cyprus, Greece, Malta and the Netherlands. An hour later we will get results from Bulgaria and Croatia.

Exit polls or other national estimates for France, where a big win is expected for Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, will come in between 8:15pm and 8:45pm CET, when the same will be available for Denmark and Spain.

Poland, Romania and Sweden follow after 9:15pm CET.

Updated

Spain’s socialist prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has cast his vote and called for a huge turnout.

“Let’s all decide between us what kind of future we want for Europe,” he told reporters on Sunday morning.

“It’s worth remembering that the response to the [2008] financial crisis, the social response to the pandemic, the responses to the different economic crises triggered by the war in Ukraine and the war in the Middle East all came from the same capital - which is Brussels.”

He continued: “And that’s why our votes will decide whether the kind of future we have in Europe and in Spain is a future that advances or a future that goes backwards. Do we want a Europe that continues to come together in solidarity to face the challenges ahead, or do we choose a reactionary Europe of cuts and of regression and reaction?”

Sánchez’s opponents, however, have sought to make the vote a referendum on the prime minister’s administration and his style of government. They accuse him of cynicism, hypocrisy and of weakness for offering Catalan separatists a deeply divisive amnesty law in return for helping him back to power after last year’s inconclusive general election.

In recent weeks, the conservative People’s party (PP) and the far-right Vox party have also seized on the fact that Sánchez’s wife, Begoña Gómez, is being investigated by a judge over allegations of influence-peddling and corruption to suggest that he is unfit for office.

On Wednesday Sánchez again accused his political opponents of trying to undermine his government and influence the outcome of these elections after a judge investigating the corruption allegations against his wife summoned her to testify five days before polls opened.

The complaint against Gómez was filed by the pressure group Manos Limpias (Clean Hands), a self-styled trade union with far-right links that has a long history of using the courts to pursue political targets.

Although prosecutors in Madrid have asked the court to throw out the case for lack of evidence – and a report by the Guardia Civil police force found no indication of criminal activity by Gómez – the investigation is proceeding.

“There is nothing behind this accusation, just an ugly fit-up driven by the far-right groups behind the complaint,” the prime minister said on Wednesday.

Sánchez, who has always maintained his wife’s innocence, added that his political opponents were “trying to use illegitimate methods to achieve what they didn’t manage to do at the polls”.

Speaking after he voted at 11am, the PP leader, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, also urged “massive participation” in the elections.

“I urge all Spaniards to go to the ballot boxes optimistically, ambitiously and responsibly to respond to the situation in our country and to [decide] what they want Europe and this great country to be … We’ll keep on working to defend democracy in our country. Today … each of us has the chance to respond to the political situation that Spain’s experiencing, and to [decide] what we want the future of Europe to be.”

Vox’s candidate, Jorge Buxadé, joined other politicians in urging people to get out and vote. He also accused Sánchez of attempting to incite “political violence against what he calls the far right”.

“Spain needs a change of direction and Europe needs a change of direction,” he said. “In short, those who think things in Europe are going perfectly should carry on voting for the parties they always have. Those who think Europe needs a change of direction and that there’s a different way of doing much better in Brussels have only one option - which is Vox.”

Turnout increases by more than 5 points in Hungary

Turnout in Hungary was 22.89% at 11am, according to the national election office. That’s up more than 5 points from turnout at the same time in 2019, which stood at 17.16%.

The bump in turnout comes as Hungary’s populist prime minister, Viktor Orbán, faces off against newcomer Tisza, a new party led by former government insider Péter Magyar.

Magyar has positioned himself as a centrist and is aiming to challenge the ruling Fidesz party’s dominant position in Hungarian politics. “We are building a country where there is no right, no left – only Hungarian,” he declared at a rally in the capital yesterday.

Fidesz enjoys the support of 50% of decided voters, according to a study published Friday by pollster Medián. Magyar’s Tisza party, meanwhile, stood at 27%.

This year’s European parliament elections are the first to take place since Britain left the EU.

Reader Patricia Borlenghi has been in touch to share the details of what she described as a “historic moment” for her.

She writes:

After the disastrous Brexit I took out Italian citizenship. As I happen to be in Italy, happily I was able to vote today - for the first time in my life!

Firstly for the local mayor and secondly for the PD (partito democrático) in the European elections.”

In fact I have a ghastly cold but I was determined to go out to vote at the school (which is) a 20-minute drive away from where I live in my maternal grandmother’s village. My Brit husband, who can’t vote here, drove me there.”

She enclosed a photo of her tessera elettorale or voting card:

In France, voter turnout at midday was 19.81%, according to the country’s interior ministry.

It’s a slight increase for the same period at the last European election in 2019, when it was 19.26%.

Millions head to the polls in final day of European parliament elections

Today sees voters in most EU member states, including France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Poland, called to the polls.

It’s the final day of a four-day election cycle that began in the Netherlands on Thursday, offering voters the chance to elect more than 700 members of the European parliament, the world’s only directly elected transnational assembly.

The Guardian’s Jon Henley has this guide to the elections:

Tens of thousands of people took to several German cities on Saturday to protest against rightwing extremism.

‘Herz statt Hetze’ (which loosely translates as ‘love instead of rabble-rousing’), ‘Vielfalt ohne Alternative’ (‘Diversity without the Alternatives (AfD)‘), and ‘Menschen Rechte statt Rechte Menschen’ (Human rights, rather than right-wing humans’) were among the banners spotted among participants.

The gatherings were called by the umbrella organisation which brought together a wide-range of civil society groups, under the motto: ‘Stop right-wing extremism’, in Berlin, Dresden, Munich, Leipzig, Chemnitz and other locations.

An estimated 30,000 people took part in a separate demonstration in Hamburg on Saturday evening.

In Leipzig, home of the German Oscar-nominated actress Sandra Hüller, she addressed the crowds, urging them to vote.

“I usually try to remain a bit invisible when I’m not working,” she said. “But today is different. Today there are no excuses anymore.... I am a European.”

She appealed to people “not to let yourselves be contaminated by the raw tone of the right, by the imprecision and the violence in their language, which has just one goal: to destabilise and divide”. She said despite the far-right’s claim to the contrary, “there are no simple solutions”.

“Democracy, co-determination, and co-decision-making, this is strenuous. Thinking is strenuous,” she added, urging people to take their friends and family with them to the polling stations.

In France, the big question is whether people will turn to the far-right, anti-immigration party of Marine Le Pen.

The French president, Emmanuel Macron, is polling far behind Le Pen’s National Rally, which is expected to repeat its feat of topping the poll with an even bigger lead than in 2019 or 2014. The weakness of Macron’s party could see the centrist Renew group – dominated by French MEPs – lose its traditional third place in the European parliament.

The Guardian’s Angelique Chrisafis has this dispatch from Boulogne-Billancourt, a wealthy commune west of Paris.

Ursula von der Leyen, who is seeking a second five-year term as head of the European Commission, has cast her vote and is urging others to do the same.

Much is at stake for the German centre-right politician, as the European parliament, which sits in Brussels and Strasbourg, will also have the final say on whether she gets a coveted second-term as European Commission president, one of the most powerful positions in European politics.

In the southwest German city of Karlsruhe, two members of the far-right AfD party were reportedly attacked on Saturday by a masked gang bearing baseball bats in front of a cafe. Three people suffered “light injuries” according to authorities, who said on Sunday that five people had been arrested following the attack.

In Germany, alongside the European parliamentary elections, 100,000 local and district elections are also taking place in several states.

The Karlsruhe attack is the latest in a string of incidents involving violence against German politicians in the lead up to the European elections.

In the city of Dresden on Saturday, an MP from the AfD in the state parliament was attacked by a man, while in the state of Schleswig Holstein at an election rally held by the Social Democrats, a firework thrown from the sidelines narrowly missed the MP Bengt Berndt. A politician for the far-left Die Linke was also attacked in a supermarket in the state of Thuringia and verbally abused.

There have been calls for more protection for politicians and tougher sentences for those who attack them, following these and numerous other incidents including the stabbing of AfD party candidate Heinrich Koch in the south-west city of Mannheim. The stabbing took place less than a week after a 29 year old policeman was stabbed to death by a 25 year old Afghan man who appears to have aimed his attack at an anti-Islam group called Pax Europa. The policeman died when he intervened to stop the attacker.

Last month the German interior minister, Nancy Faeser, vowed to fight a surge in violence against politicians following an attack on Matthias Ecke, a member of the European parliament for the SPD, who was hospitalised after being attacked while he was campaigning.

Earlier a 28 year old putting up posters for the Greens was also injured in an attack. Former Berlin mayor Franziska Giffey, was attacked in May at an event at a Berlin library by a man who approached her from behind and hit her with a bag containing an unidentified hard object.

My colleague Lisa O’Carroll is in Brussels, where some have gone all out for the country’s triple elections:

Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, has sought to stress the importance of these elections, painting a stark picture of what he believes is at stake.

He told reporters:

It’s our vote that decides if the future we’re building in Europe and, consequently also in Spain, is a future of progress or a future of regression.

It decides if we want a Europe that continues to persist in united response to the challenges and crises that lie ahead, or if we opt for a reactionary Europe; one of cutbacks, of regression, of reaction.

That’s why I believe it is important – with our vote we decide whether we want a Europe that moves forward or a Europe that moves backwards.”

Up to 450 million citizens across the EU are being called to go to the polls in these elections – a figure that in some countries includes 16-year-olds.

This time around there has been an expansion in youth voting, with Belgium and Germany joining Austria and Malta in giving 16-year-olds the vote.

The Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, appears to be nudging people to go and vote, writing on X: “Bad politicians are elected by good citizens who stay home.”

At 6:30am, the halls of a school in central Budapest were quiet.

Seven people sat at a long table as I walked into the room designated for my voting district.

After they checked my name in a booklet with a list of eligible voters, I signed and got five pieces of paper: one ballot paper for the European parliament election and four for local elections, including the mayor of Budapest.

In the European race, all eyes are on Tisza, a new party led by former government insider Péter Magyar.

Magyar has positioned himself as a centrist and is aiming to challenge the ruling Fidesz party’s dominant position in Hungarian politics. “We are building a country where there is no right, no left – only Hungarian,” he declared at a rally in the capital yesterday.

Fidesz, led by Hungary’s populist prime minister, Viktor Orbán, enjoys the support of 50% of decided voters, according to a study published Friday by pollster Medián. Magyar’s Tisza party, meanwhile, stood at 27%.

The prime minister, who is the EU’s most Kremlin-friendly leader, has focused his election campaign on what he has described as a “peace” platform.

The ruling party has run an intense campaign claiming – without providing proof – that there is a global conspiracy to force Hungary into a direct war with Russia and that Hungary’s opposition is being directed by the west.

On the ballot paper for mayor of Budapest, one name was crossed out: Alexandra Szentkirályi, the candidate for the ruling Fidesz party, who pulled out of the race on Friday and endorsed another candidate, Dávid Vitézy.

Vitézy is challenging Gergely Karácsony, the incumbent, who is supported by multiple opposition parties.

Along with European parliament elections, Belgium is also holding a general election and regional ballots today.

But it is the national vote – which is expected to see a surge in support for a far-right party that wants to break up the country – that is dominating discourse in Belgium.

Polls suggest that the right will rise in Flanders and the left in primarily French-speaking Wallonia, suggesting a potentially fiendishly complicated coalition negotiation in the weeks and months to come.

My colleague Lisa O’Carroll has this dispatch from Brussels:

In the first European election since Britain left the EU, voters are being asked to elect 720 lawmakers to the world’s only directly elected transnational parliament.

This year’s ballot is being closely watched as opinion polls forecast significant gains for far-right and anti-establishment parties, which would have far-reaching consequences for the EU’s policy agenda.

My colleague Jennifer Rankin in Brussels has put together this primer on the elections:

Millions across Europe expected to vote in final day of European parliament elections

Good morning. It’s super Sunday – today 21 countries in Europe go to the polls, including Italy which runs its ballot over two days.

Among the 21 countries voting today are the EU’s other big three economies: Spain, Germany and France.

We’ll be following the action all day and late into the night, with a fairly definitive picture of the parliament expected to emerge around 1am on Monday CET (midnight BST). Predicted results are expected to appear earlier in the evening.

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