Now 27 years old, Utah Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen was an All-Star and the NBA’s Most Improved Player in 2023.
Yet, the Jazz (31-51) are still mired in a rebuilding scenario with one of the worst records in the Western Conference, and Markkanen’s contract expires after the upcoming 2024-25 season.
So, there is at least a case to be made that the Jazz may explore trading Markkanen for younger players — as opposed to investing heavily in Markkanen’s prime years for a team that isn’t likely to compete at a high level, no matter what. As a small-market team, Utah has never been a significant draw for veteran free agents or trade targets, which could prompt the Jazz to rely more heavily on the draft and a longer-term development cycle with younger prospects.
And if the Jazz don’t extend him, his trade value could decline as the months tick closer to his unrestricted free agency in 2025. Losing a star for reduced compensation would be sub-optimal for a team that doesn’t have ambitions of winning big next season, regardless.
So, given those dynamics, many around the NBA have suspected the Jazz could explore Markkanen trades prior to the start of the 2024-25 season in October. The Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs have long been rumored as potential suitors, but in a recent podcast, ESPN’s Zach Lowe floated the Rockets as another option.
Among Lowe’s comments (hat tip, Chris Gorman):
Let’s start with Markkanen. He would fit anywhere. We know the Warriors would be happy to get him at the right price. That would change, theoretically, the landscape of the Western Conference.
I’ve mentioned the Spurs as a possibility. The Rockets have been mentioned, just because they have a million young players.Houston is a really interesting one for me, because I’ve been of the view that if I’m the Rockets, I just need to let this thing marinate. I’m not rushing I just don’t know enough about my team and how it all fits together, and what all these players can do.
I know Ime Udoka and the coaching staff, they want to win. They want to hit the gas, now, and Markkanen would be a way to hit the gas. They’re clearly an interesting team.
Let's start with Markkanen.he would fit anywhere…Warriors…Spurs…the Rockets have been mentioned…"
-Zach Lowe[@ZachLowe_NBA]👀 👀 👀#Rockets pic.twitter.com/1PXQK8QNev
— Chris Gorman (@GormanChristoph) July 26, 2024
Other than a tidbit about Udoka wanting to win now — which is well established and understandable, particularly after an encouraging 41-41 season in which the Rockets had the NBA’s biggest annual wins increase (19) — Lowe isn’t directly reporting Houston’s interest.
As it pertains to Markkanen, it sounds as if Lowe is citing sources around the league as saying the Rockets could be a fit, since Houston has a deep young core of prospects that might tempt the Jazz.
Yet, Houston has to consider not just the present, but the future. Markkanen plays primarily at power forward, which is where Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason, and Amen Thompson are currently playing minutes. Markkanen is a better player than any of those three today, but is he going to be a better player in two or three years, when the Rockets hope to actually be capable of making a championship push? He also offers much less defensive potential and versatility.
The argument for Markkanen would be that on a Houston team that already has a significant amount of upside bets, the certainty of Markkanen’s production (he averaged 23.2 points and 8.0 rebounds per game last season while shooting 39.9% on 3-pointers) would raise the team’s floor while still maintaining a fairly high ceiling.
If Markkanen could lift the Rockets from a possible playoff team in 2024-25 to a more certain playoff team, there’s also a case to be made that the added playoff exposure could assist in the development of whatever high-ceiling prospects remain on Houston’s roster.
"Houston is an interesting one, because I've been of the view that, if I'm the Rockets, I just need to let this thing marinate. I'm not rushing…."
– Zach Lowe[@ZachLowe_NBA] on Lauri Markkanen trades🎯🎯🎯#Rockets pic.twitter.com/3guVWdC6Bx
— Chris Gorman (@GormanChristoph) July 26, 2024
Beyond basketball components, Houston would also have to explore whether it can come to financial terms with Markkanen on his next contract. After all, it wouldn’t be worth it to pay an asset premium to Utah for a player who may effectively be a short-term rental.
All in all, based on the volume of those questions and the likelihood of other teams being involved in the bidding, it’s inherently less likely than likely for Markkanen to join the Rockets. But, it’s certainly not implausible, which is why Lowe is seemingly keeping the door open.
