With three weeks left in the regular season, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) ran 10,000 simulations from Week 16 through the Super Bowl and it wasn’t very kind to the Indianapolis Colts.
As I’m sure you can guess, there was no playoff push from the Colts, at least in the highlighted scenario in this ESPN article. Of the 10,000 simulations, there were 4,393 unique combinations when it came to playoff teams and seeding–so one would think that there were some instances where the Colts found their way into the postseason.
However, in the scenario chosen by Seth Walder, simulation No. 812 to be exact, he called “chalk,” meaning that the FPI model produced the set of teams and seeding most likely to occur.
For the Colts, in their final three regular-season games, they finish just 1-2. This includes a 24-9 win over the 3-11 Titans. However, they finish out the season with two losses by getting blown out on the road by the Giants, losing 31-14, and then losing at home to the Jaguars 20-9.
While the Colts’ most recent performance against Denver, which included a second-half collapse by the offense, doesn’t exactly inspire confidence going into these remaining games, Indianapolis has taken care of business this season against struggling teams.
Although the Colts are 6-8 on the season, they are 5-1 versus opponents who are below the .500 mark this season. And Indianapolis’ final three opponents, the Titans, Giants, and Jaguars, have a combined record of 8-24.
The Colts’ defense is coming off of one of its best performances of the season, but overall, the team has lacked consistency on both sides of the ball this season and hasn’t been able to strike that complementary balance between the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. When one phase is finding success, the other struggles.
Believe it or not, the Colts’ do still have a path to the playoffs even after last week’s loss, but before worrying about the help they need elsewhere, they have to take care of their own business first.
