Finding someone who’s high on the Rams in 2023 can be difficult right now. There isn’t a lot of confidence in this team at the moment, with many picking the Rams to once again finish below .500.
Even from an analytics and predictive model standpoint, the Rams don’t look great on paper this year. ESPN released its preseason Football Power Index (FPI) rankings, and the Rams were once again low on the list.
Here’s an explanation of what the FPI is based on, from ESPN:
For the uninitiated, the Football Power Index — commonly referred to as the FPI — is our rating and projection model for NFL teams. In the preseason, the model’s predictive ratings are based substantially on win totals from Caesars Sportsbook and strength of schedule, along with factors such as past team performance and returning starters. We use team ratings to simulate the season thousands of times, creating our projections, which update every day during the season. Game predictions are also informed by factors such as travel, rest differential and changes at starting quarterback.
The Rams came in at No. 23 with a rating of -2.4, which is just lower than the Commanders and Saints, both of which the Rams will face in 2023. The Rams only have a 0.5% chance of winning the Super Bowl, according to FPI, and a 24.8% chance to make the playoffs.
They do have decent odds to secure the No. 1 pick, though. According to ESPN’s model, the Rams have a 5% chance to secure the top pick in the draft, which doesn’t seem great but is the fifth-best of any team in the NFL. Their 52% chance at a top-10 pick is also the fifth-best in the NFL.
Obviously, landing the No. 1 pick or even a top-10 selection would mean the Rams were one of the worst teams in the league, which isn’t what they’re trying to be this season. They’re hoping to bounce back from a 5-12 campaign in 2022 by getting back to the playoffs and potentially making some noise in the NFC.
