All of the New Orleans Saints’ hopes hinge on Klint Kubiak getting their offense in shape after Pete Carmichael’s disappointing two-year run in relief of Sean Payton came to an end. Most of the starting lineup is returning from last season, and so are many depth players and established backups. If they’re going to reach the playoffs it’ll mean Kubiak got more out of those players than Carmichael did.
So this model is concerning. As he does every year after the NFL draft, ESPN’s Mike Clay shared individual stat projections for all 32 teams, including the Saints. And if he’s accurate it would mean the New Orleans-Kubiak experiment was a bust. Some modest improvements in the run game aside, Derek Carr’s numbers aren’t strong enough and the receiving corps as a whole isn’t moving the needle. These projections should be the floor for the Saints, not the ceiling to aspire to.
Let’s break it down by each position group:
Quarterback
Derek Carr: 346-for-522, 3,817 yards, 22 TDs, 11 INTs (15 games)
Clay has Carr missing two games this year, which is a reasonable expectation after he was twice knocked out of matchups against the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings last season — and the New Orleans offensive line has a lot to prove after seeing one starter retire (James Hurst) and another unlikely to play this year, if ever again (Ryan Ramczyk). Clay also has Carr throwing fewer touchdowns and more interceptions in Klint Kubiak’s offense, but with more passing yards per game than we saw last year.
Running backs
Alvin Kamara: 183 carries, 758 yards, 5 TDs (66 catches, 484 yards, 2 TDs)
Kendre Miller: 71 carries, 310 yards, 2 TDs (31 catches, 241 yards, 1 TD)
Jamaal Williams: 85 carries, 341 yards, 2 TDs (19 catches, 110 yards)
It’s another backfield committee in New Orleans, but Kamara is expected to dominate his competition with more than half the rushing attempts (and an ever higher share of the receptions). That feels like an optimistic line for Williams with a full yard better per carry than he achieved last season. The sooner Miller is taking those touches, the better, but he must prove he can stay healthy.
Wide receivers
Chris Olave: 138 targets, 86 catches, 1,246 yards, 6 TDs
Rashid Shaheed: 86 targets, 54 catches, 740 yards, 4 TDs
Bub Means: 28 targets, 18 catches, 218 yards, 1 TD
Cedrick Wilson: 23 targets, 14 catches, 173 yards, 1 TD
It feels like a mistake to write off A.T. Perry like this (6 targets, 4 catches, 43 yards) after he managed a dozen receptions and 246 yards last season, scoring 4 touchdowns — which tied with Jimmy Graham and Juwan Johnson for third-most on the team. But Clay projects the vacuum Michael Thomas left behind to be filled by more targets for Shaheed and modest roles for Means and Wilson. Is Perry really going to be playing behind both of them?
Tight ends
Juwan Johnson: 69 targets, 45 catches, 506 yards, 4 TDs
Foster Moreau: 23 targets, 16 catches, 180 yards, 1 TD
This would be a solid bounce-back for Johnson after it took him and Carr too long to get on the same page last season, but it would be a very disappointing outcome for Moreau. He gained 793 yards in his last 32 games with the Raiders but was relegated to a blocking role that didn’t suit him last season, and Clay needs to see that plan change to believe it can happen in New Orleans.
Taysom Hill
Passing: 7-for-11, 80 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs
Rushing: 61 carries, 295 yards, 3 TDs
Receiving: 40 targets, 30 catches, 271 yards, 2 TDs
Hill is such a unique player (even in fantasy football) that he deserves his own focus. These numbers would be a slight drop off from his production last season, most notably as a runner, but it remains to be seen what role Kubiak envisions for him. Hill was lining up extensively at fullback during OTAs last week, but it’s only May. He’s a dynamic athlete and should see more opportunities to make plays or create them for teammates as a blocker.
Defensive tackles
Nathan Shepherd: 47 tackles, 2.6 sacks
Bryan Bresee: 34 tackles, 3.6 sacks
Khalen Saunders: 48 tackles, 1.1 sacks
Jack Heflin: 15 tackles, 1.0 sacks
Khristian Boyd: 11 tackles, 0.6 sacks
Bresee had 4.5 sacks as a rookie last year so this would be disappointing regression for him, even if he’s making more tackles. He needs to prove to the coaching staff that he’s put in the work to strengthen his run defense and become a more all-around lineman. You’d like to have a more dynamic presence as the DT4 ahead of Heflin, but maybe he’s learned some things after a year on the practice squad.
Defensive ends
Carl Granderson: 59 tackles, 7.1 sacks
Cameron Jordan: 43 tackles, 4.2 sacks
Chase Young: 31 tackles, 7.7 sacks
Tanoh Kpassagnon: 14 tackles, 1.9 sacks
Isaiah Foskey: 8 tackles, 1.0 sack
Payton Turner: 2 tackles, 0.3 sacks
Turner is the odd man out in Clay’s projections, which doesn’t line up with what we saw last season or last week at OTAs. He’s playing ahead of Foskey when healthy and was starting opposite Granderson at May practices when both Jordan and Young were recovering from offseason surgeries. Getting 7 or more sacks out of Young would be huge. This group combined for just 14 sacks altogether last year.
Linebackers
Demario Davis: 120 tackles, 2.7 sacks, 0.7 INTs
Pete Werner: 82 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 0.2 INTs
Willie Gay: 61 tackles, 1.7 sacks, 0.7 INTs
It’s a competition between Werner and Gay to start next to Davis, with the third linebacker only getting on the field for limited snaps in the Saints’ base defense; they run more reps out of nickel and dime personnel by a significant margin. Right now, Clay has Werner winning that battle, though Gay is still playing 500-plus defensive snaps and making more impact plays as a pass rusher and defender in coverage.
Cornerbacks
Paulson Adebo: 81 tackles, 2.7 INTs
Marshon Lattimore: 68 tackles, 1.8 INTs
Alontae Taylor: 52 tackles, 1.4 INTs
Kool-Aid McKinstry: 27 tackles, 0.7 INTs
Clay expects Lattimore to play 880 defensive snaps, which would be his highest total since 2021 and the third-most of what will be his eight-year career. Freak accident injuries have limited him in back-to-back years so he’s due for some good luck. This may look like a logjam at cornerback to some, but McKinstry rounds out the group with 354 defensive snaps, which is plenty for a CB4.
Safeties
Tyrann Mathieu: 78 tackles, 2.5 INTs
Jordan Howden: 57 tackles, 1.6 INTs
Johnathan Abram: 70 tackles, 1.0 INTs
Clay has Howden and Abram handling comparable workloads (644 snaps and 622, respectively) while replacing Marcus Maye, but Abram has been playing ahead of the second-year pro to close out the 2023 season and open up 2024 spring practices. It would be better for the younger player to develop quickly and assert himself in the starting lineup, but it hasn’t happened just yet. Mathieu is predicted to lead the team in snaps played again (1,019).
Special teams
Blake Grupe: 27-for-33 on FGs, 34-for-37 on PATs
Lou Hedley: 71 punts, 3,222 yards (45.1 average), 28 inside 20
Both specialists ward off their training camp competition in Clay’s projections, though Grupe would need to perform better than this to return for Year 3. He was perfect on extra points last year so this would be a trend in the wrong direction to go with no movement on his field goal tries. Net yards per punt is the stat to watch for Hedley, which Clay did not project, but landing fewer punts inside the 20 would be a problem.
