Well that’s interesting. ESPN senior NFL national reporter Dan Graziano broke down his predictions for all 32 teams going into the 2023 regular season, and he sees a scenario where the New Orleans Saints are competing for the No. 1 playoff seed in the NFC. That’s pretty high praise.
But here’s the catch: Graziano doesn’t see the Saints getting there for their own merits. Their very-favorable schedule is an advantage other teams around the conference don’t enjoy, with an abundance of unproven rookie quarterbacks and squads that weren’t exactly impressive last year. If the Saints do reach the postseason, Graziano is suggesting they won’t go much further after running into more formidable opponents:
Buy Saints Tickets“Please don’t get this twisted. I do not believe the Saints will be the best team in the NFC. I do not think they’re in that conversation with the Eagles, 49ers, Cowboys, Seahawks and others. But they do play in the NFC South, and their schedule is — on paper, at least — cream-cheese soft.
New Orleans plays four games against teams whose current projected starting quarterbacks are rookies (Texans, Colts and Panthers twice). It plays three games against teams whose current projected starting quarterbacks are first-year starters (Packers and Falcons twice). The rest of the Saints’ schedule includes just three quarterbacks who finished last season in the top 15 in Total QBR (Giants, Lions and Bears). They play seven games against teams that finished in the bottom seven last year in defensive efficiency and only two (Buccaneers and Patriots) that finished in the top 12.
The Saints believe that they’ve upgraded at quarterback with Derek Carr and that their defense is still among the league’s best. If they’re right, they should be able to pile up more wins than an offseason assessment of their overall roster might predict. And with the Eagles playing in a division with two other 2022 playoff teams, and the Niners likely getting challenged by the Seahawks in the NFC West, the Saints could sneak in as the conference’s top seed when all is said and done.”
Objectively speaking, the Saints are in a better spot than those Super Bowl contenders. They’ll be fighting off two teams in their division without quarterbacks (the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons) and a third NFC South rival that’s installing a new coaching staff and first-year passer. Comparatively speaking, New Orleans has the best chance of earning the division crown.
Here’s the part where we take issue with Graziano’s take on those NFC powerhouses. The Saints beat two of them last year, outscoring the Seattle Seahawks 39-32 and burying the Philadelphia Eagles (without superstar quarterback Jalen Hurts, we’ll admit) 20-10. The 49ers couldn’t even score two touchdowns on them and needed help from Andy Dalton to beat the Saints in Francisco 13-0. Dallas won their last meeting in 2021 with Taysom Hill throwing four interceptions.
If Carr can play better than guys like Hill and Dalton while the New Orleans defense meets its usual standards, they can compete with any of those teams. They’ve done it before. That’s the expectation for Dennis Allen and his coaching staff and players. They’ve got no room for excuses after upgrading at quarterback and keeping their best players on the roster this summer. If Allen can’t win games and get this team to the playoffs with such a weak schedule drawn up for them, that has to be the end of the line for him. Hopefully things go as well as hoped and the Saints won’t have to search for a new head coach in three or four months.
