IF there was any doubt that the Australian electricity grid is facing monumental change, it surely evaporated on Wednesday.
Origin Energy's declaration that its Eraring power station was running short on coal, made to the Australia Stock Exchange, had analysts dubbing it a "black swan" event: both sudden and serious.
It is an unwelcome surprise certainly for those who work at the power station, and of course for those who rely on it for their power needs. It is also a clear signal to the Albanese government that power policy will not wait for them to prepare, with the news coming only hours after new ministers including Shortland MP Pat Conroy were sworn in.
Economic realities are driving the push towards phasing out coal as the backbone of power infrastructure as much as environmental ones. The private sector's investment focus has pivoted decidedly towards renewable projects. While laudable that lower impact industries are those expanding, it seems inevitable there will be growing pains without a serious focus upon how the change is made.
NSW Energy Minister Matt Kean in February vowed to keep the lights on when Eraring's early closure came into effect. But while that promise was predicated upon years of preparation, the system requires capacity to deal with unexpected setbacks like the coal shortage revealed this week.
AGL, which operates Bayswater power station near Muswellbrook, has also found itself at a standstill. It announced a proposed de-merger between its energy retailing and coal-fired generation halves would not proceed, with a number of the company's top executives stepping down. Where it heads next is unclear.
What is clear is that a smooth transition away from the power source that has served NSW for decades will not simply happen. It requires planning, foresight and investment. Here in the Hunter there is a workforce dependent upon leaders taking the matter seriously, and a supply chain that will feel every ripple if they do not.
If there is any silver lining to Eraring's coal shortage, it is that it makes tangible the concerns of all sides of the debate. This is not a game of semantics or ideology - it is not a game at all. Rather, it is a high-stakes scenario with serious ramifications if taken lightly. We need decisive action; anything else is a gamble.
