RECAP: Asian equities rebounded yesterday as the prospect of an imminent interest rate increase by the US Federal Reserve receded after data showed new job creation had declined sharply.
Thai stocks continued their surge on Friday as investors accumulated investment cycle-related shares after the House of Representatives approved first reading of the 2027 Budget Bill.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,550.14 and 1,621.19 points this week, before closing yesterday at 1,611.28, up 4.5% from the previous week, with daily turnover averaging 80.3 billion baht.
Foreign investors were net buyers of 20.31 billion baht, followed by brokerage firms at 506.54 million. Retail investors were net sellers of 17.58 billion baht, followed by institutional investors at 3.24 billion.
NEWSMAKERS: US President Donald Trump said indirect negotiations between the US and Iran via Qatar were going well, claiming talks about "denuclearisation of Iran" were progressing. Talks will resume next week after the funeral of the late Iranian supreme leader.
Oil prices fell to levels not seen since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran, with Brent crude trading below $71 a barrel on Thursday, amid rising hopes for a breakthrough in negotiations for a permanent peace deal.
The US created 57,000 new jobs in June, only half of what economists had predicted, prompting the market to scale back forecasts for interest rate hikes. The CME FedWatch tool now shows a 47% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged at its meeting in September.
Fed chairman Kevin Warsh said prior to the release of the jobs report that the risks of higher inflation have receded over the past few weeks, helped by easing energy prices.
The US Supreme Court rejected Trump's attempts to fire a Federal Reserve governor, Lisa Cook in a landmark ruling that limits a president's authority over the central bank.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said it was still possible she could leave before her term ends in October 2027 to weigh in on French politics in the run-up to the presidential election.
Foreign investors sold Asian equities at the fastest pace in 16 years in the first half of 2026, taking profits after an AI-driven rally. Net sales to June 30 reached $137.4 billion from South Korea, Taiwan, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines.
The yen jumped against the dollar on Thursday after crossing beyond 162 on June 30, its weakest in 40 years, with traders alert to the prospect of intervention from Tokyo to prop up the stubbornly weak currency.
China placed 20 additional Japanese entities on its "watchlist," including Mitsui E&S Co, Terra Drone Corp, nuclear fuel processing companies, and units of OKI Electric Industry. Exports of related products will now require stricter licensing reviews.
Japanese retail sales in May rose more than expected by 5.3% year-on-year, accelerating from 2.8% in April. This marked the third consecutive monthly increase and the strongest growth in 31 months.
The rocket and AI company SpaceX passed the fast-track listing rules of Nasdaq and its shares will start trading on the tech-laden Nasdaq-100 index on July 7.
Apple is preparing to launch at least five new iPhone models between now and the first half of 2027. Notably, it has asked suppliers to prepare for an increase in foldable iPhone production capacity to 10 million units, from 7–8 million earlier.
Tesla reported global deliveries of 480,126 in the second quarter, up 25% from a year ago, when Elon Musk's work in the Trump administration led to consumer boycotts and protests.
Meta Platforms gained 10% after it announced plans to build a cloud infrastructure business that would sell access to computing power for AI models.
SK Hynix said it would invest $64 billion to build new chip plants, including one for NAND flash memory, as part of a massive Korean investment drive aimed at spreading returns from the AI boom.
China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index came in at 50.3 in June, slightly above market expectations of 50.1, indicating factory activity stayed in expansion territory.
Thailand ranked 27th globally and 7th in Asia in the US News & World Report Best Countries 2026 rankings for business and investment attractiveness.
Domestic car production fell by 11.4% year-on-year in May to 123,276 units, the Federation of Thai Industries said (the figure was revised from 17.9% reported earlier). Exports fell 27% to 59,434 units, pressured by the Mideast war and competition from Chinese EVs. Domestic sales rose 10.6%, driven by higher EV sales.
Thailand has secured $4.1 billion in investment pledges across its EV supply chain, solidifying its position as Southeast Asia's primary automotive hub as global carmakers realign production networks toward clean energy, the Board of Investment said.
Mazda Motor Corp is investing 7.4 billion baht to upgrade its AutoAlliance factory in Rayong to produce mild hybrid electric vehicles (MHEVs) in an effort to compete in a market increasingly dominated by battery electric vehicles.
SET-listed Bangchak Corp (BCP) has completed the 9-billion baht acquisition of 100% of Chevron Hong Kong. The company was renamed Bangchak Hong Kong but it will continue to operate the retail fuel business in Hong Kong under the Caltex brand.
Webull, the Florida-based global digital investment platform, announced its nearly 3-billion-baht acquisition of Pi Securities from Country Group Holdings (CGH), making a fast entry into the highly regulated Thai capital market.
The Ministry of Finance is preparing to revive the Thailand Future Fund by selecting existing projects to serve as underlying assets to raise funds for new projects.
The State Railway of Thailand and the Eastern Economic Corridor Policy Committee are expected to decide in August whether to proceed with the long-delayed high-speed rail project linking Don Mueang, Suvarnabhumi and U-tapao airports. Several attempts to agree on revised terms with the CP-led consortium have failed, but scrapping the project could also incur costs.
Thailand's shrimp exports to Malaysia are expected to resume within 30 days as both sides are working to expedite health and hygiene inspections of five Thai shrimp species, the agriculture ministry said.
Thailand's manufacturing production index dipped by 0.8% year-on-year to 101.8 points in May, attributed to a slowdown in domestic and export markets.
The House passed the first reading of the 2027 budget bill, which calls for state enterprise investments of 270 billion baht. The total budget of 3.8 trillion baht will have a deficit of 788 billion, with spending aimed at supporting 2026 GDP growth within a range of 1.7% and 2.7%, fuelled by exports, consumption, private investment and government spending.
The cabinet approved a one-year extension of the property transaction fee cuts, keeping transfer and mortgage fees at 0.01% for residential properties priced up to 7 million baht until June 2027.
Primary energy consumption in Thailand increased by 2.1% year-on-year in the first quarter, the Energy Policy and Planning Office reported. Final energy consumption grew 4.5%, supported by refined petroleum products and electricity, confirming a domestic economic recovery.
The Ministry of Tourism and Sports is seeking 3 billion baht to fund a co-payment travel scheme. The initiative aims to provide at least 1 million privileges, with an expected launch in the fourth quarter 2026.
Airports of Thailand said international departures in June declined 4.2% year-on-year. However, traffic in the final week accelerated by 9.1% from the week before.
COMING UP: On Monday, the US updates services and inflation data. On Tuesday, Japan announces household spending while the US reports trade data and the short-term energy outlook from the Energy Information Administration. On Wednesday, New Zealand decides on interest rates and the US releases oil inventories. On Thursday, the US reports jobless claims, consumer credit and home sales, while China reports inflation data. On Friday, Germany announces inflation data and the International Energy Agency releases its oil market outlook.
Locally, the Federation of Thai Capital Market Organisations announces its three-year strategic plan for Thailand's capital market and updates its market forecast. on Thursday, the Constitutional Court will rule on the government's 400-billion-baht borrowing decree.
STOCKS TO WATCH: InnovestX Securities recommends CPALL, SCGP and KTB, citing expectations that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September, while a favourable Constitutional Court ruling on the borrowing decree could boost investment sentiment.
Trinity Securities favours five sectors: power utilities (GULF, BGRIM, GPSC) on lower oil prices and data centre growth; banks (BBL, KKP, KBANK, SCB) for attractive interim dividends; hospitals (BH, BDMS, CHG) due to the high season; beverage producers (OSP, ICHI, SAPPE) which benefit from hot weather and lower packaging costs; and livestock companies (CPF, TFG, BTG) on recovering pork prices and easing feed costs.
TECHNICAL VIEW: Krungsri Securities sees support at 1,576 points and resistance at 1,627. InnovestX Securities sees support at 1,570 and resistance 1,645.
