Ten years after Paris, this eight-part series brings together leading voices on climate action to assess what's been achieved and what's gone wrong. Through conversations with experts from across the globe, it charts how international cooperation has adapted amid rising geopolitical tensions, tracks the evolution of climate finance and policy, and examines the shifting balance of influence as developing nations claim greater authority.This episode focuses on worldwide efforts to reduce carbon emissions and evaluates their outcomes.The podcast is based on 28 interviews carried out globally by journalist Sophie Larmoyer on behalf of IDDRI, the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations.
A decade after the Paris Agreement, global decarbonisation efforts reveal mixed results with notable regional progress undermined by continued emissions growth, leaving the world on track for dangerous warming levels despite improved climate governance and private sector engagement.
Temperatures continue rising at 0.3 degrees per decade due to human activities, with 2024 marking 1.52 degrees above pre-industrial levels. At current emission rates of 40 billion tonnes of CO₂ annually, the remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5°C will be exhausted within three years.
Carbon sink effectiveness is diminishing as ecosystems weaken under climate stress, with French forests halving their carbon capture capacity in fifteen years whilst Czech forests have become net emitters.
The Paris Agreement's framework of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) has achieved incremental progress. "What we have seen in ten years is really an improvement, level by level, where we have managed to contain projections", observed Sébastien Treyer of IDDRI. Initial projections of 6°C warming have been reduced to approximately 2°C if all policies are implemented.
Second-generation NDCs demonstrate significantly improved quality, featuring sectoral plans, economy-wide targets and comprehensive gas coverage rather than merely aspirational targets.
Regional leaders emerge
Ten G20 countries or regions have reached peak emissions, marking declining trajectories. Europe, the United States since 2005, and China in the first quarter of 2025 have reduced greenhouse gas output. Around 23 to 25 countries globally have decreased emissions since the early twenty-first century.
Europe demonstrates strongest leadership with one-third emissions reductions achieved and trajectory towards 55 percent reduction by 2030. The clean energy sector contributed one-third of EU growth in 2023.
China presents the most dramatic transformation, potentially reaching peak emissions in 2025—five years ahead of its 2030 target. "China has become the superpower of clean technologies in the world", noted Li Shuo of the Asia Society Policy Institute. This shift occurs despite continued heavy coal dependence.
Brazil's emissions trajectory depends entirely on political will regarding deforestation. Under President Lula, annual deforestation rates have fallen 40 percent compared to 2022, following devastating increases under Bolsonaro. Between 2004 and 2010, Brazil reduced emissions by one billion tonnes annually through cutting deforestation to one-fifth previous levels.
Strong governance mechanisms prove crucial for sustained progress. South Africa's presidential climate commission sits directly with the president, creating robust institutional capacity. Chile's inclusive stakeholder process produced carbon budgets and climate plans resilient to government changes. Some 70 countries have adopted long-term strategies whilst 145 have made carbon neutrality commitments.
Resistance and obstacles
Progress faces significant obstacles. Emerging economies question whether development without fossil fuels is achievable at scale. Political regression threatens existing targets, with European elections in June 2024 strengthening conservative and far-right forces. "We would be satisfied with the unsatisfactory because there is a strong threat of regression", warned climatologist Christophe Cassou.
Social barriers have emerged prominently since 2019–2020 as transition losers resist change. Disinformation campaigns contest solution effectiveness despite scientific evidence, particularly regarding electric vehicles. Fossil fuel subsidies remain nine times greater than renewable energy support.
The fossil fuel sector maintains strong presence in climate negotiations whilst continuing massive investments in new oil and gas fields alongside renewables. "When you add fossil fuels and renewables, that's not what we call the energy transition", observed Treyer.
Private sector engagement remains uneven. The We Mean Business coalition has grown from 150 companies in 2015 to 20,000 today, including 10,000 SMEs through the SME Climate Hub. Yet greenwashing persists alongside genuine transformation efforts.
Difficult-to-decarbonise sectors show mixed results. Swedish steel group SSAB has demonstrated green hydrogen steel production at scale, cutting Sweden's national emissions by 3 percent initially with plans for additional 7 percent reductions through a €4.5 billion investment by 2028. Automotive customers demand low-carbon steel to meet their own decarbonisation targets.
Construction sector progress has been offset by growth. Saint-Gobain reduced emissions by 34 percent between 2017 and 2024, yet global materials production increases in China, India and high-growth countries have compensated for these efforts. Projections suggest as many buildings will be constructed in the next thirty years as currently exist, creating unprecedented challenges despite improved building codes such as France's RE2020.
