The Houston Rockets have several first-round draft assets in 2023: Their own pick, one via Milwaukee, and pick-swap rights connected to those selections from the Nets and Clippers, respectively.
Milwaukee (43-17) enters March and the home stretch of the 2022-23 regular season with the NBA’s worst record, so it’s very likely that Houston will be using its newly obtained right to swap that first-round pick with one from the Los Angeles Clippers (33-30).
As of today, that right — obtained from the Eric Gordon trade — would move Houston from No. 30 in the first round to No. 19 overall. However, because that swap right is top-six protected, there is a very small possibility that if the Clippers miss the playoffs and win one of the four draft-lottery selections, the Rockets would instead get the Milwaukee pick and a Los Angeles second-round pick.
On the other hand, it’s unlikely that Houston (13-47) will use its right to swap picks with Brooklyn (34-26), since the Nets are higher in the standings. However, because of the league’s flattened lottery odds, it can’t entirely be ruled out. Here’s a look at the four scenarios to watch for as the regular season nears its April 9 conclusion.
Houston’s own 2023 first-round draft pick
Teams within five games of Houston in the Feb. 28 standings:
- 1. Houston, 13-47
- 2. San Antonio, 14-47, 0.5 games back (GB)
- 3. Detroit, 15-47, 1.0 GB
This is quite basic: The Rockets benefit from the Spurs and Pistons winning games. While the top-three teams have identical odds at landing one of the top-four picks selected in the lottery, the worst teams are better off in worst-case scenarios. For example, the bottom team can’t have its pick fall below No. 5, whereas the second-worst team could drop to No. 6 and the third-worst team as low as No. 7.
Houston’s 2023 right to swap first-round picks with Brooklyn
Teams in the Feb. 28 NBA standings who are within five games of potentially passing Brooklyn:
- 11. Portland, 29-31
- 12. New Orleans, 30-32
- 12. Toronto, 30-32
- 14. Minnesota, 31-32
- 15. Utah, 31-31
- 16. Golden State, 31-30
- 16. Atlanta, 31-30
- 18. Dallas, 32-30
- 19. Clippers, 33-30
- 20. Phoenix, 33-29
- 20. Miami, 33-29
- 22. Brooklyn, 34-26
- 23. New York, 36-27
- 24. Sacramento, 35-25
- 25. Cleveland, 39-25
With Brooklyn’s pick, we’re mostly focused on teams who the Nets could conceivably fall behind. We’re not looking at teams who they might theoretically jump, because if Brooklyn makes the 2023 playoffs, the pick-swap right owned by the Rockets would have zero chance of activating. The only chance of Brooklyn’s results being relevant to Houston is if they tumble down the standings and miss the playoffs, which would give them at least a small chance at winning one of the top-four lottery selections.
With the Nets, it comes down to whether they gave themselves too much of a buffer with the wins they stacked up before losing Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving at the February trade deadline. They’ve lost six of eight games since the first of those two deals was agreed to, so it’s at least plausible that a tumble in the standings could occur.
Brooklyn currently owns the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference standings, which is the last that would qualify for the playoffs without having to go through the East’s play-in tournament.
With that in mind, the key teams to watch are Miami, Atlanta, and Toronto, since those are who could most conceivably bump the Nets into the play-in tournament range. Should the Nets lose in the play-in tournament — and there’s a clear argument to be made that they will be a weaker opponent than their record might indicate, since their record was obtained in large part due to Durant and Irving — that would drop them into the lottery pool.
While relatively small, Brooklyn falling to the lottery would at least provide a small increase to Houston’s odds.
It’s also not implausible that if things go poorly in Brooklyn, the Nets might be incentivized to consider shutting down key players early. With this being a swap year, they would be guaranteed a lottery pick no matter what (either their own or one from Houston). Thus, if it looks like the Durant- and Irving-less Nets would be a quick out in the playoffs, regardless, there’s an argument to be made that they’re better off, organizationally, to try and maximize the value of that first-round asset as part of a plan to retool for future years.
Houston’s 2023 right to swap Milwaukee’s first-round pick with Los Angeles
Teams in the Feb. 28 NBA standings who are within five games of the Los Angeles Clippers, in either direction:
- 7. Chicago, 28-33
- 8. Oklahoma City, 28-32
- 9. Washington, 28-32
- 10. Lakers, 29-32
- 11. Portland, 29-31
- 12. New Orleans, 30-32
- 13. Toronto, 30-32
- 14. Minnesota, 31-32
- 15. Utah, 31-31
- 16. Golden State, 31-30
- 16. Atlanta, 31-30
- 18. Dallas, 32-30
- 19. Clippers, 33-30
- 20. Phoenix, 33-29
- 20. Miami, 33-29
- 22. Brooklyn, 34-26
- 23. New York, 36-27
- 24. Sacramento, 35-25
- 25. Cleveland, 39-25
This one is very simple. In terms of Houston interests, cheer against the Clippers, and cheer for every other team on this list — with the possible exclusion of the Nets, for aforementioned reasons.
Also, because the Thunder own a right to swap with the Clippers before Houston’s swap comes into play, it’s beneficial for Oklahoma City not to win too many games. If they stay behind the Clippers, as they currently are, the Thunder would almost certainly keep their own pick and not enter the equation, as it pertains to Houston.
Because this pick-swap right with Los Angeles is top-six protected, there is a small possibility where if the Clippers miss the 2023 Western Conference playoffs and somehow defy the odds to win a top-four lottery pick, the Rockets would instead receive Milwaukee’s first-round selection (which they originally had, tracing back to the 2021 PJ Tucker trade) and a 2023 second-round pick via the Clippers.
However, you probably shouldn’t let that small possibility dictate your thinking too much. In a top-heavy NBA landscape, the Rockets would almost certainly prefer taking that small risk in order to have much higher upside with where that pick is likely to finish.
Translated, the Rockets would prefer the Clippers missing the playoffs and entering the lottery at, say, No. 13 in the order (even with a very small chance of Los Angeles jumping to the top four and keeping that pick), relative to the Clippers making the playoffs and the Rockets being guaranteed of a pick at, say, No. 20 overall.
Milwaukee’s 2023 first-round draft pick
Teams in the Feb. 28 NBA standings who are within five games of the Milwaukee Bucks, in either direction:
- 27. Philadelphia, 39-21
- 28. Denver, 43-19
- 29. Boston, 44-18
- 30. Milwaukee, 43-17
This is almost entirely inconsequential. For starters, this only comes into play if the Clippers miss the 2023 playoffs and defy the odds to earn a top-four lottery pick, which is very unlikely. Without that, Houston will swap the Milwaukee pick for the Los Angeles one.
Second, the Bucks have already won so many games that the highest their pick could reasonably rise is No. 27. So, it’s going to be at the back end of the first round, no matter what. But if you want to prepare for every contingency, I guess it can’t hurt to cheer for the 76ers, Nuggets, and Celtics while cheering against the Bucks.
2023 NBA draft lottery odds by seed
These seeds are determined by the final records among non-playoff teams, going from worst to best.
