Until this summer, even the worst general election performances of the Conservative party still achieved vote shares of over 30%. This time, it could only scrape 23.7% of the vote. No generation of Tory leaders has lost as badly.
Yet the impression given to voters is of a party in denial. Conservative leadership candidates have so far attempted to “style it out”, behaving as if the party just lost by a few seats, rather than the near two-thirds cull of MPs that took place. There has been no real contrition, no self-reflection. Activists are told that the election result was down to “poor delivery” – a woefully inadequate excuse.
Another principal diagnosis has put the result down to not travelling far enough down the “Reform-lite” political wilderness path, the very reason the party is now on its knees. Meanwhile, at a time when Labour has gained power by shifting away from being a party of protest, there are those who seem determined this is what the Conservatives should now become, a party that is more about slogans than measured, evidence-based, joined-up policy solutions.
It’s as if the election result never happened – “Alice in Wonderland” politics from leadership contenders who tell activists what they want to hear to win their votes, instead of openly confronting the harsh truths and tough questions the Conservative party must face if it is to rebuild. That is “followership”, not leadership.
It is naive to assume that voter disenchantment with a new Labour government or some automatic electoral tide will see voters flock back to the Conservatives. And if its choice of new leader leads it to become ever more a party of protest, competing with Reform UK, it will probably lose that battle.
More importantly, it will forfeit being seen as a serious party of opposition. Mainstream politics is on notice in the UK, with voters losing faith in our main political parties. All of us who are against the rise of populism, whether on the right or left, have a stake in our country’s success over the next five years. That means constructive opposition with high ambition for Britain, challenging with better solutions and bold new ideas, not just “anti” politics that fuels the very discontent on which populism and extremism thrives.
A healthy democracy needs a healthy opposition, one that gives voters a genuine alternative choice of government. The task for Conservative members gathering at the annual party conference in Birmingham is to find a leader who can be that choice for the country, not just for them. They need a Conservative leader whom voters see as a potential prime minister, with a vision a wider country can buy into, one who is serious about rebuilding it as a potential party of power, not just as a party of protest. As Labour’s Corbyn experiment proved, choosing a leader solely representing the party’s internal echo chamber, playing the tune of an ever-narrowing clique of activists, simply means being off the political pitch for longer. But this is a critical time for Britain’s democracy.
The Conservative party needs a radical change of course. With just over a month to go in the contest, time is running out for the truthful debate the party needs to have. But there is a route ahead. A shift away from what the party is against and focusing on what it is for – an inclusive, modern party with an ambition for Britain on aspiration and opportunity. A shift back to the mainstream of British politics and being relevant once again. Confronting the reality of the 2024 general election result might seem too much like political shock therapy to some. But the party has to jolt itself back into the real world. With Reform UK and the Lib Dems now in parliament in force, politically waiting to eat them up, this chance won’t last for ever.
Justine Greening was the Conservative MP for Putney from 2005 to 2019
