Gareth Southgate has proudly boasted that he would know his starting line-up if the World Cup started tomorrow.
That was a nice soundbite six months ago when England clinched their place in Qatar and everything in the garden looked rosy. Now, with 70 days until England’s opening Group match, his selection looks a long way from being settled and Southgate faces some major dilemmas.
England boss Southgate names his final squad before Qatar on Thursday for this month’s Nations League matches with Italy and Germany. It is unlikely he will pick anyone who he does not think is capable of being in the World Cup squad so he will not be doing too many experiments.
But Southgate will be without No.1 keeper Jordan Pickford who has been ruled out by Everton because of a thigh injury. That could mean a recall for Dean Henderson who has been in good form while on loan at Nottingham Forest but may also provide an indicator as to who will be England’s No2.
It is a close call between Newcastle ’s in-form Nick Pope and Arsenal No.1 Aaron Ramsdale as they look ahead of Sam Johnstone. But the biggest dilemma of all is in central defence because Southgate has always been fiercely loyal to Harry Maguire and now comes the biggest test of that loyalty.
Maguire has lost his starting place at Manchester United, he is relegated to starting Europa League games and his first start of the season in that competition ended with defeat to Real Sociedad. Having less than ten games under his belt before the World Cup - if he plays in the Europa League and Carabao Cup - is hardly ideal preparation for Maguire.
Tottenham ’s Eric Dier is a big shout for getting a recall after two years in the international wilderness as he can play in a back four, a back three and step up into midfield.
Southgate has favoured a back three in recent times because it offers more security to an unsettled defence. Brighton's in-form defenders Adam Webster and Lewis Dunk are surely well overdue a chance based on form but it remains to be seen whether anyone comes in from left field.
But any idea that England would have a huge advantage because the tournament comes mid-season already looks misplaced. There are injuries, selection issues and players losing form.
Harry Kane is absolutely nailed on as England’s most important player but the lack of back-up has made England look at Brentford’s Ivan Toney as Tammy Abraham appears to be the only other realistic option. Raheem Sterling does look to be one Chelsea signing who has hit the ground running in a turbulent season but it has been hard for him to shine amid all the change at Stamford Bridge.
Jack Grealish is not a guaranteed starter at Manchester City, nor John Stones and Trent Alexander-Arnold’s form has become a big issue for Liverpool.
Southgate will name his squad on Thursday but out of respect for the Queen will not do his usual media conference. The Queen was patron of the FA and England will honour and pay their respects to her with black armbands and a minute’s silence before the Germany game.
However, his reasoning and thoughts will quickly become clear in Italy and against Germany when he will definitely pick his strongest XI because these are the last two games before the World Cup.
And from great optimism in the summer of 2021 when England reached the Euros final and only lost to Italy on a penalty shoot-out, expectations have been checked somewhat which may be is a good thing.
But having been among the pre-tournament favourites and getting a relatively friendly group, there is still little room for error or excuses this winter.
