SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC), a research centre under Siam Commercial Bank, expects energy costs will continue to propel inflation in the second half of the year even as the Middle East war shows signs of de-escalation.
Although tensions between the US and Iran have begun to subside, the Brent crude price is expected to remain elevated compared with the pre-war level. In the EIC's view, Brent is expected to average US$85 per barrel throughout 2026, potentially falling to $80 in the second half, according to chief economist Yunyong Thaicharoen.
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