Hurricane Ian has just swept across the Caribbean and the US east coast. It’s likely to become the deadliest hurricane in Florida’s history. The entirety of Cuba lost power for several days; homes have been flattened; and repairing the devastation could cost billions.
Hurricanes are a natural meteorological phenomenon, but one study has already found that the climate emergency directly added 10% more rainfall to Hurricane Ian. Arguably, we are already in the eye of an even bigger, global storm – and with every fraction of a degree of global heating, the damage escalates.
Yet as politicians are preoccupied by the global energy price crisis, they are deliberately failing to join the dots. It is the soaring cost of gas, precipitated by Russia’s devastating war in Ukraine, that has tipped us over into eye-watering energy bills, and put supply volatility under the microscope. We know that fossil fuels are the root cause, and we know that breaking our dependence and keeping them in the ground is our only way out. Yet for some reason, we haven’t stopped digging.
Why? Because major fossil fuel giants, and the nations propping them up, are acting like tobacco companies, stonewalling any efforts to reduce – let alone end – global fossil fuel production. Global climate diplomacy has now become an anti-smoking campaign which is too afraid to mention the word “cigarettes”.
The landmark 2015 Paris agreement failed to contain a single reference to fossil fuels, and the Cop26 Glasgow climate pact agreed last year could only “call upon” countries to phase out “inefficient fossil fuel subsidies” – as if they are ever efficient. Even the language on coal was diluted to a thin gruel, from “phase out” to “phase down”.
No wonder the fossil fuel industry is thriving, and we’ve not yet ditched our deadly 40-a-day habit.
We need a global solution to end this stitch-up, with fairness and security at its heart to ensure no country is left behind in the energy transition – and this is why the fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty is so significant. Modelled on the nuclear non-proliferation treaty which has been signed by 191 countries worldwide, it complements existing UN frameworks with three new specific goals: to end to all new fossil fuel exploration and production; to phase out existing fossil fuel production in line with 1.5C; and to adopt a just transition for every worker, community and country.
The treaty has so far been backed by more than 65 cities and sub-national governments across the world. And just a matter of days ago, the island state of Vanuatu became the first country to throw its weight behind the treaty. The global south is at the sharp end of the climate emergency – countries such as Vanuatu understand that every fraction of a degree matters to the very survival of their people, and every drop of oil makes a difference.
Any successful global agreement to shift away from fossil fuels for good will rely on knowing what the fossil fuel giants are planning when it comes to future drilling and pumping. That’s where the global registry of fossil fuels comes in.
The world’s first public database of fossil fuel production, reserves and emissions, developed by Carbon Tracker and Global Energy Monitor, contains data for more than 50,000 fields in 89 countries, covering 75% of global production. And it’s already found that producing and burning the world’s proven fossil fuel reserves would bust our remaining carbon budget for 1.5C more than seven times over.
This reality exposes the absurdity of countries like ours, which are ploughing ahead with new production and infrastructure – such as major North Sea oil and gas fields including Cambo and Jackdaw – fuelling our toxic fossil fuel habit and leading to a vicious cycle of locked-in emissions.
The need to keep fossil fuels in the ground is undeniable. But in this energy crisis, a clean, green, cheap and long-term alternative is needed in their place – and fortunately, it’s ready and waiting.
Here in the UK, renewables are now a staggering nine times cheaper than gas; and on a global scale, solar and wind has the potential to meet our planet’s energy demand 100 times over. It just needs the political will to adopt the infrastructure at speed and scale.
And it’s starting to happen. Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, passed in August, has been labelled “the biggest step forward on climate ever” – it directed $369bn of investment towards renewable energy and reducing the US’s current astronomical emissions.
Even here in the UK, the one tiny silver lining from Kwasi Kwarteng’s omnishambles mini-budget was the unblocking of onshore wind – one of the cheapest and most popular forms of energy generation.
But no matter how many new renewables we bring online, our security will continue to be undermined unless they are a replacement for, rather than simply an additionto, the fossil fuels in the global registry.
When the storm is rapidly gathering, and the window of a safe and liveble future is rapidly closing, we must unite to keep fossil fuels in the ground for good.
Caroline Lucas is the Green MP for Brighton Pavilion
