This week marked two years since a win away at Leeds sparked the turnaround at Newcastle United that led them to the Champions League.
On Saturday 22 January 2022 the club were ten games into the Eddie Howe era. Of those games they had won just one, drawn four and lost five, including an embarrassing home defeat to then League One club Cambridge United in the FA Cup.
Confidence was non-existent. Newcastle were 19th in the league, four points from safety. Leeds meanwhile were four positions ahead of them. A win for Marcelo Bielsa’s side would’ve taken them to tenth in the league.
But Newcastle narrowly triumphed after weathering a storm in Yorkshire. Leeds dominated but missed several chances, Martin Dubravka performed miracles in goal and Jonjo Shelvey squeezed in a freekick that secured Eddie Howe an unquantifiable win.
Ask any Newcastle fan and they will point to this afternoon at Leeds as the day their club’s fortunes tangibly changed. After the game, the team flew to Saudi Arabia for a warm weather winter break and when they returned they had three new team-mates: defenders Matt Targett and Dan Burn, and Brazilian midfielder Bruno Guimaraes, a flagship signing from Lyon who cost around £40m.
If this was the start of a new era, the final days of the 2024 winter window could be the end of one.
In what has been not so much an unravelling, but an unnerving month for the club, Newcastle began January by announcing their financial results for the year ending 2023. They revealed a 39 per cent increase in revenues, but a loss after tax of £73.4m, “driven by continued investment in the playing squad”. Newcastle are losing money faster than they’re making it.
CEO Darren Eales addressed the media the same day the results were made public talking about “the nature of the beast”, and pointing out that “if you trade players on, it creates more headroom. You have to keep growing that headroom, increasing commercial revenue and player trading.”
It was effectively a sales pitch. Newcastle are open to offers for their players. They need to make headroom to make headway. The narrative at the club has changed from the first interview Amanda Staveley gave as 10 per cent owner in 2021. The taking on the world tone is now: “We’ve got a long way to go”.
Eales referenced Newcastle’s “process-driven” ownership, who are committed to spending the maximum allowed under Premier League Profit and Sustainability rules (PSR).
It’s no coincidence that in the days that followed rumours of interest and offers for Newcastle's players begin to materialise. It has been six weeks of stark realities for Newcastle fans: knocked out of the Champions League and League Cup and knocked down to tenth in the league by a series of bruising defeats.
Outlets reported that Joelinton could’ve played his last game for the club, Callum Wilson has been linked with moves to Atletico Madrid and AC Milan, there is an offer on the table for Miguel Almiron from Saudi Arabia and concrete interest from Bayern Munich for Kieran Trippier.
Not to mention more speculative gossip that big clubs like Arsenal and PSG are formulating summer moves for star players Alexander Isak and Bruno Guimaraes.
Ideally, you wouldn’t sell any of these players. But injuries and their knock-on effects look to have forced Newcastle into some big, brave and potentially risky decisions regarding their personnel. Personnel who have brought some of the greatest moments in the club’s recent history.
It is the first real test for the manager and ownership group who now have standards and expectations to meet from fans and current sponsors and potential sponsors.
Newcastle are tenth in the league and theoretically unable to sign players due to profit and sustainability allowances, with Everton and Nottingham Forest very real and frightening examples of the consequences of not operating within these limits.
There would be sadness among the Newcastle fan base if any of the current first team left, but only losing the likes of Joelinton, Guimaraes, Botman, Gordon and Isak would require Eddie Howe to explain his actions to supporters on the steps of the Milburn Stand, as Kevin Keegan felt he had to do when he sold Andy Cole to Manchester United 29 years ago.
If supporters are honest and pragmatic about the situation, and listen to what Darren Eales told them earlier this month, the chance to extract value from Callum Wilson, Miguel Almiron (who turns 30 on 10 February) and Kieran Trippier should probably be seized now.
All have been fantastic servants but Wilson is only available around 50 per cent of the time, cover for Trippier exists in the shape of Tino Livramento and Emil Krafth, with another right back, Harrison Ashby, doing well out on loan at Swansea. Miguel Almiron, probably the most valuable player of the trio, blows hot and cold and divides fans down the middle.
Ignoring their values, removing each from the wage bill is probably as valuable as recouping transfer fees. If it freed up room to do a loan deal for Kalvin Phillips, bring in a younger, less injury-prone striker and invest in a more consistent wideman, Newcastle fans’ heartbreak would be soothed.
Manchester City have developed the knack for timing sales of their players extremely well and now Newcastle need to learn this art. Meanwhile, supporters need to manage the emotion of losing popular players. Trippier in particular would sting. But this is short-term pain for potential long-term gain.
When Kevin Keegan publicly addressed supporters outraged at the sale of Andy Cole to a rival 29 years ago, he had a plan to sign Les Ferdinand the following summer. Though he couldn't say at the time, it turned out to be a move that was the catalyst for Newcastle’s best season in seven decades.
The next few days at St. James’ Park could define the next few years. Whatever happens, Newcastle fans shouldn't expect to see Eddie Howe appear on the Milburn Stand steps, they just have to trust him.
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