The Emmys are back, and at an unusual time, owing to the writers and actors strikes which delayed their standard September airdate. Will it be a Succession sweep? Will voters lean toward Ted Lasso or Abbott Elementary for comedy? And what about The Bear? (Just the first season – this year’s Emmy eligibility ended in early 2023). Here are our picks for the night:
Drama series
It’s a strong year for best drama series, with three critically beloved HBO series (Succession, The Last of Us and The White Lotus, now classified as a drama series with its second season) and one less beloved but still phenomenally expensive HBO series (House of the Dragon). There’s also a Netflix awards stalwart (The Crown, for its first Diana-centric season); the cult-hit survival series Yellowjackets; one undersung (at least by the Emmys) series swan song in Better Call Saul; and the under-watched but extremely well-received Star Wars prequel Andor. If there were to be an upset of the undefeated Succession, it would probably be Better Call Saul, the rare excellent spin-off that was acclaimed throughout six seasons. (A case should be made for Andor, as one of the best portrayals of political revolution on television.) But Succession, with its masterly fourth and final season and whopping 27 nominations, is all but a lock here.
Will win: Succession
Should win: Succession
Comedy series
An interesting category given that neither Barry nor The Bear are comedies, in spirit – critically beloved and with Barry on its way out, they could be the spoilers. Both stand better chances than the Netflix smash Wednesday, the endearing odd-throuple podcast detectives in Only Murders in the Building or The Marvelous Mrs Maisel, the 50s-set comedian dramedy that has fallen off in its later seasons. Ted Lasso, nominated for its third and (allegedly) final season, has won twice before, and could easily win again. But the momentum is probably with voter-beloved Abbott Elementary, which has already nabbed wins for writer Quinta Brunson and supporting actor Sheryl Lee Ralph.
Will win: Abbott Elementary
Should win: The Bear
Limited series
This year’s limited series slate is fairly wide open, with the absence of the White Lotus and, with the exception of Beef, a critically acclaimed mini-series du jour. Both Daisy Jones & the Six, Amazon’s pricey series on a Fleetwood Mac-esque band (complete with an original Rumours-esque album!), and Fleishman Is in Trouble were flawed adaptations of hit novels that generated fine-enough responses. Obi-Wan Kenobi didn’t translate much past its core audience of Star Wars fans. Ryan Murphy has won in this category twice before, for American Crime Story: The Assassination of Gianni Versace and The People v OJ Simpson, so don’t count out Dahmer, a show I am unable to bring myself to watch. Odds are in favor, however, of the recent Golden Globes sweeper Beef, which sucked viewers into an all-consuming road rage showdown.
Will win: Beef
Should win: Beef
Lead actress in a drama series
With the exception of Melanie Lynskey, who is again fantastically inscrutable on Yellowjackets, this is an entirely new slate for best dramatic actress. (A third season of Euphoria has not materialized yet, so two-time winner Zendaya is on hiatus.) Elisabeth Moss has been nominated four times, and won once, for her leading role in The Handmaid’s Tale, but given the dystopian series’s descent into unwatchable grimness in recent seasons, she’s unlikely to repeat this year. Sharon Horgan’s caustic performance on Bad Sisters, Bella Ramsey’s breakout turn alongside Pedro Pascal in The Last of Us and Keri Russell’s reliably solid work in The Diplomat are all solid choices. But Succession’s perfectly executed finale would not have worked without Sarah Snook’s ultra-convincing performance, and this is her year.
Will win: Sarah Snook
Should win: Sarah Snook
Lead actor in a drama series
Jeff Bridges deserves recognition for his work in The Old Man, as a seventysomething ex-CIA agent evading the FBI, a role that nearly killed him. Same for Bob Odenkirk, a six-time nominee but never a winner for Better Call Saul. Pedro Pascal’s ascension to beloved everyman actor got a huge boost through his gritty work on The Last of Us. This is Succession’s year, though, with an impressive 14 acting nominations and a record three from one show in this category. I’d give Jeremy Strong the edge, given that he won in 2020 and that patriarch Brian Cox is, um, not in that many episodes this season. Recent Golden Globe winner Kieran Culkin would have been a lock for supporting actor, and he deserves an award for the puerile, fractured imp that is Roman Roy.
Will win: Jeremy Strong
Should win: Kieran Culkin
Lead actor in a comedy series
Because the Emmys were delayed from last fall, this is actually White’s first nomination for The Bear, for the show’s first season. (I’d expect the superior second season to snap up some Emmys.) Given his track record at the Golden Globes / on the horny internet, he’s certainly a contender for the perpetually stressed, not-very-comedic chef Carmy Berzatto. The nomination is the win for Jason Segel – Shrinking doesn’t have much of a following – and though well-liked, the previously nominated Martin Short doesn’t have much of a chance for Only Murders. Bill Hader, who won in 2018 and 2019 for playing a hitman turned actor, could win again for Barry’s (dark) final outing. Never discount TV Academy goodwill for the outwardly feelgood Ted Lasso, which could translate into a repeat win for Jason Sudeikis.
Will win: Jeremy Allen White
Should win: Bill Hader
Lead actress in a comedy series
With the absence of Jean Smart – the third season of Hacks premieres this year – the field is open again, with veterans Rachel Brosnahan and Christina Applegate, for to the under-watched Dead to Me, as well as newcomer (and viral dance creator) Jenna Ortega for Wednesday. This is Quinta Brunson’s second acting nomination for Abbott Elementary, and though she’s not the acting standout from the show, I expect the TV academy to reward her for anchoring a widely appealing series. The fount of charisma that is Natasha Lyonne could be a dark horse, given how she delightfully rips (and smokes) through most scenes on Poker Face.
Will win: Quinta Brunson
Should win: Natasha Lyonne
Lead actor in a limited series
There’s no clear frontrunner in this category, with several nominated actors in underseen or underwhelming limited series. I’d like to see more acknowledgment of Daniel Radcliffe’s sincere and strange performance in Weird: The Al Yankovic Story. Kumail Nanjiani, Taron Egerton and Michael Shannon all delivered solid work in shows that didn’t generate much enthusiasm, and are outside chances here. The TV Academy frequently rewards Ryan Murphy and could anoint Evan Peters’s twisted performance as an infamous serial killer, though odds are probably just as good for Steven Yeun’s memorably beleaguered and revenge-bet Danny in Beef, fresh off a Golden Globes win.
Will win: Steven Yeun
Should win: Steven Yeun
Lead actress in a limited series
Another tough one, given the relative lack of hype for most of the nominated series, with the exception of Beef; Ali Wong’s breakout dramatic role is the favorite here. Lizzy Caplan, Jessica Chastain, Kathryn Hahn and Riley Keough each did their part to power uneven shows, with Keough even taking on the extra burden of summoning enough charisma (and singing chops) to approximate a fictional Stevie Nicks. In terms of awarding acting achievements, though, Dominique Fishback deserves for just how much her performance alone carried the deeply flawed fandom satire that is Swarm.
Will win: Ali Wong
Should win: Dominique Fishback
Best talk series
The TV academy scrapped its former variety sketch series last year and created two new categories: best talk series, for shows with “unscripted interviews or panel discussions between a host/hosts and guest celebrities or personalities”, and scripted variety series, for “programs that are primarily scripted or feature loosely scripted improv and consist of discrete scenes, musical numbers, monologues, comedy standups, sketches, etc”. Presumably, this solved two problems at once: the dominance of John Oliver’s largely scripted Last Week Tonight over traditional late-night shows, and the decline of sketch shows as a discrete category (there have been, for years, just two or three entries). Without Last Week Tonight, the door is open for the TV Academy to reward the final year of Trevor Noah’s tenure at the Daily Show, though Stephen Colbert is by far the best host at processing the day’s news in monologue format.
Will win: The Daily Show with Trevor Noah
Should win: The Late Show with Stephen Colbert
Scripted variety series
It’s not really fair to compare Last Week Tonight to Saturday Night Live, but when it comes to being both topical and funny … there’s no reason why John Oliver’s Sunday night program shouldn’t continue its Emmys streak to eight consecutive years.
Will win: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
Should win: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver
Supporting actor in a drama series
It’s an HBO prestige showdown between the promiscuous men of The White Lotus and the scheming minions of Succession. There’s not a weak performance in the bunch, but the sycophantic Tom Wambsgans was a truly original, singularly deranged character, and Matthew Macfadyen’s ability to stick the landing is a triumph.
Will win: Matthew Macfadyen
Should win: Matthew Macfadyen
Supporting actress in a drama series
More HBO prestige, with a side of Rhea Seehorn’s under-heralded work in Better Call Saul and Princess Diana (as played by Elizabeth Debicki in The Crown). Though Succession’s J Smith-Cameron was a series standout as corporate lawyer Gerri, this is a White Lotus-off between four deserving actors; the absolute delight that is Jennifer Coolidge has the edge but Meghann Fahy was the deceptively layered star of season two.
Will win: Jennifer Coolidge
Should win: Meghann Fahy
Supporting actor in a comedy series
Odds are on two-time winner (and inveterate swearer) Brett Goldstein from Ted Lasso, or on the TV Academy switching to Abbott Elementary for the winsome Tyler James Williams. Never count out one of Hollywood’s most beloved men, Barry’s Henry Winkler, though I’d like to see Ebon Moss-Bachrach for his irascible yet charming Cousin Richie.
Will win: Brett Goldstein
Should win: Ebon Moss-Bachrach
Supporting actress in a comedy series
Previous winners Sheryl Lee Ralph and Hannah Waddingham stand a decent chance of repeating, given widespread goodwill for their respective series, though I suspect Ayo Edebiri, an immensely charming person on a series with awards momentum, could be a surprise.
Will win: Ayo Edebiri
Should win: Juno Temple
Supporting actor in a limited series
I would not be surprised if the award went to the late Ray Liotta, who died unexpectedly a few weeks before the premiere of Black Bird in 2022. Arguably more likely is his co-star Paul Walter Hauser, turning in critically acclaimed work as a real-life serial killer.
Will win: Paul Walter Hauser
Should win: Young Mazino
Supporting actress in a limited series
Not a real standout here with the exception Niecy Nash-Betts’s scene-stealing work in Dahmer, though recognition for the always excellent Merritt Wever is welcome. Claire Danes probably has the edge for conveying an Upper East Sider’s mental breakdown in Fleishman Is in Trouble.
Will win: Claire Danes
Should win: Merritt Wever
