Television networks and streaming platforms submitted 754 programs for Emmy consideration this year, and in preparing these Emmy nomination predictions I'm here to tell you I watched all of them. OK, most of them.
Some of them?
Let's not get hung up on semantics. I've emerged from my basement, blinking at this thing that I believe is called "sunlight," and catching up on everything I've missed these past few months. The Los Angeles Rams won the Super Bowl? You don't say! A gallon of gas costs more than $6? Good thing I haven't had time to go anywhere because I've been binging TV!
With Emmy nominations being announced Tuesday morning, it's finally time to unveil my predictions and set them free, while assuring you that I'm already hard at work for next year. All hail "The Bear"! And Jeff Bridges! (But, you know, that's just, like, my opinion, man.)
Comedy series
"Abbott Elementary"
"The Afterparty"
"Atlanta"
"Barry"
"Hacks"
"The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel"
"Only Murders in the Building"
"Ted Lasso"
Possible surprise: "What We Do in the Shadows"
Possible snub: "The Afterparty"
This shapes up to be one of the great comedy classes in Emmy history, making "Ted Lasso's" road to a repeat win difficult, though not impossible. "Only Murders in the Building" has the advantage of airing new episodes of an expertly crafted second season while voters consider rewarding its splendid debut year. "Hacks" remained an acerbic showcase for stars Jean Smart and Hannah Einbinder, while "Abbott Elementary" revived the broadcast network sitcom. Best of all was "Barry," executing a dark and often joke-free season that found its characters searching for a redemption that proved elusive. Plus, it had a motorbike chase scene through L.A. freeways ("710N") that rivaled the manic lunacy of the "Mad Max" movies. Lane-splitting is terrifying!
Comedy lead actress
Rachel Brosnahan, "The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel"
Quinta Brunson, "Abbott Elementary"
Kaley Cuoco, "The Flight Attendant"
Selena Gomez, "Only Murders in the Building"
Issa Rae, "Insecure"
Jean Smart, "Hacks"
Possible surprise: Tracee Ellis Ross, "black-ish"
Possible snub: Rae
It's entirely possible that both Ross and Rae, who have a dozen nominations between them, make it in for the final seasons of their well-liked, groundbreaking shows. Why not? Looking at their competition, Cuoco is talented enough, but "The Flight Attendant" was a frantic mess in its second go-around. Sarah Lancashire's delightful portrayal of Julia Child in "Julia" could be the wild card in the race as voters might not be entirely convinced that Gomez, best known for her singing, is a serious actress. Remember Jennifer Lopez's Oscar snub for "Hustlers"?
Comedy lead actor
Anthony Anderson, "black-ish"
Donald Glover, "Atlanta"
Bill Hader, "Barry"
Steve Martin, "Only Murders in the Building"
Martin Short, "Only Murders in the Building"
Jason Sudeikis, "Ted Lasso"
Possible surprise: Don Cheadle, "Black Monday"
Possible snub: Glover
"Atlanta's" third season was divisive, too weird for some and, in terms of acting, it belonged to Brian Tyree Henry. But Glover is the creative force behind the series, and I think he secures a spot over Cheadle, twice nominated for "Black Monday," a series Showtime canceled after its third season.
Comedy supporting actress
Alex Borstein, "The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel"
Hannah Einbinder, "Hacks"
Sarah Goldberg, "Barry"
Janelle James, "Abbott Elementary"
Kate McKinnon, "Saturday Night Live"
Amy Ryan, "Only Murders in the Building"
Juno Temple, "Ted Lasso"
Hannah Waddingham, "Ted Lasso"
Possible surprise: Meg Stalter, "Hacks"
Possible snub: Ryan
I'd be overjoyed if James and her "Abbott" co-star Sheryl Lee Ralph were both nominated, as they're essential members of the show's superb ensemble. But McKinnon will likely make it in for her farewell season on "Saturday Night Live" (which should be the only recognition for this tired show), and it's possible that the buzzy Stalter, who's developing her own show for HBO Max and A24, joins her "Hacks" co-star Einbinder this time around. I won't object, provided it doesn't come at the expense of Ryan, who ranged from sweet to delightfully dangerous as the lonely bassoonist in "Only Murders in the Building." Never mind the nomination; Ryan deserves the win.
Comedy supporting actor
Anthony Carrigan, "Barry"
Brett Goldstein, "Ted Lasso"
Brian Tyree Henry, "Atlanta"
Nick Mohammed, "Ted Lasso"
Tony Shalhoub, "The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel"
Kenan Thompson, "Saturday Night Live"
Henry Winkler, "Barry"
Bowen Yang, "Saturday Night Live"
Possible surprise: Paul W. Downs, "Hacks"
Possible snub: Thompson
Last year, four members of the "Ted Lasso" ensemble — Goldstein, Mohammed, Jeremy Swift and Brendan Hunt — earned nominations, but that number will likely be halved with "Barry" and "Atlanta" returning to the fold. A strong case could be made for Stephen Root as the revenge-obsessed Fuches on "Barry," as well as David Hyde Pierce's beautiful turn as the stubborn, supportive spouse in "Julia." And Ben Schwartz was a multi-dimensional delight in "The Afterparty." There's room for all provided that ... well ... I don't need to reiterate my feelings about the unfunny, over-nominated sketch comedy show, do I?
Drama series
"Better Call Saul"
"Ozark"
"Severance"
"Squid Game"
"Stranger Things"
"Succession"
"This Is Us"
"Yellowstone"
Possible surprise: "Yellowjackets"
Possible snub: "This Is Us"
"Yellowstone" has earned exactly one Emmy nomination for its first three seasons — production design for a narrative contemporary program. (It lost.) But like "Dallas," another primetime soap opera that was largely dismissed by voters until it became a phenomenon, "Yellowstone" has turned into an obsession for its audience, with viewers (and TV academy members) discovering it (usually through a personal recommendation, e.g. "you have to watch this!") and powering through its four seasons in the time it takes Kelly Reilly's Beth Dutton to destroy one of her enemies. (Not very long.)
Drama lead actress
Jennifer Aniston, "The Morning Show"
Laura Linney, "Ozark"
Melanie Lynskey, "Yellowjackets"
Mandy Moore, "This Is Us"
Kelly Reilly, "Yellowstone"
Zendaya, "Euphoria"
Possible surprise: Britt Lower, "Severance"
Possible snub: Aniston
I appreciate the work of Aniston and Sandra Oh and Jodie Comer, but let's be real: The latest seasons of "The Morning Show" and "Killing Eve" were patience-trying exercises. These women have all won plenty of awards, even Emmys (though, regrettably, not Oh), and with the right roles and good writing, they might win more. Meanwhile, there's Britt Lower, an unknown to most viewers before her star turn on "Severance." Watching her deliver a performance full of despair, anger, rebelliousness and humor was a true revelation. Lower doesn't have a history at the Emmys, though that could well change come Tuesday.
Drama lead actor
Jason Bateman, "Ozark"
Sterling K. Brown, "This Is Us"
Lee Jung-jae, "Squid Game"
Brian Cox, "Succession"
Bob Odenkirk, "Better Call Saul"
Jeremy Strong, "Succession"
Possible surprise: Kevin Costner, "Yellowstone"
Possible snub: Bateman
I'd be surprised if there is a surprise here, unless there's a "Yellowstone" wave and it lifts Costner's sturdy turn as the show's patriarch into the nominees. I don't see it, though. Too many soft-headed city folk casting the votes.
Drama supporting actress
Patricia Arquette, "Severance"
Julia Garner, "Ozark"
Jung Ho-yeon, "Squid Game"
Christina Ricci, "Yellowjackets"
Rhea Seehorn, "Better Call Saul"
J Smith-Cameron, "Succession"
Sarah Snook, "Succession"
Sydney Sweeney, "Euphoria"
Possible surprise: Sadie Sink, "Stranger Things"
Possible snub: Seehorn
In addition to sporting an abundance of alliterative actors with the letter "S" — Sarah Snook! Sydney Sweeney! Sadie Sink! — I'd guess this category might produce the most surprises on Emmy morning, as there's no shortage of commendable contenders. (I'll stop now. No more alliteration.) The sweeping, beautiful "Pachinko" figures to go mostly unrewarded, but we could see Oscar winner Yuh-Jung Youn pop up here. Sink's "Stranger Things" co-star, two-time nominee Millie Bobby Brown, might return. And who could forget Kim Joo-ryoung's spectacular Glass Stepping Stones exit from "Squid Game"? Voters have a lot of options. I'm fine with any and all of them, provided I don't have to write another Rhea Seehorn snub story.
Drama supporting actor
Nicholas Braun, "Succession"
Billy Crudup, "The Morning Show"
Kieran Culkin, "Succession"
Giancarlo Esposito, "Better Call Saul"
Matthew Macfadyen, "Succession"
Oh Young-soo, "Squid Game"
Alan Ruck, "Succession"
John Turturro, "Severance"
Possible surprise: Park Hae-soo, "Squid Game"
Possible snub: Ruck
It's strange to recall that "Succession" didn't earn a single acting nomination for its excellent debut season, and now, in its third year, it's poised to collect eight. The biggest question is whether Ruck can earn his first nomination. Yes, Connor Roy is dismissed and overlooked. But that doesn't mean that the talented actor playing him should be!
Limited series
"Dopesick"
"The Dropout"
"Maid"
"The Staircase"
"The White Lotus"
Possible surprise: "Under the Banner of Heaven"
Possible snub: "The Dropout"
The limited series acting categories will see a boost in nominees this year thanks to increased submissions, but the series group itself remains fixed at five, meaning that some splashy shows are going to be shafted. The season's early standouts — "The White Lotus," "Maid," "Dopesick" — are secure, leaving the late arrivals battling for the final two slots. "The Staircase" didn't arrive with the fanfare of "Gaslit," "Pam & Tommy," "Under the Banner of Heaven" or "The Dropout," but its sophisticated approach to the true-crime genre hooked viewers. "The Dropout," meanwhile, boasted Amanda Seyfried's lauded portrayal of Theranos CEO Elizabeth Holmes, a performance that will likely lift the show to a nomination.
Lead actress, limited series/TV movie
Jessica Chastain, "Scenes From a Marriage"
Toni Collette, "The Staircase"
Lily James, "Pam & Tommy"
Margaret Qualley, "Maid"
Julia Roberts, "Gaslit"
Amanda Seyfried, "The Dropout"
Possible surprise: Julia Garner, "Inventing Anna"
Possible snub: Chastain
"The First Lady" boasts A-list names — Oscar and Emmy winner Viola Davis, two-time Emmy winner Gillian Anderson, all-around queen Michelle Pfeiffer — but landed with a thud with critics. That doesn't mean voters won't be drawn to its stars. But the competition is fierce, including Anne Hathaway in another show that wasn't particularly embraced ("WeCrashed") and Garner in the unwieldy "Inventing Anna." And there's also Mackenzie Davis, the expressive star of "Station Eleven," a demanding series that actually earned its running time.
Lead actor, limited series/TV movie
Colin Firth, "The Staircase"
Andrew Garfield, "Under the Banner of Heaven"
Jared Leto, "WeCrashed"
Samuel L. Jackson, "The Last Days of Ptolemy Grey"
Michael Keaton, "Dopesick"
Sebastian Stan, "Pam & Tommy"
Possible surprise: Oscar Isaac, "Scenes from a Marriage"
Possible snub: Jackson
The hyped "Scenes From a Marriage" didn't make anyone forget Bergman, but it did boast exacting performances from Oscar winner Chastain and Isaac and that puts it in play. As with the lead actor category, voters have a bounty of choices, ranging from Stan's convincing nuttiness to the way Leto channeled the charismatic narcissism of WeWork founder Adam Neumann in "WeCrashed." And the always superb Ben Foster gave a powerful performance as an Auschwitz prisoner forced to box fellow inmates to the death in "The Survivor." All are worthy; there are just not enough spots.
Supporting actress, limited series/TV movie
Connie Britton, "The White Lotus"
Jennifer Coolidge, "The White Lotus"
Alexandra Daddario, "The White Lotus"
Kaitlyn Dever, "Dopesick"
Andie MacDowell, "Maid"
Laurie Metcalf, "The Dropout"
Anika Noni Rose, "Maid"
Possible surprise: Mare Winningham, "Dopesick"
Possible snub: Rose
It's possible that a handful of shows scoop up all the slots here, with limited series front-runner "The White Lotus" netting three (with Coolidge out in front for the eventual win), and "Maid" and "Dopesick" taking two apiece. And you could argue that the latter show deserves a trio of noms — Devers for her harrowing turn as an opioid addict, Winningham's heartbreaking work as her mom and Rosario Dawson bringing righteous fury to the role of a dogged DEA agent going after Purdue Pharma.
Supporting actor, limited series/TV movie
Naveen Andrews, "The Dropout"
Murray Bartlett, "The White Lotus"
Matthew Goode, "The Offer"
Wyatt Russell, "Under the Banner of Heaven"
Peter Sarsgaard, "Dopesick"
Michael Stuhlbarg, "Dopesick"
Steve Zahn, "The White Lotus"
Possible surprise: Seth Rogen, "Pam & Tommy"
Possible snub: Zahn
Bartlett, playing the fussy, put-upon resort manager, was essentially the lead of the series. Watching him unravel over the course of the show's six episodes was one of the TV year's great pleasures, bringing back memories of John Cleese's Basil Fawlty, up until now our favorite high-strung hotelier.
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