Last season, Joel Embiid became the NBA's Most Valuable Player with an impressive scoring average of 33.1 points per game. However, this season, he faces fierce competition from Nikola Jokic, the reigning MVP and another superstar big man. Embiid has taken the lead in betting odds after a remarkable performance where he scored 70 points in a single game, pushing his season average to an astounding 36.0 points per game.
The rivalry between Embiid and Jokic has captured the attention of basketball fans, and their showdown on Saturday when the Philadelphia 76ers face the Denver Nuggets is set to be a pivotal moment in the heated MVP race. But there is an added twist to this year's competition that affects Embiid more than any other player vying for the prestigious award.
In a new rule implemented before the 2023-24 season, the NBA now requires players to participate in a minimum of 65 games to be eligible for major individual awards or an All-NBA team. This regulation has financial implications and has forced sportsbooks to consider this factor when creating lines for awards futures, particularly for injury-prone players like Embiid.
This rule explains why Embiid, despite being the reigning MVP, initially opened the season as an underdog in the MVP race, with odds of +650 at DraftKings. Players like Jokic, Luka Doncic, and Giannis Antetokounmpo were viewed as more likely candidates. However, as the season progresses, sportsbooks have had to navigate the fine line between recognizing Embiid's outstanding performances on the court and his history of injuries.
The challenge for sportsbooks is to strike a balance by constantly adjusting the betting lines to attract bets across the board. David Lieberman, the pro basketball lead at Caesars, describes it as a 'balancing act.' During Embiid's record-breaking 70-point game, sportsbooks swiftly adjusted the MVP future lines to appeal to bettors who were less concerned about the price.
One aspect that complicates these awards is the reliance on narratives and recent performances. The odds can shift dramatically based on what people witness on any given night. Since Embiid's impressive game on Monday, many sportsbooks have seen a surge in bets for his MVP chances. At ESPN BET, Jokic has received 14.7% of the bets, while Embiid holds close behind with 14.5%.
According to DraftKings director of race and sports operations, Johnny Avello, the current odds reflect a 'don't get injured' price. If Embiid stays healthy and meets the 65-game criteria, he could be on track to secure the MVP once again. However, his injury history raises doubts about his ability to reach that threshold. He has already missed 10 games this season and can only afford to sit out seven more if he hopes to have a chance at repeating as MVP.
Embiid has made it clear that his primary focus is being ready for the playoffs. He admitted that if he fails to meet the game criteria, as long as he is dominant in April, that's all that matters to him. This mindset raises questions about whether winning the MVP is the ultimate goal for him.
If Embiid falls short of the 65-game requirement, it might appear to be Jokic's award to lose, benefiting those who placed bets on him. Still, the process of awarding the MVP is not always straightforward. Other players like Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Jayson Tatum remain contenders, with varying odds at different sportsbooks. Additionally, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's breakout season has elevated him to third place in MVP odds in most books.
The MVP race this season is not only a battle of statistics and skill but also a test of durability and availability. As fans eagerly wait for the outcome, the unpredictability and subjectivity of the award process could add an unexpected twist to the final result.
