As President Xi Jinping consolidates his power as China’s dictator-for-life, the Chinese economy continues to signal that his zero-COVID obsession and an expanding property and financial market crisis are inflicting extensive damage.
The latest evidence of that is an absence: last Friday, September consumer and producer price inflation data were supposed to be released, followed three hours later by the September trade data (surplus, exports and imports). And monthly data on production, investment and retail sales, plus the all-important GDP figures for the September quarter were due to be released today.
But after the inflation data was released on Friday morning, the timetable was ditched. The trade data was put back to 5pm Friday — and then didn’t happen. Then it was rescheduled for Monday (just “Monday” — no time given). That didn’t happen either. Then it was rescheduled to today, along with the production, retail sales, investment and GDP data.
But that megamix of data isn’t happening — it’s been postponed until next Monday.
Reuters reported on Tuesday morning that “a person answering the telephone in the media office at the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said the change was ‘due to adjustment to work arrangements’ but gave no further details”.
That GDP data has been highly anticipated after the world’s second-largest economy grew just 0.4% in the second quarter from a year earlier. Forecasts were for growth at an annual rate of 3.4% for the quarter — not good, but not a disaster as the economy shook itself free of Xi’s hardline zero-COVID policy (though the regime continues to shut down parts of China, and isolated Beijing last week as infections spread in other regions).
Also delayed was data for China’s home prices for September, which had been scheduled for publication on Wednesday. Along with the real estate investment data, the house price figures have worsened each month this year, confirming the continuing crunch in the sector which in turn is dragging down the rest of the economy.
Some analysts say the postponement is merely because the regime wants China and the world to concentrate on Xi’s coronation. Would anyone be offering that excuse if the data was good?
The thin-skinned Xi might have the Communist Party in his thrall, but the real world looks to be a lot more difficult.
