Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is available.
The team won’t admit it, and Jackson does not have an agent, which hinders his ability to package certain messaging. But around the NFL, teams are doing their due diligence. Those in the know ... know.
If the Carolina Panthers haven’t already called Ravens’ general manager Eric DeCosta, they should. Neglecting to do so would be a disservice to the team.
That doesn’t mean they should act.
Panthers coach Frank Reich said at the combine the Panthers will explore every option at quarterback. Like Carolina, any quarterback-needy team is likely checking in on the price of both trading for Jackson and what a realistic contract extension is. And that’s what makes acquiring Jackson so complicated. His value is more subjective than NFL front-office members or agents want to admit.
What is not overly complicated is explaining why Jackson does not align with Panthers’ plans.
The money doesn’t make sense for Carolina
On Tuesday, the Ravens put the non-exclusive tag on Jackson.
A non-exclusive tag allows Jackson to negotiate a new contract with any team. If he finds an offer he likes, Baltimore can match it, thus retaining him. If Baltimore declines, Jackson’s new team has to trade two first-round picks for the 2018 NFL MVP, who doesn’t turn 27 until January.
An exclusive tag would’ve meant Jackson plays the 2023 season for about $45 million, all of which counts against the Ravens’ already tight salary cap. The non-exclusive tag nets Jackson a 2023 salary of about $32 million, but almost certainly guarantees he’d be traded, and thus extended.
Carolina has been here before, flirting with a veteran quarterback seeking a new lucrative contract. In 2021 it was Matthew Stafford. A year ago: Deshaun Watson. Last spring, The Observer reported the Panthers could have landed Watson but were unwilling to meet Watson’s desired contract guarantees. On Monday, The Observer reported Carolina wasn’t prepared to meet quarterback Derek Carr’s $35 million per year demands. Carr signed a four-year, $150 million contract with New Orleans on Monday.
If Carolina was reluctant to overpay for quarterbacks before, why would that change for Jackson?
Jackson’s situation is unprecedented. He is the only first-round quarterback to play under a fifth-year option since the rookie wage scale was implemented in the 2011. His contract negotiations succeed Watson’s unparalleled off-season, which ended with the Browns trading three first-round picks to Houston for the embattled quarterback. Watson signed the largest single contract guarantee in NFL history, worth $230 million.
Many league executives, including Carolina’s David Tepper, consider Watson’s deal — particularly the guaranteed money — to be a reach.
But DeMaurice Smith, Executive Director of the National Football League Players Association, intimated last week the NFLPA hopes Jackson will land a fully guaranteed deal, and set a new precedent.
Jackson’s case for at least $200 million is valid when his body of work is compared to Watson’s.
Jackson is 26 years old, an NFL MVP, and is 45-16 as a starter. Over the past three years, the Ravens’ offensive EPA (expected points added) per play ranks sixth. Without him, they are 31st.
That data does not include Jackson’s 2019 MVP season.
Watson is three games over .500 as a starter and has never received an MVP vote. Watson’s best season with the Texans was in 2018. The team had an 11-5 record and Watson threw 26 touchdowns. The following season, Watson threw for 1,000 more yards (a career-high 4,823) tossed seven more touchdowns, and threw five fewer interceptions, but the Texans only won five games. Meanwhile, Jackson won MVP that year. As a starter, Jackson has never finished a season worse than two games above .500. Jackson has a legitimate case for making Watson money, especially when Watson’s off-field image is held against Jackson’s.
The Panthers could very well view Jackson as the most talented veteran quarterback ever available, but any deal still has to work within the team’s financial framework.
Frank Reich’s offense isn’t tailored to Jackson
Money aside, the Panthers’ offense is not built for Jackson.
He would be unlike any quarterback Reich, senior assistant Jim Caldwell, offensive coordinator Thomas Brown or quarterbacks coach Josh McCown have ever worked with.
The Panthers’ offense is likely going to be built around West Coast philosophies. Reich wants his quarterbacks to hit quick, timing-based throws that are designed to stretch the field horizontally. Slants, quick outs, spot routes, crossers, and level concepts were a staple of Reich’s offense with the Colts.
Carolina’s next quarterback will throw short, high-percentage passes that get the ball out of their hands fast.
Jackson (though a capable and proven passer) is best with the ball in his hands. During his time in Baltimore, Ravens’ former offensive coordinator Greg Roman built a run-first, zone-read scheme that forced defenses to stack the box. Roman deployed extra backs and tight ends to help block power-run concepts, and tied limited play-action passes to them.
Reich and the Panthers could adapt to Jackson, but that’s a lot easier said than it is coached. Reich has a system and like most coaches, he’s going to stick to his core philosophies while slightly modifying what he asks of whomever starts at quarterback.
The Panthers’ offensive roster would not maximize Jackson’s talents, either. Jackson is dependent on All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews. Carolina’s tight ends are among the league’s least productive. The Panthers’ receiving room would be an upgrade, but that is not saying much considering Baltimore’s wide receiver payroll has ranked 32nd, 25th, 30th, 20th, and 18th in the five years of Jackson’s rookie deal.
Carolina does have a hard-nosed offensive line, but it’s thin. The Panthers offensive line is one in-season injury away from regressing to league average or lower.
There are multiple teams ready-made for Jackson. Reports say Atlanta is comfortable starting Desmond Ridder. But last year, the team was on the verge of acquiring Watson. Why wouldn’t owner Arthur Blank and coach Arthur Smith covet Jackson? Considering the Falcons feature the most athletic tight end in football in Kyle Pitts, a No. 1 receiver in Drake London, and were second in rushing attempts, they probably do.
Miami makes sense, too. Jackson is from Miami. The Dolphins remain skeptical about quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. And pairing Jackson with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle would gift the league’s quickest team the fastest quarterback in NFL history.
Panthers are likely to target rookie QB
With Carr off the table, Jackson and Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers are the only franchise quarterbacks still available. Both options seem equally unlikely for Carolina, which leaves the Panthers poised to select a rookie quarterback in April’s draft.
During his scouting combine press conference, Fitterer said if the Panthers identify a rookie quarterback they prefer, then they will “go get him.” In November, The Observer reported Carolina would like to build around a quarterback on a rookie contract.
After C.J. Stroud (Ohio State), Will Levis (Kentucky), and Anthony Richardson (Flordia) all impressed at the combine, the Panthers are positioned to land one of the top four quarterbacks. Carolina also met with Stroud, Levis, Richardson, and Alabama’s Bryce Young last week.
Carolina has the firepower to trade up in the draft. The Panthers currently hold pick No. 9. The quarterback-needy teams in front of them are Atlanta (No. 8), Las Vegas (No. 7), Detroit (No. 6), Seattle (No. 5), and Indianapolis (No. 4). However, that’s a lot of unknown for the team to forecast.
All that uncertainty likely makes trading up to No. 5 or No. 3 too risky. Trading for the No. 1 pick is the only way to guarantee “your guy” will be there. Carolina could move up eight spots with the right trade package. The Bears are reportedly seeking multiple first-round picks. The Panthers also have two second-round picks, two third-round picks, and two fourth-round picks in this upcoming draft.
Drafting a rookie signal-caller would afford Reich time to develop the next face of the franchise while simultaneously ensuring the Panthers do not frivolously spend at quarterback.
