The exit poll is predicting a Labour landslide victory of 410 seats in parliament, with the Conservatives reduced to just 131, and Reform potentially winning as many as 13.
Here you’ll find expert reaction to the exit poll and the official results as they come in. We’ll be updating this page throughout election night so bookmark it and return for the latest reactions, or follow along on X (formerly Twitter) or our new WhatsApp channel.
Tory leadership race starts to take shape
Victoria Honeyman, Associate Professor of Politics, University of Leeds
We are seeing some of the big hitters from the Conservative Party lose their seats, for example, Penny Mordaunt in Portsmouth North. This leads to an interesting phenomenon where you begin to view the runners and riders for the Conservative party leadership, and you get to see whether or not they’re actually going to be in the party … If you want to challenge for the leadership of the party, then essentially you need to be in parliament.
We’re also seeing other people really begin to set the tone of the campaigns that they want to fight. So for example, Suella Braverman in her speech at the Hustings, talking about the mistakes that the Conservative Party have made.
A big night for Reform
Francesco Rigoli, Reader in Psychology, City, University of London
The rightwing populist narrative is alive and well in the UK, and Farage is its unquestionable champion.
Will the Tories seek to compete against Farage over this narrative? Or will they seek an alliance? Major reconfigurations will occur on the right, but it is no longer fanciful to picture Farage winning the next election.
The Brexit referendum and the recent elections in Europe and the US demonstrate that rightwing populist parties can suddenly surge in popularity and win elections – Farage aims to follow this trend and he should not be underestimated.
Lone Sorensen, Associate Professor of Political Communication, University of Leeds
Notable in this election is the Reform Party’s preference for a charismatic, personalistic leader in Nigel Farage, who, having won his Clacton seat, is promising “something that is going to stun all of you” in his acceptance speech. Reform is looking set to be able to have a significant impact in the incoming parliament with multiple seats accompanying Farage on the benches.
This will enable the Reform UK leader to capitalise on his tactic of disruption, which is one of his populist hallmarks. We can expect a much more chaotic and difficult-to-control practice of norm-breaking from Farage and his fellow MPs to make life challenging for Starmer and the more sober opposition.
Mark Garnett, Senior Lecturer in Politics, Lancaster University
Rightly, the experts have treated the likely number of Reform UK MPs with caution. However, Farage’s party has consistently been outpolling the Conservatives in results declared so far. Farage has won in Clacton and Reform is now likely to become the most potent rightwing force in British politics for the next five years at least, attracting the kind of populist-leaning Conservative activists who have been the dominant force in their party since Brexit. As things stand, it is very possible that there will not be a significant party claiming the toxic Tory brand at the next general election.
Jeremy Corbyn wins his seat as an independent
Pippa Catterall, Professor of History and Policy, University of Westminster
Jeremy Corbyn has retained his seat in Islington North, this time as an independent, with a stonking majority of around 8,000 over his previous party. It’s not surprising that he has won this seat yet again, having represented it for over 40 years now. He is very popular, works hard, and is, I suspect, seen by his constituents as having been treated badly by Keir Starmer. It will be interesting to see how much of a thorn in the side he is for the new, we presume, prime minister in the coming parliament.
Seat count and vote share mismatch?
Phil Tomlinson, Professor of Industrial Strategy and Co-Director of the Centre for Governance, Regulation and Industrial Strategy, University of Bath
As expected, the exit poll points to Labour winning a large parliamentary majority, although possibly on a lower share of the popular vote than when losing in 2017.
Labour’s victory therefore might not be as convincing as the parliamentary arithmetic suggests. It is more a case of being a beneficiary of the first-past-the-post electoral system, the widespread rejection of the Conservatives and the surge in support for the Reform Party (which has split the right-wing vote), rather than being swept into power on a wave of new enthusiasm.
Nevertheless, after 14 years, it looks like Labour will now get the chance to govern. They inherit the most challenging set of circumstances of any incoming government since 1974 – a stagnant economy, a cost of living crisis and a high tax burden alongside record high NHS waiting lists, crumbling infrastructure, and a much-diminished public realm.
Labour is pinning its hopes on generating higher economic growth to solve these problems – though its modest manifesto commitments have left many economists sceptical this can be achieved. There are no short-term fixes, and things may get worse before they get better.
Low turnout
Pippa Catterall, Professor of History and Policy, University of Westminster
It is, of course, early to be starting to discern trends beyond that Labour have won all the seats so far and Reform have come second everywhere. But the other thing which is striking is that the turnout seems to be substantially down.
Let’s take Newcastle upon Tyne Central. Because of boundary changes, we’re not of course comparing exactly like with like, but it’s interesting to note that in the 2019 election the turnout was 67%. Now it’s 53.8%. Every single seat declared so far has had a turnout below 60%. I think this is significant and I also think certainly in these, what are now Labour-Reform battles, we’re likely to see that trend continue.
Toby James, Professor of Politics and Public Policy, University of East Anglia
At 58%, turnout is the lowest it’s been since 1918, based on the results in so far. This low turnout could be explained by a perception that the election was a foregone conclusion. Disillusionment with politics and the parties may also have been a factor. Perhaps new voter ID laws have also played a role.
What the exit poll means
Victoria Honeyman, Associate Professor of Politics, University of Leeds
An unprecedented result
Stuart Wilks-Heeg, Professor of Politics, University of Liverpool
The exit poll suggests Labour’s majority will fall just short of what the party achieved in 1997 and that the projections in MRPs before the election slightly overestimated levels of Labour support.
But this result needs to be put in context. It represents a far larger number of Labour gains than in 1997. The 1997 landslide was the product of Labour clawing its way back over the course of 14 years from a calamitous electoral defeat in 1983. Keir Starmer started as Labour leader from a position just as bad as 1983, but has managed to turn that around and deliver a landslide within a single parliamentary term. This is absolutely unprecedented.
The exit poll also points to a disastrous outcome for the Conservatives. Of course, they had reasons to fear worse, but 131 seats would be even fewer than they got in 1906, previously their record defeat. It will take a lot to turn the party around and there will be bitter recriminations within the party about the scale of this defeat and the reasons for it.
There was speculation that the Lib Dems could displace the Tories as the second party. This won’t come to pass, but they will be delighted with a result that restores their parliamentary representation to where it was at its peak in 2005.
The SNP looks to be facing a collapse in its support and this will almost certainly benefit Labour. Reform has done better than predicted, based on the exit poll, and if the party does have a dozen or so MPs, it will be able to make an impression at Westminster. The Greens will be disappointed with a haul of only two seats.
The early results should confirm whether the exit poll is correct, but there is no grounds to assume that it isn’t. It’s record in predicting the outcome is excellent and there can be no doubt that the outcome is a Labour landslide.
Devolved nations
Stephen Clear, Lecturer in Law, Bangor University
What is interesting about the exit polls is the two main political parties forecasted votes in the devolved nations of the United Kingdom. If true, Labour has seen a marginal loss of support of approximately 2% in Wales. On the doorsteps, issues of scandal surrounding Welsh Labour first minister, Vaughan Gething, and his loss of a motion of no confidence in the Senedd were coming up.
It’s also clear that the 20 mile per hour speed limit in Wales was a key driving factor in dissatisfaction with Labour in this general election. Yet by contrast, Labour could be set to benefit from Scotland’s dissatisfaction with the Scottish National Party and its leadership, with a predicted 18% increase in support for Labour in Scotland.
If true, that does not bode well for Scottish independence, with perhaps less evidence of an appetite for a second independence referendum. And at the very least, a result along the lines of the exit poll would inevitably put the independence calls backwards.
Exit poll suggests 10 seats for the SNP
Victoria Honeyman, Associate Professor of Politics, University of Leeds
One thing to mention about the exit poll is that it’s suggesting that the SNP are not going to have a very good night in Scotland. Now, this will probably be largely overshadowed by the fact that the Conservatives are having a not very good night everywhere.
But if the numbers are to be believed, then the SNP is really paying the price for a number of things. They’re paying the price for the fact that they’ve obviously had a number of issues. There were some legal issues, Nicola Sturgeon has resigned as their leader, they have a new leader. But there’s also an issue about independence, where independence sits in the current debates, and also about the record of the SNP and government in Scotland.
And therefore I really think that keeping an eye on what is happening with those SNP MPs would be very important and very indicative of where the SNP sits now in Scottish national politics. But also where it sits in UK politics, because it’s been able to claim fairly successfully for the past decade that it is the voice of Scotland.
If their numbers really do crash, then would they still be able to say legitimately that they are the voice of the Scottish people? Probably not with the same kind of force that they’ve been able to do so far.
Labour in Wales
Huw Lewis, Senior Lecturer in International Politics, Aberystwyth University
The exit poll suggests that this is likely to be an extremely good night for the Labour party, seeing it regaining a substantial amount of ground. As part of that, we’re expecting to see Labour gaining seats in Scotland, in England, and also we’re expecting to see Labour regaining seats here in Wales.
However, a really interesting feature of the analysis of the exit poll so far is that it’s an expectation in Wales to see Labour regaining seats but on a reduced share of the vote, with some analysis suggesting that we could see Labour losing as much as 2% from its vote back in 2019. While that may not be that significant tonight, it should be a sign of warning for the Labour party looking ahead to the next devolved election in 2026, particularly given that at the devolved level, Labour is led by an extremely unpopular first minister in Vaughan Gething.
So while it’s likely to see a case of Labour winning ground in Wales in terms of seats, the share of the vote could be something that’s a cause of concern looking to the future.
‘Clear anger’ among the Conservatives
Stephen Clear, Lecturer in Law, Bangor University
There’s clear anger amongst some of the big names within the Conservative Party tonight, and former justice secretary Sir Robert Buckland has now been defeated in Swindon, a seat he has previously held since 2010.
The uncharacteristic anger was clear in his passionate defeat speech. His remarks tonight on the BBC that he’s had enough of circus politics are an indication of the fury that some within the party now hold towards their colleagues. The gloves are now evidently off, and scathing thoughts are being exchanged.
He is, after all, normally a mild mannered politician. His remarks that the Conservative Party need to wake up quickly and wake up now, and how he’s fed up of personal agendas of individuals, are clear that all is not well. He attributes his comments of ill discipline and unprofessional campaigning to former Home Secretary Suella Braverman and others, and offers a scathing assessment of how his own colleagues need to get to grips with their portfolios.
What is telling is that the night is not over yet and Conservatives are already looking at what the problems were within their own campaign. Buckland notes that he felt what was missing from the Conservative campaign was a narrative for younger voters to get behind. With the Conservatives predicted to slump to 131 MPs tonight, the lowest number ever, efforts to regroup and unite the Tory party are going to be extremely challenging following this election result.
Galloway’s Rochdale dream over
*Parveen Akhtar, Senior Lecturer in Politics, History and International Relations, Aston University *
Only 127 days after being elected as MP for Rochdale, George Galloway has lost the seat to Labour’s Paul Waugh. The controversial leader of the Workers Party of Great Britain, who only months earlier overturned a near 10,000 majority to win Rochdale, has lost by 1,440 votes.
After being expelled from the Labour Party in 2003 for his criticism of the Iraq War, Galloway has found success in capitalising on anger, particularly from Muslim voters, over foreign policy. Using his campaign to criticise military action in the Middle East won Galloway Bethnal Green and Bow in 2005; galvanising support around the issue of Gaza won him Bradford West in 2012. Galloway won Rochdale in February by again mobilising the Muslim vote.
Conflict in the Middle East is important in constituencies with a significant Muslim population. But whilst capitalising on this has provided Galloway with a winning formula, it is also a short term one. Since leaving the Labour Party over two decades ago, Galloway has never been re-elected. Tonight means his search goes on.
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This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
