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Ballotpedia
Ballotpedia
David Luchs

Election forecasters rate CA-22 Toss-up or Tilt Republican as Valadao (R) and Villegas (D) run under new district lines

Incumbent David Valadao (R) and Randy Villegas (D) are running in the general election for California's 22nd Congressional District on November 3, 2026.

The Sacramento Bee's Mathew Miranda said, "Valadao has largely withstood challengers in the Democratic-leaning Central Valley swing district since he entered Congress in 2012. He faces new challenges this year, however, including changes from Proposition 50’s redistricting, criticism from his key vote to cut Medicare and declining approval ratings for President Donald Trump."

The election is taking place in the context of redistricting changing the boundaries of the 22nd District from those used in 2024. Inside Elections' Nathaniel Rakich said the new district lines "would make it easier for Democrats to dislodge Valadao, who has frustrated them for years by overperforming the top of the ticket. But this district, too, is trending Republican; it would have voted for Biden by 17 points in 2020 but Trump by 2 points in 2024." As of July 2026, major election forecasters rated the general election Toss-up or Tilt Republican.

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