El Niño might be back later this year; major climate agencies that closely watch the tropical Pacific have recently updated their outlooks. Latest observations indicate that the ongoing La Niña event is losing its strength as the sea surface temperature in the central Pacific is rising and moving towards neutral levels.
Both theAustralian Bureau of Meteorology and theNOAA Climate Prediction Center forecast models suggest that a likely transition to neutral conditions could take place by early autumn 2026. After that, the majority of the models signal a potential El Niño outbreak during the second half of the year. What the forecasters remind us is that it is difficult to get an accurate forecast for such a long lead time. Notwithstanding, the possibility of a warming phase is drawing attention because it tends to affect global temperatures and weather extremes.
