- NOAA's Climate Prediction Center now puts the odds of a "very strong" El Niño this fall and winter above 90%, and gives it a 69% shot at becoming the most powerful event on record dating back to 1950 — and the World Meteorological Organization said on September 3 that the odds of the pattern lasting through February are now close to certain.
- Ecuador has already gone further than any other country in the region: a July orange alert covering 17 provinces was upgraded to a nationwide red alert on August 29.
- Peru declared a water-deficit emergency in 16 regions in mid-August, while Colombia has declared a national disaster over water shortages in more than half its municipalities and is bracing for possible power shortfalls.
- El Salvador and Panama both declared drought states of emergency on August 25, with roughly 6.9 million quintals of Central American corn, beans, and sorghum now at risk and Panama Canal traffic already being cut back.
Off the coast of Peru and Ecuador, the ocean has been running a fever for months. By July, water temperatures in the far-eastern tropical Pacific were sitting nearly 3 degrees Celsius above the long-term average, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has kept its El Niño Advisory in place through mid-August, warning that a very strong event is now more likely than not to become one of the biggest on record.
