A WARMING “El Niño” global weather event is now 80% likely to happen this summer, the World Meteorological Organisation’s (WMO) scientists have found.
The UN body has warned countries to prepare for the natural phenomenon, which sees the warming of sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean push up global temperatures, compounding human-driven climate change and triggering even more extreme weather.
It comes after the last El Niño event contributed to soaring temperatures that saw 2024 become the warmest year on record.
The world’s average temperature also exceeded the key climate threshold of 1.5C above the 1850-1900 average for the first time that year.
When is El Niño predicted to hit?
An El Niño event this year is likely to take place between June and August 2026, according to the WMO forecast models.
Sea-surface temperature in the central-eastern Equatorial Pacific – the area used as a monitoring reference – was approaching El Niño thresholds in late April to mid-May, according to observations from different platforms used by WMO.
Probabilities that it will continue until at least November is near or above 90%, the scientists also found.
What is El Niño weather?
The El Niño and La Niña phenomena are used to describe the warming and cooling of sea surface temperature that occurs every few years, typically concentrated in the central-east equatorial Pacific, the Met Office explains.
The two are what is known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.
An El Niño is "declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5 °C above the long-term average".
La Niña is the term adopted for the opposite side of the fluctuation, which sees "episodes of cooler-than-average sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific", sometimes 3-5C less.
La Niña is still present in the Pacific Ocean, albeit weakly, and has been present since December 2024.
It has seen global temperatures lower, causing 2025 to be slightly cooler than 2024, which was the world's hottest year on record.
Experts have said that there is a 80% chance that El Niño will emerge in the summer, between June and August.
What has the UN said about El Niño?
The UN said countries should treat the potential event as “an urgent climate warning” as the world already faces devastating impacts from increasingly severe weather, as fossil fuel pollution continues to drive global warming.
If the climate phenomenon occurs this year, it will increase the chances of 2027 becoming the next record-breaking year, UN scientists have warned.
In a video statement on Tuesday, UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres said: “The science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty.
“The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is.
“El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther and cross borders with devastating speed.
“The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis – ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable and delivering early warning systems for all.”
What are experts saying about El Niño?
Gareth Redmond-King, head of international at the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit, said: “With global food supplies already under heavy strain from climate change and strangled off fertiliser supply flows in the Strait of Hormuz, confirmation of El Niño is bad news.
“We import two-fifths of our food in the UK, and with three of the worst harvests in England in the last five years, food prices are already on track to be 50% higher by November than they were five years ago.
“But in many poorer parts of the world, the havoc El Niño will wreak as it likely delivers another hottest year, in 2027, will be devastating for many farmers, and a question of life or death for far too many people.”
Ruth Fuller, chief adviser on climate change at WWF, said the event will push an already overheating planet into more dangerous territory for people and nature by disrupting weather patterns, increasing the risk and severity of Amazon fires, and damaging ocean ecosystem.
“Here in the UK, with May temperatures already breaking records, extreme weather is becoming the new normal, putting lives, livelihoods and wildlife at risk,” she said.
“We need to end our dependence on fossil fuels, invest in clean energy, and restore nature at scale.”
