Call it a market correction. Teams have devalued starting pitching so much—by putting artificial governors on pitch counts, worshipping the “Third Time Around” rubric, adding a fifth day to what is “normal” rest, embracing openers and relying on more and more power relievers with a fastball/slider combo—that suddenly contenders are waking up to the idea that they need starting pitchers to get into the postseason, no less run through it.
From Blake Snell to Justin Verlander to Dylan Cease to Eduardo Rodriguez, the push to the Aug. 1 trade deadline includes a heavy emphasis on starting pitching. The Angels jumped the market late Wednesday night by grabbing Lucas Giolito from the White Sox, along with reliever Reynaldo López.
How bad is starting pitching? Since expansion began in 1961, the five worst winning percentages for starting pitchers all have happened in the past five seasons, including this one (.479). Starters have become game managers, tasked with a low bar: Don’t lose the game.
In this worst-ever environment for starting pitchers, if you do have a starter who can take the ball with the idea of actually winning the game, you have an edge.
With a preponderance of starters in play, here are some big names in new places we’d like to see before the deadline hits at 6 p.m. on Tuesday.
Blake Snell to the Rays
The Padres are the most confoundingly bad team in baseball. A talent-rich team is 31–39 since starting 18–15. There are no signs that this team is going to play .644 baseball to the finish line (38–21), which would get them to 87 wins. San Diego just has not been consistent enough.
That said, they probably will show a run at some point, so a complete teardown is not in order, especially when Petco Park is packed every night. GM A.J. Preller may try to thread a needle, and if it means trading either Snell or Josh Hader, both free agents to be, I keep Hader because a closer can impact more games.
Tampa Bay must get a starter, especially with Zach Eflin dealing with a chronic knee issue, Taj Bradley, 22, facing workload issues, and Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs out for the year.
And doesn’t Kevin Cash deserve a postseason mulligan for pulling Snell in the 2020 World Series?
Justin Verlander to the Astros or Dodgers
This is tricky. Verlander is due as much as $92 million through 2025 if you include his vesting option. He will be 43 in that last season. He has a no-trade clause. He’s been vintage Verlander lately: a 1.46 ERA in his past six starts while allowing only one home run and a .168 batting average. He holds his stuff deep into games about as well as he ever has—.191 average the third time around.
Who knows what kind of handshake agreement Verlander has with Mets owner Steve Cohen? But if Verlander now sees the Mets are not as close to winning as he thought when he signed, moving on to the Dodgers and that market or back to Houston makes sense.
Cody Bellinger to the Yankees
The Yankees have the worst slugging percentage against breaking pitches, and they rank 26th in OPS by left-handed hitters. Right-handed power pitchers can shut down what is a thin New York lineup.
But wait. The Cubs are rolling. They are back at .500. Trading a middle-of-the-order bat just became a lot more difficult for a big market team on the rise.
Nolan Arenado to the Dodgers
This makes too much sense. The Dodgers are loaded with young pitchers with swing-and-miss stuff, which is exactly what the Cardinals need. Nolan Gorman can slide over to his natural position to replace Arenado at third base. Arenado comes home to SoCal. The Dodgers vastly upgrade their defense at third base and still have payroll room to court Shohei Ohtani.
Michael Lorenzen and José Cisnero to the D-Backs
Arizona has been fading fast. The D-Backs’ lack of depth is getting exposed, which happens this time of year with young teams. It needs at least two pitchers to stay in the race. The Tigers present one-stop shopping.
Featuring his high-spin four-seamer more this year, Lorenzen is the right kind of pitcher to blossom even more under Arizona pitching coach Brent Strom.
Eduardo Rodriguez to the Phillies
Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski once called Rodriguez “a top of the rotation” talent when they were together in Boston, including the world championship season of 2018. Dombrowski had counted on rookie Andrew Painter to fortify the rotation, but he was never healthy this year and now is lost for next season after elbow surgery.
Rodriguez does come with some risk. He could opt out after this season of the three years and $49 million left on his deal, so the trade valuation gets tricky.
Jack Flaherty to the Reds
There is a ton of pressure on Cincinnati not to let this deadline pass without shoring up their pitching. Flaherty is the kind of battle-tested veteran this staff needs down the stretch. After an ugly 6.18 ERA in his first eight starts, Flaherty has pitched to a 3.31 ERA in his past 11.
Lance Lynn to the Rangers
This is a pitching insurance policy. What would Texas want with a pitcher with a 6.47 ERA who has allowed the most hits, home runs and earned runs in the league? Lynn is striking out a career-best 10.8 batters per nine innings. He has dominated right-handed hitters (.208 with .368 slug). There’s a niche for Lynn as a spot starter, a piggyback starter behind Andrew Heaney or a multi-inning bullpen piece.
