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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Sport
Will Unwin

EFL and National League: the ups, downs and what can happen next

Clockwise from top left: celebrations for Plymouth; Burnley's Nathan Tella; Thierry Nevers of Bradford battles with Rochdale's Toby Mullarkey; Leyton Orient celebrate promotion; and Wrexham's Paul Mullin is mobbed after scoring against Notts County.
Clockwise from top left: celebrations for Plymouth; Burnley's Nathan Tella; Rochdale in action against Bradford; Leyton Orient celebrate promotion; and joy for Wrexham. Composite: Shutterstock, Getty Images

Championship

Automatic promotion As we have known for a while, Burnley will be back in the Premier League next season. A win on Saturday at home to relegation-threatened QPR would guarantee the title. They are likely to be joined in the top flight by Sheffield United, who are seven points clear of third with a game in hand and need three points from four matches to guarantee promotion. The Blades will effectively be up if Luton and Middlesbrough draw at Kenilworth Road on Monday given the goal difference but the earliest they can officially secure second spot is Wednesday.

Vincent Kompany manager of Burnley celebrates after the full-time whistle with Jack Cork of Burnley after clinching promotion to the Premier League
Vincent Kompany has guided Burnley back to the big time with ease. Photograph: Richard Lee/Shutterstock

Playoffs Luton and Middlesbrough are almost certain to finish third and fourth, although the order could change. It leaves two spots up for grabs. Three points separate fifth and 11th, a sign of how tight it is. Blackburn and West Brom have played one game fewer than their rivals, giving them a theoretical advantage over Millwall, Coventry, Sunderland, Norwich and Preston.

Relegation It is bad news for the historic county of Lancashire, with Wigan and Blackpool occupying the bottom two spots, seven and six points adrift of safety respectively, with three games to go. Wigan must win at home to Millwall on Saturday to have any chance of surviving. Blackpool play at Birmingham on Saturday and also could be relegated. The third spot for the drop into League One will go to one of five teams: Reading, Cardiff, QPR, Huddersfield or Rotherham.

Pos Team P GD Pts
1 Burnley 42 48 92
2 Sheff Utd 42 29 82
3 Luton 43 17 75
4 Middlesbrough 43 30 74
5 Millwall 43 8 65
6 Blackburn 42 -2 64
7 West Brom 42 9 63
8 Coventry 43 9 63
9 Sunderland 43 9 62
10 Norwich 43 8 62
11 Preston North End 43 -8 62
12 Watford 43 2 59
13 Swansea 43 0 59
14 Bristol City 43 -3 53
15 Birmingham 43 -7 53
16 Hull 43 -11 53
17 Stoke 43 4 52
18 Rotherham 42 -10 46
19 Cardiff 42 -14 45
20 Huddersfield 43 -19 44
21 QPR 43 -27 44
22 Reading 43 -19 43
23 Blackpool 43 -25 38
24 Wigan 43 -28 37

League One

Automatic promotion It is a four-way fight, with Plymouth and Ipswich the ones to catch. Sheffield Wednesday sit two points below Argyle and one short of the Tractor Boys, having played a game more. Barnsley have a slight chance but overhauling their six-point deficit on Ipswich looks a tough ask with four games to go.

Conor Chaplin celebrates after scoring for Ipswich
Conor Chaplin has scored 25 goals to help Ipswich into the top two in League One. Photograph: Joe Toth/Shutterstock

Playoffs Barnsley will probably have to settle for a playoff place with the other team that fall short. The candidates to join them are Peterborough, Bolton and Derby, realistically. Optimistic Wycombe and Portsmouth fans would make their case but it looks unlikely for the former and nigh-on impossible for the latter.

Relegation Forest Green are down and three clubs will join them. Above them sit four teams separated by three points: Accrington, who are second bottom with one win in 10 matches, Morecambe, Cambridge and Oxford. All four face games at teams in the top half on Saturday. The following Saturday Accrington play Cambridge and Oxford travel to Forest Green, who are at Cambridge in their final fixture. MK Dons are also vulnerable and poor form means Port Vale (three points form their past eight games) will be looking nervously over their shoulder. Burton and Cheltenham are not mathematically safe but should survive.

Pos Team P GD Pts
1 Plymouth 42 28 89
2 Ipswich 42 54 88
3 Sheff Wed 43 39 87
4 Barnsley 42 36 82
5 Peterborough 43 22 73
6 Bolton 42 23 72
7 Derby 43 21 72
8 Wycombe 43 13 68
9 Portsmouth 43 10 65
10 Charlton 43 4 58
11 Lincoln City 42 -1 56
12 Shrewsbury 42 -5 56
13 Fleetwood Town 43 3 54
14 Exeter 43 2 53
15 Bristol Rovers 41 -9 52
16 Burton Albion 41 -22 49
17 Cheltenham 42 -17 47
18 Port Vale 43 -22 46
19 Milton Keynes Dons 43 -21 43
20 Oxford Utd 42 -11 41
21 Cambridge Utd 42 -27 40
22 Morecambe 43 -32 38
23 Accrington Stanley 42 -37 38
24 Forest Green 43 -51 27

League Two

Automatic promotion Leyton Orient sealed promotion in defeat at Gillingham on Tuesday, on a good night for Northampton and Stevenage, who grew their advantage over fourth-placed Stockport after the Hatters drew at fifth-placed Carlisle. Bradford have the most realistic hopes of a top-three finish among the rest of the chasing pack. Orient will be champions on Saturday if they win at home to Crewe and Stevenage fail to beat Mansfield.

Champagne celebrations as Leyton Orient climb back to League One.
Champagne celebrations as Leyton Orient climb back to League One. Photograph: Joe Giddens/PA

Playoffs Four of Stockport, Carlisle, Bradford, Salford and Mansfield will almost certainly make up the playoffs unless either Northampton or Stevenage are overhauled and dragged into an extended season.

Relegation With the best will in the world, Rochdale look done and dusted. Their 102-year stay in the Football League will surely end. They are eight points adrift of safety with three matches to play and can keep hope alive only if they win at Stockport on Saturday and Crawley do not win at Hartlepool. Hartlepool v Crawley is a meeting of the teams immediately above Rochdale and a 1-0 home win would put those clubs level on points and goal difference, which would be almighty fun. Harrogate, Colchester and AFC Wimbledon are not mathematically safe but their chances of relegation look slim.

Pos Team P GD Pts
1 Leyton Orient 42 27 84
2 Northampton 43 18 77
3 Stevenage 42 19 76
4 Stockport County 43 24 72
5 Carlisle 43 23 72
6 Bradford 42 18 71
7 Salford City 43 17 69
8 Mansfield 42 16 69
9 Barrow 43 -2 62
10 Sutton Utd 43 -6 57
11 Swindon 42 3 55
12 Grimsby 42 -6 55
13 Tranmere 43 -4 54
14 Doncaster 43 -17 52
15 Walsall 43 -3 51
16 Crewe 41 -10 51
17 Gillingham 43 -13 51
18 Newport County 42 -5 50
19 AFC Wimbledon 43 -7 47
20 Colchester 43 -7 46
21 Harrogate Town 42 -9 45
22 Crawley Town 43 -24 42
23 Hartlepool 43 -26 39
24 Rochdale 43 -26 34

National League

Automatic promotion Wrexham had enough drama for a whole season in their 3-2 win over second-placed Notts County and are on course for a calmer ride towards the one automatic promotion slot. They play at home to Boreham Wood on Saturday evening and will secure the title if Notts County lose earlier at relegated Maidstone or if they match Notts’ result.

Wrexham fans
Wrexham fans hope for a Hollywood end to the season with promotion back to the Football League. Photograph: Christopher Thomond/The Guardian

Playoffs County look destined for the six-team playoffs despite being 36 points better off than Bromley in the final playoff place. Chesterfield, Woking and Barnet are guaranteed playoff spots. Boreham Wood and Bromley complete the picture but Eastleigh and Southend hope to crash the party.

Relegation Definitely joining Maidstone in regional football are Scunthorpe and Yeovil, who were in the Championship in 2010-11 and 2013-14 respectively. Torquay looked doomed but five wins in a row from the end of March have put them in contention to stay up. The task is tough, though. They are three points behind Maidenhead and York with two games remaining and an inferior goal difference and head to Altrincham before hosting Wrexham on the final day.

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